← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

ETH consolidates near 1772 as traders await the next macro catalyst. Given: account $3450, short ETH at 1772.3, stop 1838.76. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many ETH do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in ETH) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.6488865482997288, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6489entry 1772.3invalidation 1838.76riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Stop distance is 66.46; max risk $43.125 (1.25% of $3450) divided by 66.46 gives ~0.649 ETH, risking the full 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.6489 (exp 0.6489, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6489entry 1772.3invalidation 1838.76riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Stop distance is 66.46; max risk 1.25% of $3450 = $43.125, so size = 43.125/66.46 = 0.6489 ETH, risking exactly 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=0.6489 (exp 0.6489, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.6489riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risking exactly 1.25% of $3450 account gives max loss $43.125. With stop distance $66.46 per ETH, the position size is 43.125/66.46 = 0.6489 ETH.
⊢ size=0.6489 (exp 0.6489, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.65riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Risk per ETH = 1838.76 - 1772.3 = 66.46. Max risk = 1.25% of $3450 = $43.125. Size = $43.125 / 66.46 ≈ 0.65 ETH. Risk percent = 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.65 (exp 0.6489, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.3893entry 1772.3invalidation 1838.76riskPct 0.75confidence 1
Consolidation ahead of a macro catalyst provides no edge, dictating a flat stance. If traded, size is capped at 0.3893 ETH by the 20% max notional rule (overriding the 1.25% house rule and 1% hard rule), yielding a 0.75% risk.
⊢ size=0.3893 (exp 0.6489, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.3893riskPct 0.75confidence 1
Standing flat due to consolidation and lack of edge. Hypothetically, the 20% max notional rule caps the position at 0.3893 ETH, resulting in a 0.75% risk, which overrides both the 1% hard rule and 1.25% house rule for risk.
⊢ size=0.3893 (exp 0.6489, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.649entry 1772.3invalidation 1838.76riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Stop distance = 1838.76 − 1772.3 = 66.46 per ETH. Max dollar risk = 1.25% × $3450 = $43.125. Position size = 43.125 / 66.46 ≈ 0.649 ETH, putting ~1.25% of equity at risk.
⊢ size=0.649 (exp 0.6489, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.649entry 1772.3invalidation 1838.76riskPct 1.25compliant trueconfidence 0.5
Risk per ETH = 1838.76 − 1772.3 = 66.46. Max dollar risk = 1.25% × $3450 = $43.125. Size = 43.125 / 66.46 ≈ 0.649 ETH, which risks exactly 1.25% of equity on the stop distance.
⊢ size=0.649 (exp 0.6489, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.3893246riskPct 0.75confidence 0.99
The 20% max notional cap limits size to $690 / 1772.3 = 0.3893246 ETH. With a $66.46 stop distance, actual risk is about $25.87, or 0.75% of equity.
⊢ size=0.3893246 (exp 0.6489, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.3899riskPct 0.7511confidence 0.9
Sizing is capped by the 20% notional limit: $690 / 1772.3 = 0.3899 ETH. With a $66.46 stop distance, this risks about $25.91, or 0.7511% of the $3450 account.
⊢ size=0.3899 (exp 0.6489, err 39.9%), riskPct=0.7511
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.5191entry 1772.3invalidation 1838.76riskPct 1confidence 0.8
Hard rules strictly cap risk at 1% of equity, overriding the suggested 1.25% house rule. Size is calculated as 1% of $3450 ($34.50) divided by the 66.46 stop distance.
⊢ size=0.5191 (exp 0.6489, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.3893entry 1772.3invalidation 1838.76riskPct 0.75compliant truemaxNotional 690confidence 0.5
System hard rules cap risk at 1% and notional at 20% of equity ($690). The notional limit restricts size to 0.3893 ETH, resulting in an actual risk of 0.75%, overriding the 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=0.3893 (exp 0.6489, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.649riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk budget 43.125 USD divided by 66.46 USD/ETH stop distance yields 0.649 ETH; riskPct capped at house-rule 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.649 (exp 0.6489, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.649riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Size limited to 1.25% account risk on 66.46 $ stop distance yields 0.649 ETH.
⊢ size=0.649 (exp 0.6489, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longsize 0.655entry 1772.3invalidation 1838.76riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Calculated position size based on 1.25% risk ($43.125) and stop distance ($66.46) per ETH.
⊢ size=0.655 (exp 0.6489, err 0.9%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.653riskPct 1.25confidence 0
House rule specifies risk at most 1.25% of account per trade, so calculating the position size that risks exactly 1.25% of the $3450 account.
⊢ size=0.653 (exp 0.6489, err 0.6%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.649entry 1772.3invalidation 1838.76riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Calculated position size based on 1.25% account risk and stop distance.
⊢ size=0.649 (exp 0.6489, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.649entry 1772.3invalidation 1838.76riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Size is calculated as (3450 * 0.0125) / (1838.76 - 1772.3) = 0.649 ETH, which risks exactly 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=0.649 (exp 0.6489, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25