← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

ETH consolidates near 1795 as traders eye a potential breakout after weeks of range-bound chop. Given: account $3275, short ETH at 1795.6, stop 1862.94. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many ETH do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in ETH) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.6079224829224816, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6082entry 1795.6invalidation 1862.94riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Stop distance is 67.34; max risk 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94, so size = 40.94/67.34 ≈ 0.608 ETH, risking 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.6082 (exp 0.6079, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6082entry 1795.6invalidation 1862.94riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = 67.34, so size = 40.94/67.34 ≈ 0.608 ETH, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.6082 (exp 0.6079, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.61entry 1795.6invalidation 1862.94riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Short entry at 1795.6 with invalidation at 1862.94 gives a per-unit risk of $67.34. With $3275 equity and 1.25% risk ($40.94), size = 40.94 / 67.34 ≈ 0.608 ETH, which uses exactly 1.25% of equity if stopped out.
⊢ size=0.61 (exp 0.6079, err 0.3%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6079riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per ETH is 67.34, max risk 1.25% of $3275 is $40.9375, so size = 40.9375/67.34 ≈ 0.6079 ETH, risking exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.6079 (exp 0.6079, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.36478entry 1795.6invalidation 1862.94riskPct 0.75confidence 1
Although the house rule suggests 1.25% risk, the hard rules cap risk at 1% and max notional at 20% of equity ($655). The 20% notional limit is the binding constraint here, restricting the position to 0.36478 ETH and resulting in an actual risk of 0.75%.
⊢ size=0.36478 (exp 0.6079, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.36478sizePct 0.2entry 1795.6invalidation 1862.94takeProfit 1660.92leverage 1riskPct 0.75rr 2confidence 0.9
Although the house rule allows 1.25% risk, the hard rule caps risk at 1% and notional at 20%. The 20% notional limit ($655) is the binding constraint here, resulting in a size of 0.36478 ETH and an actual risk of 0.75%.
⊢ size=0.36478 (exp 0.6079, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.608entry 1795.6invalidation 1862.94riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per ETH = |1795.6 - 1862.94| = $67.34. Max risk = 1.25% × $3275 = $40.94. Size = 40.94 / 67.34 ≈ 0.608 ETH, putting exactly 1.25% of equity at risk. Caveat: notional ≈ $1092 is ~33% of equity, which breaches the 20% notional cap from the mandate — the binding constraint here is notional, so a compliant size would be ~0.365 ETH (≈0.75% risk).
⊢ size=0.608 (exp 0.6079, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.609entry 1795.6invalidation 1862.94riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per ETH = 1862.94 - 1795.6 = 67.34. Max risk = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94. Size = 40.94 / 67.34 ≈ 0.608 ETH, risking exactly 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=0.609 (exp 0.6079, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.36478riskPct 0.75confidence 0.98
Size is capped by the 20% max-notional mandate: $655 / 1795.6 = 0.36478 ETH. With a $67.34 stop distance, this risks about $24.56, or 0.75% of the $3275 account.
⊢ size=0.36478 (exp 0.6079, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.364781riskPct 0.750056confidence 0.95
Size is capped by the stricter mandate: max notional is 20% of equity, so $655 / 1795.6 = 0.364781 ETH. With a $67.34 stop distance, this risks about 0.750056% of the account.
⊢ size=0.364781 (exp 0.6079, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.750056
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.3648entry 1795.6invalidation 1862.94riskPct 0.75confidence 0
Hard rules cap risk at 1% ($32.75), which would allow 0.4863 ETH, but the 20% notional cap ($655) is the binding constraint, limiting size to 0.3648 ETH and actual risk to 0.75%. No take-profit provided to verify R:R >= 2, so standing flat.
⊢ size=0.3648 (exp 0.6079, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.3648entry 1795.6invalidation 1862.94riskPct 0.75confidence 0.3
Hard rules cap risk at 1% ($32.75), but the 20% notional limit ($655) binds first, constraining size to 0.3648 ETH and reducing actual risk to 0.75% of equity; range-bound chop also argues for reduced conviction.
⊢ size=0.3648 (exp 0.6079, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.608riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Position sized to max 1.25% account risk on the short; stop distance dictates 0.608 ETH.
⊢ size=0.608 (exp 0.6079, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 0.1
Range-bound chop, no edge; stand flat per rules.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.612riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Size calculated to risk exactly 1.25% of the $3275 account on the short position with a stop at 1862.94.
⊢ size=0.612 (exp 0.6079, err 0.7%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.606riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Calculated size to risk exactly 1.25% of account on the given stop distance. No new position taken due to consolidation.
⊢ size=0.606 (exp 0.6079, err 0.3%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.608riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Position sized to the 1.25% max risk rule: risk $ = 3275 * 0.0125 = 40.9375; stop distance = 67.34; size = 40.9375 / 67.34 ≈ 0.608 ETH.
⊢ size=0.608 (exp 0.6079, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.608entry 1795.6invalidation 1862.94riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Sizing short ETH position to risk exactly 1.25% of account equity based on the given stop distance.
⊢ size=0.608 (exp 0.6079, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25