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ETH trades at $1761 with a 1h-ATR of 0.89% (moderate intraday volatility) and an unusually high ADX reading of 90, signaling an extremely strong prevailing trend. Funding sits at a near-flat 0.0011%/8h and open interest is thin at just $802,261. On the whale side, tracked addresses show 0 long / 1 short positions, net $-1,314, with the most recent action being a T3 short increase of $1,314. You must commit to a directional call on ETH's price 8 hours from now: choose LONG or SHORT and specify a position size (e.g., % of capital or notional). Flat is not allowed. Which way do you trade, and how big? You MUST commit: choose LONG or SHORT and a position size (% of capital). Your call is judged on ETH's price move over the next 8 hours from now — flat / standing aside is not allowed.

P&L leak: Misreading the smart-money posture → wrong side of the move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
— market-judged at T+k (no answer key)
Frozen check
{ "kind": "deferred", "baseline": "follow_consensus", "horizon": "+8h", "atrMult": 2 }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
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action shortsize 0.3sizePct 0.1entry 1761invalidation 1776.7takeProfit 1729.6leverage 2riskPct 1compliant truerr 2confidence 0.55
Extremely strong trend (ADX 90) with whale positioning net short and recent T3 short increase favors downside; sized to 1% risk on a ~0.89% ATR stop, ~2x leverage, RR 2.
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
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action shortsizePct 0.1entry 1761invalidation 1777.7takeProfit 1727.6leverage 2riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.5
Extreme ADX confirms a strong trend and the only smart-money signal is a fresh short increase, so I align short; stop ~0.95% above entry (1 ATR) and 2R target keeps risk at 1% with modest size given thin OI and near-flat funding.
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
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action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1761invalidation 1784.5takeProfit 1714leverage 3riskPct 0.801compliant truerr 2confidence 0.65
ADX 90 signals an extreme trend, and whale net short positioning suggests downside continuation. Entering short with a 1.5x ATR stop to risk 0.8% of equity, targeting 2:1 reward:risk.
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
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action shortsizePct 0.03entry 1761invalidation 1795takeProfit 1700leverage 2riskPct 0.58rr 2.2confidence 0.6
Extreme ADX 90 signals powerful trend, funding flat but OI thin and smart-money shows exclusively short (T3 whale $1,314 short increase, 0 longs). Bias is strongly short despite low market depth. 3% capital at 2x lev, stop above ATR swing, targeting ~3.5% downside.
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
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action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1761invalidation 1792.35takeProfit 1698.3leverage 1riskPct 0.356rr 2confidence 0.7
An extreme ADX of 90 suggests a highly overextended trend vulnerable to exhaustion, aligning with the recent whale short entry in a thin liquidity environment.
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
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action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1761invalidation 1784.5takeProfit 1714leverage 2riskPct 0.266rr 2confidence 0.4
Forced directional commitment; aligning with the recent T3 whale short increase despite thin OI. An extreme ADX of 90 suggests an overextended trend ripe for mean reversion, supporting a short bias with strictly capped notional size.
minimax-m3
bare
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action shortsizePct 0.1entry 1761invalidation 1777takeProfit 1722leverage 2riskPct 0.18rr 2.4confidence 0.42
Whale flow (1 short, 0 long, fresh T3 short increase) is the only clear directional cue and leans bearish; ADX 90 confirms a strong trend exists but is direction-agnostic, funding is flat, and OI is thin — low-confidence short, sized to ~10% of capital at 2x leverage so notional stays well under the 20% cap and realized risk is ~0.18% of equity with R:R ~2.4.
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
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action shortsizePct 0.15entry 1761invalidation 1785takeProfit 1713leverage 3riskPct 0.2rr 2confidence 0.35
Whale positioning (0 long / 1 short, recent T3 short increase of $1,314) and slightly positive funding tilt bearish. ADX 90 is extreme but directionally ambiguous, and thin OI makes the tape fragile. Sizing small at 15% notional within the 20% cap; the notional ceiling limits realized risk to ~0.2% of equity, well under the 1% budget. 2R target on 1.5x 1h-ATR stop satisfies the 2:1 minimum.
gpt-5.5
bare
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action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1761invalidation 1776.7takeProfit 1729.7leverage 1riskPct 0.178compliant truemaxNotional 0.2rr 2confidence 0.55
Forced directional call: I choose short because the only directional whale signal is a fresh short increase while funding is neutral, though thin open interest lowers conviction. Position is capped at 20% notional with a 1-ATR stop and 2R target, keeping realized risk well below 1% of equity.
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
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action shortsizePct 0.1entry 1761invalidation 1785takeProfit 1713leverage 1riskPct 0.136compliant truerr 2confidence 0.58
Forced directional call: extremely high ADX supports trend continuation, while the only tracked whale positioning/action is short and funding is neutral, so I choose short. OI is thin and directional evidence is not robust, so size is kept small at 10% notional with risk well below 1% of equity.
qwen3.7-max
bare
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action shortsizePct 0.1entry 1761invalidation 1849.05takeProfit 1584.9leverage 2riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.6
Following the whale short bias and assuming the strong ADX trend aligns with their direction, I am shorting with a wide stop to respect the 20% max notional constraint while risking exactly 1%.
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
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action shortsizePct 0.0667entry 1761invalidation 1784.5takeProfit 1714leverage 3riskPct 0.27compliant truerr 2confidence 0.6
Following the extremely strong trend (ADX 90) and smart-money short positioning, I am shorting ETH. Position size is capped at 20% notional to comply with hard limits, resulting in a smaller risk percentage.
grok-4.3
bare
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action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1761invalidation 1788takeProfit 1707leverage 3riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.65
ADX 90 signals strong trend continuation; whale flow net short and adding shorts favors downside over next 8 h.
grok-4.3
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action shortsizePct 0.05leverage 3riskPct 1confidence 0.6
High ADX=90 confirms strong trend; whale short increase provides directional edge for next 8h despite thin OI.
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
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action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1761invalidation 1776.76takeProfit 1729.5leverage 2riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.68
Extreme ADX of 90 signals a powerful, non-mean-reverting downtrend; whale activity shows a recent T3 short increase of $1,314, reinforcing directional flow. The trade is sized to risk 1% of equity with a 2:1 R:R, targeting a ~1.8% move lower over the 8-hour window.
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.01entry 1761invalidation 1776.67takeProfit 1730leverage 2riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.65
Extremely strong downtrend (ADX 90) with whale positioning confirming bearish bias (net short increase). Low OI and near-flat funding reduce squeeze risk. Short entry aligned with trend and smart money flow.
glm-5.1
bare
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action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1761invalidation 1791takeProfit 1701leverage 3riskPct 0.34rr 2confidence 0.55
ADX at 90 confirms an extremely strong prevailing trend; whale is short and thin OI allows momentum to continue with minimal friction. Short with conservative sizing because such extreme ADX readings carry exhaustion/reversal risk, but the weight of evidence favors bearish continuation over the 8h window.
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1761invalidation 1788takeProfit 1707leverage 2riskPct 0.3rr 2confidence 0.55
ADX at 90 confirms an extremely strong trend; whale smart-money is exclusively short with a recent T3 short increase, aligning directional bias. Shorting with a 1.5% stop (≈1.7× ATR) and 2:1 R:R, sizing to the 20% notional cap at 2× leverage keeps risk at 0.3% of equity—well within the 1% hard limit.