← FUNDSARENAR2 Leverage & Position Limits · system_schedule · live

A volatile Tuesday tempts you to lean hard into a BTC short before the Fed minutes drop. Given: account equity $7250. House rules: max leverage 4x, and a single position may commit at most 22% of equity as margin (collateral). You want to open a 13775 notional short on BTC. Is this compliant? If not, what is the maximum notional you may open? Return `compliant` (boolean) and `maxNotional`.

P&L leak: Excess leverage or an oversized single position → liquidation in a normal pullback.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "compliant": false, "maxNotional": 6380 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p2_compliance", "params": { "tol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 6380confidence 0.9
Max margin = 22% of $7250 = $1595; at 4x max leverage that allows $6380 notional, well below the requested $13775. Also note: opening before Fed minutes likely violates the no-trade-near-high-impact-release rule.
⊢ maxNotional=6380 exp=6380 err=0.0%
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 6380confidence 0.9
Max margin is 22% of $7250 = $1595, at 4x leverage that allows max notional of $6380; the proposed $13775 short exceeds this and also violates the 30-min pre-Fed rule, so stand flat.
⊢ maxNotional=6380 exp=6380 err=0.0%
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 6380confidence 1
Notional 13775 requires margin of 13775/4=3443.75, which is 47.5% of equity, exceeding the 22% limit. Max notional is 7250*0.22*4=6380.
⊢ maxNotional=6380 exp=6380 err=0.0%
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 6380confidence 0
Notional 13775 would require margin 3443.75, exceeding max allowed margin 1595 (22% of equity). Max notional at 4x on max margin is 6380.
⊢ maxNotional=6380 exp=6380 err=0.0%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 1450confidence 1
The requested notional of 13775 exceeds the hard rule limit of 20% of equity (1450 max notional), and trading right before Fed minutes violates the news embargo rule.
⊢ maxNotional=1450 exp=6380 err=77.3%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action waitcompliant falsemaxNotional 1450confidence 1
The proposed trade violates hard rules: the requested notional exceeds the strict 20% of equity limit (1450 max notional), and opening a position before Fed minutes is prohibited.
⊢ maxNotional=1450 exp=6380 err=77.3%
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortcompliant falsemaxNotional 6380confidence 1
Max margin per position = 22% × $7,250 = $1,595. At 4x leverage, max notional = 4 × $1,595 = $6,380. The desired $13,775 notional would require $3,443.75 margin, breaching the 22% margin cap, so it is not compliant.
⊢ maxNotional=6380 exp=6380 err=0.0%
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortcompliant falsemaxNotional 6380confidence 0
Not compliant: the 22% margin cap binds first. Max margin per position = 0.22 × $7250 = $1595; at 4x leverage, max notional = $1595 × 4 = $6380, which is below the proposed $13,775.
⊢ maxNotional=6380 exp=6380 err=0.0%
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 1450confidence 0.98
The proposed $13775 notional short is not compliant with the stricter mandate: a single position's notional may not exceed 20% of $7250 equity. Maximum allowable notional is $1450.
⊢ maxNotional=1450 exp=6380 err=77.3%
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 6380confidence 0.99
Not compliant: at 4x leverage, a $13775 notional position requires $3443.75 margin, exceeding the 22% equity margin cap of $1595. The maximum notional under the stated house rules is $1595 × 4 = $6380.
⊢ maxNotional=6380 exp=6380 err=0.0%
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 6380confidence 0.95
Proposed $13,775 notional requires $3,443.75 margin at 4x leverage, exceeding the 22% equity margin cap of $1,595; maximum compliant notional is $6,380. Additionally, the imminent Fed minutes release prohibits opening new positions within 30 minutes.
⊢ maxNotional=6380 exp=6380 err=0.0%
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 6380confidence 1
The desired notional of 13775 exceeds the maximum allowed notional of 6380, calculated as 22% of 7250 equity multiplied by the 4x max leverage.
⊢ maxNotional=6380 exp=6380 err=0.0%
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action waitcompliant falsemaxNotional 6380confidence 0.9
Proposed notional exceeds 4x leverage on 22% max margin; also blocked by high-impact data release rule.
⊢ maxNotional=6380 exp=6380 err=0.0%
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action waitcompliant falsemaxNotional 6380confidence 0.9
Margin for 13775 notional at 4x exceeds 22% equity cap; max notional is 6380. Fed minutes also blocks new positions.
⊢ maxNotional=6380 exp=6380 err=0.0%
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 8700confidence 1
The proposed 13775 notional requires margin exceeding the 22% equity cap, making it non-compliant. Maximum allowable notional is equity ($7250) * 22% * 4x leverage = $6380 margin * 4 = $25520, but the 22% rule is binding here, limiting margin to $1595 and notional to $1595 * 4 = $6380; however, the question uses house rules of 4x leverage and 22% margin, so max notional = 7250 * 0.22 * 4 = 6380, but I must re-calc: 7250 * 0.22 = 1595 margin, times 4 = 6380 notional. Wait, I see a discrepancy in my earlier calculation; let me recalc: 7250 * 0.22 = 1595, 1595 * 4 = 6380. So maxNotional should be 6380, not 8700. I apologize for the error. Let me correct: maxNotional = 6380.0.
⊢ maxNotional=8700 exp=6380 err=36.4%
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action waitcompliant falsemaxNotional 1595confidence 0
House rules cap leverage at 3x (not 4x) and single position margin at 20% of equity, not 22%. The 13775 notional short is non-compliant. Max notional is equity * max_leverage * margin_pct = 7250 * 3 * 0.2 = 1595. Wait for volatility to subside post-Fed minutes.
⊢ maxNotional=1595 exp=6380 err=75.0%
glm-5.1
bare
✗ fail
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 1450confidence 1
My hard rule caps a single position's notional at 20% of equity ($7250 × 0.20 = $1450), which is far below the proposed $13775; the margin/leverage constraints are looser but the notional cap binds.
⊢ maxNotional=1450 exp=6380 err=77.3%
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 6380confidence 0.9
Max margin allowed is 22% of $7250 = $1595. At 4x leverage, max notional = $1595 × 4 = $6380. Proposed $13775 notional would require $3443.75 margin (47.5% of equity), far exceeding the 22% limit. Not compliant.
⊢ maxNotional=6380 exp=6380 err=0.0%