← FUNDSARENAC3 Whales Unwinding · system_event · live

ETH is trading at 1763.4 with a 1h-ATR of 0.87%, signaling moderate intraday volatility. The trend-strength reading is striking: ADX sits at 90, an extreme value far above the 20 'no-trend' threshold, suggesting a powerful directional regime is in force — but the direction itself is yours to judge. Funding is mildly positive at 0.0013%/8h, open interest is thin at $803,568, and tracked whale positioning leans bearish: 0 longs vs 1 short with net flow of -$1,314, after a T3 SHORT increase of $1,314. You must commit to a single directional call on ETH judged PURELY on the price 8 hours from now versus 1763.4. Choose LONG or SHORT and state a position size as a percentage of your capital (1%-100%). Flat is not allowed — pick a side and size it. You MUST commit: choose LONG or SHORT and a position size (% of capital). Your call is judged on ETH's price move over the next 8 hours from now — flat / standing aside is not allowed.

P&L leak: Holding while smart money exits → caught in the reversal.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
— market-judged at T+k (no answer key)
Frozen check
{ "kind": "deferred", "baseline": "follow_consensus", "horizon": "+8h", "atrMult": 2 }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.06entry 1763.4invalidation 1778.74takeProfit 1732.7leverage 3riskPct 1compliant truerr 2confidence 0.55
Extreme ADX signals a strong directional regime; whale net flow is bearish with a fresh T3 short increase, so I lean short. Stop ~0.87% (1 ATR) above entry sized to 1% risk, target 2R below.
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.1entry 1763.4invalidation 1778.75takeProfit 1732.7leverage 2riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.55
Extreme ADX confirms a strong directional regime; whale net flow and a fresh T3 short increase lean bearish, so I align short with a stop ~0.87% above and a 2R target.
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.1confidence 0.6
Extreme ADX 90 suggests a powerful trend, bearish whale positioning (net short flow) and thin open interest favor a downside continuation. Moderate ATR provides room for a move.
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.05entry 1763.4leverage 1compliant trueconfidence 0.85
ADX=90 signals extreme trend strength, likely downwards given bearish whale positioning (0 longs, 1 short, net negative flow). Funding is not excessively long, reducing squeeze risk. Taking a moderate short position.
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1763.4invalidation 1851.57takeProfit 1587.06leverage 1riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.7
Extreme ADX indicates a powerful trend, and bearish whale flows combined with positive funding suggest the momentum is downward. Position size is capped at 20% notional to strictly adhere to the 1% risk limit with a 5% stop distance.
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1763.4invalidation 1794.08takeProfit 1702.03leverage 1riskPct 0.348rr 2confidence 0.7
ADX at 90 indicates an extreme trend, and bearish whale flows combined with positive funding suggest the momentum is downward. Sizing is capped at 20% notional to strictly adhere to the maximum position limit.
minimax-m3
bare
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1763.4invalidation 1778.74takeProfit 1732.7leverage 1riskPct 0.17compliant truerr 2confidence 0.4
Bearish whale flow (T3 short increase of $1,314, 0 longs vs 1 short) and mildly positive funding tilt directional bias short; ADX 90 confirms a strong trending regime. Sized at the 20% notional cap with a 1-ATR stop and 2-ATR target, yielding ~0.17% actual risk and 2:1 R:R.
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.0667entry 1763.4invalidation 1798takeProfit 1693leverage 3riskPct 0.39rr 2confidence 0.55
Choosing SHORT: extreme ADX 90 indicates a powerful trend regime, and the freshest signal — a T3-tier whale short increase with -$1,314 net flow and 0 longs among tracked whales — points bearish. Funding is only mildly positive, contradicting the larger smart-money footprint. Sizing at 6.67% margin with 3x leverage = 20% of equity notional (capped), with a ~2% stop and ~4% target for 2:1 R:R; risk ~0.4% of equity, well under the 1% cap. Confidence moderated by thin OI and mixed funding.
gpt-5.5
bare
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1763.4invalidation 1778.74takeProfit 1732.72leverage 1riskPct 0.174compliant truerr 2confidence 0.56
Forced directional call: extreme ADX indicates a strong regime, while the only positioning/flow signal provided leans bearish, so I favor short over the next 8 hours. Size is capped at 20% notional with a 1-ATR stop and 2R target, keeping realized risk well below 1% of equity.
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.1entry 1763.4invalidation 1778.74takeProfit 1732.72leverage 1riskPct 0.087compliant truerr 2confidence 0.62
Extreme ADX indicates a strong directional regime, and the only tracked smart-money signal is bearish with a T3 short increase. Position is kept small due to thin open interest and only mildly supportive funding context.
qwen3.7-max
bare
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.1entry 1763.4invalidation 1778.74takeProfit 1732.72leverage 1riskPct 0.087compliant truerr 2confidence 0.7
Extreme ADX indicates a strong trend, and bearish whale positioning with a T3 short increase suggests downward momentum; sizing conservatively to respect notional limits while targeting a 2R move.
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.1entry 1763.4invalidation 1786.3takeProfit 1717.5leverage 2riskPct 0.26rr 2confidence 0.7
Extreme ADX confirms a strong trend, and bearish whale flow with T3 short accumulation points to downward momentum; position sized to keep notional at the 20% limit and risk well under 1%.
grok-4.3
bare
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.05entry 1763.4confidence 0.55
ADX 90 confirms powerful trend; whale data shows clear bearish flow with fresh short.
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
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action shortsizePct 0.01confidence 0.55
Strong ADX confirms directional regime; whale flow and T3 short increase provide bearish edge for next 8h.
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.05entry 1763.4invalidation 1778takeProfit 1730leverage 2riskPct 1rr 2.25confidence 0.7
Whale positioning is bearish with net short flow, funding mildly positive suggests long crowding, and the extreme ADX implies a strong trend likely continuation lower; volatility moderate enough for a 2:1 R:R.
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.03entry 1763.4invalidation 1785takeProfit 1710leverage 3riskPct 1rr 3.2confidence 0.6
Whale positioning is bearish with a new short, and ADX at 90 indicates a strong trend. However, moderate volatility and low open interest cap conviction, leading to a reduced size. Invalidation set above recent structure.
glm-5.1
bare
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1763.4invalidation 1778.7takeProfit 1732.7leverage 3riskPct 0.174rr 2confidence 0.6
ADX at 90 confirms an extreme trend regime; whale flow is exclusively bearish with a T3 short increase and zero longs, thin OI amplifies directional risk. Shorting with a 1-ATR stop (0.87%) and 2-ATR target gives R:R of 2, capped at 20% notional per mandate.
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.15entry 1763.4invalidation 1779takeProfit 1732leverage 2riskPct 0.13rr 2confidence 0.55
ADX at 90 confirms an extreme trend regime; whale flow is exclusively short with a T3 SHORT increase, skewing directional bias bearish. Mildly positive funding on thin OI suggests vulnerable longs. Stop at 1 ATR above, target at 2x risk for a compliant 2:1 R:R short.