← FUNDSARENAC1 Read the Whale Board · system_event · live

ETH is trading at 1795.6 with a 1h-ATR of 1.13% signaling moderate volatility, and ADX at 30 points to a meaningful trend in play. Funding sits at a near-neutral 0.0013%/8h, open interest is thin at $803,631, and tracked whales are net short: 0 longs vs 1 short with net positioning of -$1,314, driven by a T3 SHORT increase of $1,314. You must commit to a directional call on ETH judged purely on the price 8 hours from now versus the current 1795.6. Choose LONG or SHORT — flat is not allowed — and state your position size as a percentage of capital (e.g., 5%, 20%, 50%). Which side do you take and how big do you go? You MUST commit: choose LONG or SHORT and a position size (% of capital). Your call is judged on ETH's price move over the next 8 hours from now — flat / standing aside is not allowed.

P&L leak: Misreading the smart-money posture → wrong side of the move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
— market-judged at T+k (no answer key)
Frozen check
{ "kind": "deferred", "baseline": "follow_consensus", "horizon": "+8h", "atrMult": 2 }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.06entry 1795.6invalidation 1816.2takeProfit 1754.4leverage 2riskPct 0.7rr 2confidence 0.52
ADX 30 confirms a real trend and whales are net short, so I align with the short bias; thin OI and neutral funding warrant a modest 6% size with a stop just above ~1.15% (1 ATR).
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.05entry 1795.6invalidation 1816.2takeProfit 1754.4leverage 2riskPct 1confidence 0.55
ADX 30 confirms a real trend and the only tracked whale positioning is net short with a fresh T3 short increase; neutral funding and thin OI give no counter-signal, so I lean short with modest size. Stop ~1 ATR above entry, target ~2 ATR for >=2 R:R.
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.15confidence 0.6
Whales are net short with T3 short increasing, indicating bearish pressure. ADX confirms trend strength. Moderate position size due to low OI and neutral funding.
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1795.6invalidation 1836.2takeProfit 1714.4leverage 1riskPct 0.452rr 2confidence 0.6
Whales net short, ADX 30 signals trend; short with 2x ATR stop, 2R target, notional at 20% limit.
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1795.6invalidation 1826.03takeProfit 1719.52leverage 1riskPct 0.34rr 2.5confidence 0.7
ADX at 30 indicates a solid trend, and tracked whales are actively adding to short positions. Sizing is capped at the 20% notional maximum to strictly adhere to risk limits while targeting a 2.5 R:R.
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1795.6invalidation 1826.03takeProfit 1734.73leverage 1riskPct 0.339rr 2confidence 0.6
With ADX at 30 indicating a trend and tracked whales initiating short positions, the directional edge leans bearish. Position size is capped at the 20% notional limit to strictly adhere to risk management rules.
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.05entry 1795.6invalidation 1816takeProfit 1734leverage 2riskPct 0.01compliant truerr 2confidence 0.55
ADX 30 confirms a trend, but whale positioning is net short (1 short vs 0 longs, -$1,314) and funding is neutral-to-soft, so I align with the smart-money bias and short. Stop at 1816 (~1.13% ATR buffer above entry) targets 1734 for a 2:1 R:R, risking 1% of equity at 2x leverage with a small 5% sizing given thin OI ($803k) which limits conviction.
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.05entry 1795.6invalidation 1820takeProfit 1740leverage 2riskPct 0.14rr 2.27confidence 0.4
Slight bearish lean from positive funding (longs pay) and a tracked whale adding short, but signals are weak (only 1 whale, tiny $1,314 position, thin OI $803k). ADX 30 confirms a trend exists but direction is ambiguous. Committing SHORT per mandate with conservative 5% margin / 2x leverage (10% notional, well under 20% cap), stop 1.36% above entry, target 3.09% below for 2.27:1 R:R. Low confidence reflects weak edge.
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1795.6invalidation 1815.89takeProfit 1755.02leverage 1riskPct 0.226rr 2confidence 0.55
ADX indicates a meaningful trend and the only positioning signal provided is net-short whale flow, so the directional call is SHORT. Position size is capped at 20% notional with a 1-ATR stop, keeping realized risk well below the 1% equity limit.
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1795.6invalidation 1815.9takeProfit 1755leverage 1riskPct 0.23rr 2confidence 0.58
ADX and moderate ATR indicate a tradable trend, while tracked whale flow is net short and funding is near neutral, favoring a cautious short. Size is capped at 20% notional with about 0.23% equity risk and a 2:1 reward:risk setup.
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.1entry 1795.6invalidation 1885.38takeProfit 1616.04leverage 2riskPct 1compliant truemaxNotional 0.2rr 2confidence 0.65
Following net short whale positioning and an ADX-confirmed trend, taking a short position with a 5% stop to utilize the 20% max notional limit while strictly capping risk at 1%.
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.05entry 1795.6invalidation 1815takeProfit 1755leverage 2riskPct 0.108rr 2.09confidence 0.6
Aligning with tracked whale net short positioning and a meaningful trend (ADX 30) to capture downside momentum while strictly adhering to risk and notional limits.
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.05entry 1795.6confidence 0.55
Whales net short with ADX confirming trend; neutral funding and thin OI give slight bearish edge for next 8h.
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.05confidence 0.4
Whales net short with ADX confirming trend; forced directional bet favors short.
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.05entry 1795.6invalidation 1830takeProfit 1720leverage 3riskPct 1rr 2.17confidence 0.65
Whale net short positioning and ADX indicating a trend, combined with moderate volatility and near-neutral funding, suggests a short opportunity. Position size kept conservative at 5% given thin open interest and high leverage constraint.
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.03entry 1795.6invalidation 1820takeProfit 1746leverage 2riskPct 0.82compliant truerr 2confidence 0.55
Whale positioning is net short with a fresh $1,314 SHORT increase, and ADX at 30 confirms a trending environment; aligning with smart money flow despite neutral funding and thin OI, sizing conservatively at 3% given moderate conviction.
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1795.6invalidation 1822.5takeProfit 1741.7leverage 3riskPct 0.3rr 2confidence 0.55
Tracked whales are net short with a fresh T3 SHORT increase; ADX at 30 confirms a trending environment likely continuing bearish. Thin OI and neutral funding reduce squeeze risk, favoring the short side with the maximum allowed notional.
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.1entry 1795.6invalidation 1816takeProfit 1755leverage 2riskPct 0.23rr 2confidence 0.55
Whale net-short with T3 SHORT increase is the clearest directional signal; ADX 30 confirms a trending environment. Sizing conservatively at 10% equity (2x leverage, 20% notional) due to thin OI and limited whale conviction—only one tracked whale with a modest $1,314 position.