← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

ETH chops near 1788.8 as traders eye a possible breakout above resistance. Given: account $3750, short ETH at 1788.8, stop 1869.3. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many ETH do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in ETH) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.5822981366459627, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.5827entry 1788.8invalidation 1869.3riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget 1.25% of $3750 = $46.875; stop distance is 80.5, so size = 46.875/80.5 ≈ 0.5827 ETH, realizing 1.25% account risk.
⊢ size=0.5827 (exp 0.5823, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.5828entry 1788.8invalidation 1869.3riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3750 = $46.875; stop distance = 80.5 per ETH, so size = 46.875/80.5 ≈ 0.5828 ETH, risking the full 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.5828 (exp 0.5823, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.5823entry 1788.8invalidation 1869.3riskPct 1.25confidence 0.95
The maximum position size given a 1.25% account risk ($46.88) and a stop distance of $80.50 is 0.5823 ETH, resulting in exactly 1.25% risk.
⊢ size=0.5823 (exp 0.5823, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.5823entry 1788.8invalidation 1869.3riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per ETH = $80.50; max risk = 1.25% of $3750 = $46.875; max size = 46.875/80.50 = 0.5823 ETH. That puts 1.25% of account at risk.
⊢ size=0.5823 (exp 0.5823, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.419275sizePct 0.2entry 1788.8invalidation 1869.3leverage 1riskPct 0.9confidence 1
Position size is constrained by the hard rule of 20% maximum notional per trade ($750), resulting in an actual risk of 0.9% which complies with the 1% maximum risk rule.
⊢ size=0.419275 (exp 0.5823, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.419sizePct 0.2entry 1788.8invalidation 1869.3riskPct 0.9confidence 1
Position size is capped by the hard rule of 20% maximum notional per trade ($750), overriding the 1.25% risk allowance and resulting in an actual risk of 0.9%.
⊢ size=0.419 (exp 0.5823, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.5823entry 1788.8invalidation 1869.3riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per ETH = 1869.3 - 1788.8 = 80.5. Max dollar risk = 1.25% × $3750 = $46.875. Size = 46.875 / 80.5 ≈ 0.5823 ETH, which puts exactly 1.25% of equity at risk. Note: notional ≈ $1041.6 (~27.8% of equity) exceeds the 20% notional cap from the standing mandate, so this sizing would not be compliant under the system rules even though it satisfies the stated 1.25% risk rule.
⊢ size=0.5823 (exp 0.5823, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.582entry 1788.8invalidation 1869.3riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Stop distance = 1869.3 − 1788.8 = 80.5. Risk budget at the stated 1.25% house rule = 0.0125 × $3750 = $46.875. Size = $46.875 / $80.5 ≈ 0.582 ETH, putting 1.25% of equity at risk. Note: my standing mandate caps per-trade risk at 1%, which would size to ~0.466 ETH instead.
⊢ size=0.582 (exp 0.5823, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.419275riskPct 0.900045confidence 0.99
Position size is capped by the 20% max-notional mandate: $750 / 1788.8 = 0.419275 ETH. With an $80.5 stop distance, this risks about $33.75, or 0.900045% of the $3750 account.
⊢ size=0.419275 (exp 0.5823, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.900045
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.4193riskPct 0.9confidence 0.99
Using the stricter mandate, size is capped by 20% max notional: $750 / 1788.8 = 0.4193 ETH. With an $80.5 stop distance, this risks about $33.75, or 0.90% of the $3750 account.
⊢ size=0.4193 (exp 0.5823, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.4193entry 1788.8invalidation 1869.3riskPct 0.9compliant trueconfidence 0.5
Size is capped by the hard rule limiting notional to 20% of equity ($750), yielding ~0.4193 ETH. This risks exactly 0.9% of the account, complying with both the 20% notional and 1% max risk limits.
⊢ size=0.4193 (exp 0.5823, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.4192riskPct 0.9confidence 0.5
Hard rules cap notional at 20% of equity ($750) and risk at 1%. This limits size to 0.4192 ETH, resulting in an actual risk of 0.9%, overriding the proposed 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=0.4192 (exp 0.5823, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
grok-4.3
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.4658riskPct 1confidence 0.7
Risk capped at hard 1% rule ($37.5) on $80.5/ETH stop distance yields 0.4658 ETH short.
⊢ size=0.4658 (exp 0.5823, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.4658riskPct 1confidence 0
⊢ size=0.4658 (exp 0.5823, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.0582riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Given a short position at 1788.8 with a stop at 1869.3, risking 1.25% of the $3750 account ($46.875) requires a position size of approximately 0.0582 ETH. The risk is 1.25% as specified by the house rule, but note this exceeds the hard rule of 1% per trade.
⊢ size=0.0582 (exp 0.5823, err 90.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0riskPct 0confidence 0
The setup is a short, but the text suggests a 'possible breakout above resistance,' indicating no clear trend and conflicting signals, which fails the no-edge gate. Standing flat is correct.
⊢ size=0 (exp 0.5823, err 100.0%), riskPct=0
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.5821entry 1788.8invalidation 1869.3riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Position size calculated by dividing the 1.25% risk allowance ($46.875) by the stop distance ($80.5), yielding 0.5821 ETH and an actual account risk of 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.5821 (exp 0.5823, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.5821entry 1788.8invalidation 1869.3riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Calculated position size based on 1.25% max risk and stop distance.
⊢ size=0.5821 (exp 0.5823, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25