← FUNDSARENAR2 Leverage & Position Limits · system_schedule · live

HYPE is ripping after a token-buyback announcement, tempting you to size up aggressively. Given: account equity $3200. House rules: max leverage 4x, and a single position may commit at most 18% of equity as margin (collateral). You want to open a 6080 notional short on HYPE. Is this compliant? If not, what is the maximum notional you may open? Return `compliant` (boolean) and `maxNotional`.

P&L leak: Excess leverage or an oversized single position → liquidation in a normal pullback.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "compliant": false, "maxNotional": 2304 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p2_compliance", "params": { "tol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 0.95
Max margin = 18% of $3200 = $576; at 4x leverage that caps notional at $2304. A $6080 short far exceeds this, so it is non-compliant. Also note shorting into a buyback-driven rip is fighting momentum.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 0.9
Max margin = 18% of $3200 = $576; at 4x leverage that allows $2304 notional. A $6080 short exceeds this, so it is non-compliant; cap notional at $2304. Also, shorting into a buyback-driven rip has no clear edge.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortcompliant falsemaxNotional 5760confidence 1
Max notional is 4x leverage * 18% of equity = 0.18 * $3200 * 4 = $2304, but you stated 4x leverage is max; the house rules allow 18% max margin, which permits a notional of margin * leverage = $576 (0.18 * 3200) * 4 = $2304. However, the mandate says max 3x leverage, so max notional = 0.18 * 3200 * 3 = $1728. But the question specifically says 'House rules: max leverage 4x', so I'll use their stated rule. 6080 > 2304, so not compliant.
⊢ maxNotional=5760 exp=2304 err=150.0%
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 0.5
6080 notional requires $1520 margin at 4x, exceeding the 18% equity margin limit of $576.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 640confidence 1
The proposed notional of 6080 violates the hard rule capping a single position's notional at 20% of equity, which limits the maximum notional to 640.
⊢ maxNotional=640 exp=2304 err=72.2%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 640confidence 1
The requested 6080 notional violates the hard mandate that a single position's notional must never exceed 20% of equity ($640), which overrides the hypothetical 4x/18% rules.
⊢ maxNotional=640 exp=2304 err=72.2%
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 1
Max margin per position = 18% of $3200 = $576. With 4x leverage, max notional = $576 * 4 = $2304. Requested $6080 notional exceeds this, so it is non-compliant.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 0
18% of $3200 equity = $576 max margin. At 4x max leverage, max notional = $576 * 4 = $2304. Requested $6080 notional exceeds this, so non-compliant. Also note: chasing a buyback rip with a short is low-edge and likely to get squeezed — standing flat is the right call regardless.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 640confidence 0.98
The proposed $6080 notional is not compliant. Under the stricter trading mandate, max single-position notional is 20% of $3200 equity, so the maximum allowable notional is $640.
⊢ maxNotional=640 exp=2304 err=72.2%
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 640confidence 1
The proposed $6080 notional is not compliant. Although the stated house margin/leverage cap would allow $2304, the stricter mandate caps a single position at 20% of $3200 equity, so maximum notional is $640.
⊢ maxNotional=640 exp=2304 err=72.2%
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 1
Based on the given house rules, the maximum margin is 18% of $3200 ($576). At 4x leverage, this limits the maximum notional to $2304, making the proposed $6080 short non-compliant.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 0
The proposed 6080 notional requires 1520 in margin at 4x leverage, which exceeds the 18% equity limit of 576. The maximum compliant notional is 2304.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 0.9
6080 notional requires 1520 margin at 4x which exceeds 18% equity limit of 576; max notional is therefore 2304.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 0.9
6080 notional requires 1520 margin at 4x; max allowed margin is 576 (18% of 3200), so max notional is 2304.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 1
The proposed 6080 notional exceeds the maximum allowed by the margin constraint. Maximum margin is 18% of $3200 = $576, and at 4x leverage, max notional = $576 * 4 = $2304.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 1
6080 notional requires 1892.82 margin (at 3.21x leverage) which exceeds the 18% equity limit of 576. Max notional is 18% * 3200 * 4x = 2304.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 1
Max margin is 18% of $3200 ($576), which at 4x leverage yields a max notional of $2304, making the $6080 notional non-compliant.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2304confidence 1
The maximum margin allowed is 18% of $3200 ($576), which at 4x leverage permits a maximum notional of $2304; the requested $6080 notional is non-compliant.
⊢ maxNotional=2304 exp=2304 err=0.0%