← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

SOL chops sideways as traders await a network upgrade announcement. Given: account $3850, short SOL at 73.77, stop 77.09. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many SOL do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in SOL) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 14.495481927710811, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.51entry 73.77invalidation 77.09riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance $3.32 per SOL gives ~14.51 SOL, risking 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=14.51 (exp 14.4955, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.51entry 73.77invalidation 77.09riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = $3.32; size = 48.13/3.32 ≈ 14.51 SOL, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=14.51 (exp 14.4955, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.495180722891567riskPct 1.25confidence 0.99
Maximum risk is 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125; stop distance = 77.09 - 73.77 = $3.32 per SOL; size = 48.125 / 3.32 ≈ 14.495 SOL, risking exactly 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=14.495180722891567 (exp 14.4955, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.49riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Max loss allowed is 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13. Risk per SOL = 77.09 - 73.77 = $3.32. Size = 48.13 / 3.32 ≈ 14.49 SOL, risking exactly 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=14.49 (exp 14.4955, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 10.44entry 73.77invalidation 77.09riskPct 0.9confidence 1
SOL is chopping sideways awaiting an announcement, providing no edge, so the correct action is to stand flat. If taken, size is capped at 10.44 SOL to respect the 20% max notional rule, resulting in a 0.9% risk.
⊢ size=10.44 (exp 14.4955, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 10.43entry 73.77invalidation 77.09riskPct 0.9maxNotional 770confidence 0.9
SOL is chopping sideways with no clear edge, so the correct action is to stand flat. If the trade were taken, the 20% max notional rule ($770) would cap the size at 10.43 SOL, resulting in a 0.9% risk, overriding the 1% risk limit.
⊢ size=10.43 (exp 14.4955, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.5entry 73.77invalidation 77.09riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per SOL = 77.09 - 73.77 = 3.32. Max dollar risk = 3850 * 0.0125 = $48.125. Size = 48.125 / 3.32 ≈ 14.50 SOL, which uses the full 1.25% risk budget.
⊢ size=14.5 (exp 14.4955, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.44entry 73.77invalidation 77.09leverage 0.2riskPct 0.9compliant truemaxNotional 770confidence 0.5
1.25% risk rule alone yields 14.50 SOL (risk $48.13 = 1.25%), but the mandate's 20% notional cap binds first: max notional = $770 → 10.44 SOL. Actual risk = 10.44 × $3.32 = $34.66 = 0.90% of equity.
⊢ size=10.44 (exp 14.4955, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.4378riskPct 0.9001confidence 0.98
Size is capped by the 20% max-notional rule: $770 / 73.77 = 10.4378 SOL. With a $3.32 stop distance, actual risk is about $34.65, or 0.9001% of the $3850 account.
⊢ size=10.4378 (exp 14.4955, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9001
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 11.5964entry 73.77invalidation 77.09riskPct 1compliant trueconfidence 0.2
SOL is described as chopping sideways with no clear edge, so I would not initiate a new trade. For sizing the given short, the mandate caps risk at 1% of $3850: $38.50 / $3.32 stop distance = 11.5964 SOL, risking 1.0%.
⊢ size=11.5964 (exp 14.4955, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.44entry 73.77invalidation 77.09riskPct 0.9confidence 0.5
Stop distance is 3.32. The 1% hard-rule risk ($38.50) implies 11.60 SOL, but that yields $855 notional, breaching the 20%-of-equity ($770) notional cap. Binding constraint is notional: 770/73.77 = 10.44 SOL, realizing 0.90% risk.
⊢ size=10.44 (exp 14.4955, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 10.437riskPct 0.9confidence 0
Sideways chop means no edge, so standing flat. For the calculation: size is capped by the 20% notional hard rule ($770) overriding the 1.25% risk request, resulting in 10.437 SOL and 0.9% actual risk.
⊢ size=10.437 (exp 14.4955, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.5riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk budget 1.25% of 3850 equals 48.125; distance 3.32 implies size 14.5 SOL to realize exactly that risk.
⊢ size=14.5 (exp 14.4955, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.5riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget 1.25% of 3850 gives 48.125 USD; 3.32 USD per SOL stop distance yields size of ~14.5 SOL.
⊢ size=14.5 (exp 14.4955, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.46entry 73.77invalidation 77.09riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Calculates position size to risk exactly 1.25% of $3850 ($48.125) on a $3.32 price move, resulting in ~14.46 SOL short.
⊢ size=14.46 (exp 14.4955, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 145.5riskPct 1.25confidence 0
This is a risk calculation for a given stop, not a new trade. The size of 145.5 SOL is derived from the house rule (1.25% risk) and the stop distance, with the risk capped at the house limit.
⊢ size=145.5 (exp 14.4955, err 903.8%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.49sizePct 0.277entry 73.77invalidation 77.09takeProfit 67.13leverage 1riskPct 1.25rr 2confidence 0.5
Size calculated by dividing the 1.25% max risk ($48.125) by the stop distance ($3.32), resulting in 14.49 SOL and an actual risk of 1.25%.
⊢ size=14.49 (exp 14.4955, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.5entry 73.77invalidation 77.09riskPct 1.25confidence 0.3
Size = (3850 × 0.0125) / (77.09 − 73.77) = 48.125 / 3.32 ≈ 14.50 SOL; actual risk = 1.25% of equity. Choppy, news-driven market offers no edge—would not take this trade.
⊢ size=14.5 (exp 14.4955, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25