← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

SOL whipsaws after a major network upgrade rumor hits the wires. Given: account $3275, short SOL at 74.82, stop 78.26. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many SOL do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in SOL) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 11.900436046511587, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 11.9entry 74.82invalidation 78.26riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = $3.44, so size = 40.94/3.44 ≈ 11.9 SOL, risking ~1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=11.9 (exp 11.9004, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 11.9entry 74.82invalidation 78.26takeProfit 67.94riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = 3.44, so size = 40.94/3.44 ≈ 11.9 SOL, risking the full 1.25%.
⊢ size=11.9 (exp 11.9004, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 11riskPct 1.16confidence 0.5
Risk per SOL is 3.44 (78.26 - 74.82). Max risk allowed is 1.25% of 3275 = 40.94. Size = 40.94 / 3.44 ≈ 11.9, rounded down to 11 SOL. Actual risk = 11 * 3.44 / 3275 ≈ 1.16%.
⊢ size=11 (exp 11.9004, err 7.6%), riskPct=1.16
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 11.9riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risk per SOL = 78.26 - 74.82 = 3.44. Max risk 1.25% of $3275 = $40.9375. Size = 40.9375 / 3.44 ≈ 11.90 SOL. Risk % = 1.25%.
⊢ size=11.9 (exp 11.9004, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 8.7543entry 74.82invalidation 78.26riskPct 0.9195confidence 1
The 20% max notional limit ($655) restricts the position size to 8.7543 SOL, keeping the realized risk at 0.92%, which strictly complies with the 1% hard risk limit despite the 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=8.7543 (exp 11.9004, err 26.4%), riskPct=0.9195
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 8.7543entry 74.82invalidation 78.26riskPct 0.9195confidence 1
Size is capped at 8.7543 SOL to strictly adhere to the 20% maximum notional rule, keeping the realized risk at 0.92% which satisfies the 1% hard limit.
⊢ size=8.7543 (exp 11.9004, err 26.4%), riskPct=0.9195
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 11.9entry 74.82invalidation 78.26riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per SOL = 78.26 - 74.82 = 3.44. Max dollar risk = 1.25% × $3275 = $40.94. Size = 40.94 / 3.44 ≈ 11.90 SOL, putting exactly 1.25% of equity at risk.
⊢ size=11.9 (exp 11.9004, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 11.9entry 74.82invalidation 78.26riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per SOL = 78.26 − 74.82 = 3.44. Max dollar risk = 1.25% × $3275 = $40.94. Size = 40.94 / 3.44 ≈ 11.90 SOL, which puts exactly 1.25% of equity at risk.
⊢ size=11.9 (exp 11.9004, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 8.754343758353382entry 74.82invalidation 78.26riskPct 0.9195509222134826confidence 0.98
Size is capped by the 20% max notional rule, not the risk limit: $655 / 74.82 = 8.7543 SOL. At a $3.44 stop distance, actual risk is about $30.12, or 0.92% of equity.
⊢ size=8.754343758353382 (exp 11.9004, err 26.4%), riskPct=0.9195509222134826
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 8.754344riskPct 0.91954confidence 0.99
Position size is capped by the stricter mandate: 1% max risk and 20% max notional. At 8.754344 SOL, the $3.44 stop distance risks about 0.92% of equity.
⊢ size=8.754344 (exp 11.9004, err 26.4%), riskPct=0.91954
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 8.7543entry 74.82invalidation 78.26leverage 1riskPct 0.92confidence 0.5
Position size is capped by the 20% max notional hard rule ($655), which restricts size to ~8.75 SOL. This overrides both the 1% max risk hard rule and the prompt's 1.25% suggestion, resulting in an actual risk of ~0.92%.
⊢ size=8.7543 (exp 11.9004, err 26.4%), riskPct=0.92
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 11.9entry 74.82invalidation 78.26riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0.4
Calculated short size at 1.25% risk yields 11.90 SOL (risk $40.94 / $3.44 per SOL). Non-compliant: 1.25% risk exceeds the 1% hard limit, and notional ($890) is 27.2% of equity, breaching the 20% cap.
⊢ size=11.9 (exp 11.9004, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 11.9riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk 1.25% of 3275 equals 40.94; distance to stop 3.44 implies size of 11.9 SOL.
⊢ size=11.9 (exp 11.9004, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 11.9entry 74.82invalidation 78.26riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk budget 1.25% of 3275 yields 40.9375 USD; 3.44 USD per SOL gives exactly 11.9 SOL position size.
⊢ size=11.9 (exp 11.9004, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 11.82entry 74.82invalidation 78.26riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Sizing a short position to risk exactly 1.25% of the $3275 account ($40.94) over a $3.44 per-SOL stop distance yields approximately 11.82 SOL.
⊢ size=11.82 (exp 11.9004, err 0.7%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 0.9
Whipsaw after rumor implies high volatility and unclear direction; no clear edge. Not trading is correct.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 11.90625entry 74.82invalidation 78.26riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Calculated position size based on 1.25% max risk of $3275 account equity and a $3.44 stop distance, resulting in 11.90625 SOL and an actual risk of 1.25%.
⊢ size=11.90625 (exp 11.9004, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 11.9sizePct 0.272entry 74.82invalidation 78.26takeProfit 67.94leverage 1riskPct 1.25rr 2confidence 0.5
Max risk = 3275 × 0.0125 = $40.94; stop distance = 78.26 − 74.82 = $3.44; size = 40.94 / 3.44 ≈ 11.9 SOL; actual risk % = (11.9 × 3.44) / 3275 ≈ 1.25%.
⊢ size=11.9 (exp 11.9004, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25