← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

ETH chops near 1764 as traders eye a fresh ETF flow update before the close. Given: account $3275, short ETH at 1764.3, stop 1896.62. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many ETH do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in ETH) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.30938255743651766, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3095entry 1764.3invalidation 1896.62riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = 132.32, so size = 40.94/132.32 ≈ 0.3095 ETH, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.3095 (exp 0.3094, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3094entry 1764.3invalidation 1896.62riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance is 132.32, so size = 40.94/132.32 ≈ 0.3094 ETH, risking exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.3094 (exp 0.3094, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3093entry 1764.3invalidation 1896.62riskPct 1.25confidence 1
With a stop loss 132.32 above the short entry, risking at most 1.25% of the $3275 account ($40.94) requires a maximum position of 0.3093 ETH. This risks exactly 1.25% of equity if the stop is hit.
⊢ size=0.3093 (exp 0.3094, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3094riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risk per ETH is 132.32. Max risk 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94, so size = 40.94 / 132.32 ≈ 0.3094 ETH, risking exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.3094 (exp 0.3094, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.2475entry 1764.3invalidation 1896.62riskPct 1confidence 1
The hard rules strictly cap risk at 1% of equity, overriding the 1.25% house rule. Risking $32.75 on a $132.32 stop distance yields a position size of 0.2475 ETH.
⊢ size=0.2475 (exp 0.3094, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.2475entry 1764.3invalidation 1896.62riskPct 1confidence 1
Hard rules cap risk at 1% of equity, overriding the 1.25% house rule. With a stop distance of $132.32, sizing 0.2475 ETH risks exactly 1% ($32.75) while keeping notional under 20%.
⊢ size=0.2475 (exp 0.3094, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3094entry 1764.3invalidation 1896.62riskPct 1.25compliant trueconfidence 0.5
Risk per ETH on the short = 1896.62 - 1764.3 = 132.32 USD. Max risk = 1.25% of 3275 = 40.94 USD. Size = 40.94 / 132.32 ≈ 0.3094 ETH, which uses the full 1.25% risk budget.
⊢ size=0.3094 (exp 0.3094, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3094entry 1764.3invalidation 1896.62riskPct 1.25confidence 0.4
Sizing the short to the 1.25% house risk rule: risk budget = 0.0125 × $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = 1896.62 − 1764.3 = 132.32; size = 40.94 / 132.32 ≈ 0.3094 ETH. RiskPct equals 1.25% by construction. Signal is just chop into a data event, so low-conviction sizing.
⊢ size=0.3094 (exp 0.3094, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.2475riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Stop distance is 132.32 USDT; applying the stricter 1% mandate risk cap gives $32.75 risk, so size is $32.75 / 132.32 = 0.2475 ETH. Actual account risk is 1.0%, not the higher 1.25% house limit.
⊢ size=0.2475 (exp 0.3094, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.2475riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Stop distance is 132.32; applying the stricter 1% mandate caps dollar risk at $32.75, giving size 0.2475 ETH. Actual account risk is 1.0%, not the looser 1.25% house limit.
⊢ size=0.2475 (exp 0.3094, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.2475entry 1764.3invalidation 1896.62riskPct 1confidence 0.5
Hard rules strictly cap risk at 1% of equity ($32.75), overriding the suggested 1.25%. Dividing this max risk by the 132.32 stop distance yields a short size of 0.2475 ETH.
⊢ size=0.2475 (exp 0.3094, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.2475sizePct 0.1333entry 1764.3invalidation 1896.62takeProfit 1499.66leverage 3riskPct 1compliant truerr 2confidence 0.6
Hard rules strictly cap risk at 1% of equity, overriding the 1.25% house rule; sized to risk $32.75 with a 2R target.
⊢ size=0.2475 (exp 0.3094, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.309riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk 1.25% ($40.94) on 132.32 $/ETH stop distance yields 0.309 ETH short size.
⊢ size=0.309 (exp 0.3094, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.309riskPct 1.25confidence 0.3
Choppy price action near 1764 signals no edge; stand flat per no-edge gate. Size calc uses given 1.25% house risk on $3275 with 132.32 stop distance.
⊢ size=0.309 (exp 0.3094, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.31016entry 1764.3invalidation 1896.62riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Calculated position size based on account equity, entry price, and stop loss distance to achieve exactly 1.25% risk.
⊢ size=0.31016 (exp 0.3094, err 0.3%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0riskPct 0confidence 0
The question asks for a short position's size calculation. The stop is 132.32 points away, risking 1.25% of $3275 = $40.9375. Size = 40.9375 / 132.32 ≈ 0.3094 ETH. This is a calculation; I would not take this trade as ETH is choppy near 1764 with unclear trend.
⊢ size=0 (exp 0.3094, err 100.0%), riskPct=0
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3093entry 1764.3invalidation 1896.62riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Position sized to the 1.25% house rule max risk yields 0.3093 ETH; actual account risk is 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.3093 (exp 0.3094, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.2475sizePct 0.1334entry 1764.3invalidation 1896.62takeProfit 1499.66leverage 1riskPct 1compliant truemaxNotional 436.59rr 2confidence 0.2
Mandate caps risk at 1% of equity ($32.75), overriding the 1.25% house rule; size = 32.75 / 132.32 = 0.2475 ETH, risking exactly 1.0% of account. Standing flat because ETH is chopping with no directional edge ahead of an ETF flow catalyst.
⊢ size=0.2475 (exp 0.3094, err 20.0%), riskPct=1