← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

HYPE is grinding sideways near the all-time high as funding flips slightly negative. Given: account $3850, short HYPE at 75.58, stop 78.98. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many HYPE do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in HYPE) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 14.15441176470586, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.15entry 75.58invalidation 78.98riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = $3.40, so size = 48.13/3.40 ≈ 14.15 HYPE, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=14.15 (exp 14.1544, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.15entry 75.58invalidation 78.98riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = 3.40, so size = 48.13/3.40 ≈ 14.15 HYPE, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=14.15 (exp 14.1544, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.2riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Stop distance is 3.40 (78.98 - 75.58). Max risk 1.25% of $3850 is $48.125. Size = $48.125 / 3.40 ≈ 14.15 HYPE, rounded to 14.2. Risk is exactly 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=14.2 (exp 14.1544, err 0.3%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.15riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risk per unit = 78.98 - 75.58 = 3.40. Max risk 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125. Size = 48.125/3.40 ≈ 14.15 HYPE. Actual risk = 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=14.15 (exp 14.1544, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.1878entry 75.58invalidation 78.98riskPct 0.8997confidence 1
Although the house rule allows 1.25% risk, the hard rule caps risk at 1%. However, the 20% maximum notional limit ($770) is the actual bottleneck, restricting the size to 10.1878 HYPE and realizing a risk of ~0.90%.
⊢ size=10.1878 (exp 14.1544, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.8997
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.18sizePct 0.2entry 75.58invalidation 78.98riskPct 0.9maxNotional 770confidence 0.9
While the house rule allows 1.25% risk, hard rules cap a single position's notional at 20% of equity ($770). This restricts the maximum size to 10.18 HYPE, resulting in an actual risk of 0.90%.
⊢ size=10.18 (exp 14.1544, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.9
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.15entry 75.58invalidation 78.98riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0.4
Stop distance = 78.98 − 75.58 = 3.40. Max risk at 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125, so size = 48.125 / 3.40 ≈ 14.15 HYPE. Note: this 1.25% risk budget exceeds the 1% mandate cap; the mandate-compliant size would be 11.32 HYPE at 1.0% risk ($38.50). I am returning the user's stated house-rule math and flagging non-compliance.
⊢ size=14.15 (exp 14.1544, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.15entry 75.58invalidation 78.98riskPct 1.25compliant trueconfidence 0.5
Risk-based sizing: risk = 1.25% × $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = 78.98 − 75.58 = $3.40; size = 48.13 / 3.40 ≈ 14.15 HYPE, putting 1.25% of equity at risk. Note: at 1x notional this implies ~27.8% of equity in notional, which would breach the 20% notional cap, so size may need to be reduced to ~10.19 HYPE if the 20% notional rule is enforced.
⊢ size=14.15 (exp 14.1544, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.18788riskPct 0.8997confidence 0.99
Hard mandate caps single-position notional at 20% of equity, so max notional is $770 and size is 770 / 75.58 = 10.18788 HYPE. With a $3.40 stop distance, actual risk is about $34.64, or 0.8997% of equity.
⊢ size=10.18788 (exp 14.1544, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.8997
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0entry 75.58invalidation 78.98riskPct 0confidence 0.25
HYPE is sideways near ATH with only slightly negative funding, so there is no clear edge and no trade is taken. If sizing purely to the mandate max of 1% risk, the cap would be 11.3235 HYPE, but actual trade risk is 0% because we stand flat.
⊢ size=0 (exp 14.1544, err 100.0%), riskPct=0
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.1879entry 75.58invalidation 78.98riskPct 0.9confidence 0.5
Position size is capped by the 20% max notional hard rule ($770), limiting the trade to 10.1879 HYPE. This results in an actual risk of 0.9%, strictly adhering to the 1% max risk hard rule rather than the suggested 1.25%.
⊢ size=10.1879 (exp 14.1544, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.18entry 75.58invalidation 78.98riskPct 0.9confidence 0.5
System hard rules cap risk at 1% and notional at 20% of equity ($770). The 20% notional limit restricts size to 10.18 HYPE, resulting in an actual risk of 0.9%, overriding the suggested 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=10.18 (exp 14.1544, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.9
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.15riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk budget 1.25% of 3850 gives 48.125 USD; 3.4 stop distance yields size 14.15 HYPE.
⊢ size=14.15 (exp 14.1544, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.154411764705882riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk 1.25% of 3850 equals 48.125; divide by 3.4 stop distance yields size.
⊢ size=14.154411764705882 (exp 14.1544, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortentry 75.58invalidation 78.98confidence 0.65
Calculating position size based on given stop and risk limits.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 0.2
Grinding sideways near ATH with only slightly negative funding suggests no clear trend or volatility edge. Low conviction environment, stand flat to avoid churn.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.15sizePct 0.277entry 75.58invalidation 78.98takeProfit 68.78leverage 1riskPct 1.25compliant truemaxNotional 770rr 2confidence 0.6
Sizing short to risk exactly 1.25% of equity ($48.125) over the 3.40 stop distance yields 14.15 HYPE, risking 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=14.15 (exp 14.1544, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.19riskPct 0.9confidence 0.5
Size capped at 20% notional (770/75.58=10.19), which limits actual risk to 0.9% of equity, below the 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=10.19 (exp 14.1544, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9