← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

HYPE is grinding sideways near 69.61 as funding flips positive and the order book thins out. Given: account $4275, short HYPE at 69.61, stop 72.05. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many HYPE do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in HYPE) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 21.90061475409838, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 21.9entry 69.61invalidation 72.05riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $4275 = $53.44; stop distance = 2.44, so size = 53.44/2.44 ≈ 21.9 HYPE, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=21.9 (exp 21.9006, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 21.9entry 69.61invalidation 72.05riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Max risk 1.25% of $4275 = $53.44; stop distance is 72.05-69.61 = $2.44, giving 21.9 HYPE, realizing ~1.25% account risk.
⊢ size=21.9 (exp 21.9006, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 21.9riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Maximum risk allowed is 1.25% of $4275 = $53.44. Risk per HYPE = $72.05 - $69.61 = $2.44. Size = $53.44 / $2.44 ≈ 21.90 HYPE, which risks exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=21.9 (exp 21.9006, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 12.28sizePct 0.2entry 69.61invalidation 72.05leverage 1riskPct 0.7confidence 0.5
Notional cap of 20% equity ($855) limits size to 12.28 HYPE. Risk per unit $2.44, total risk $29.96 (0.70% of equity), within the 1.25% rule.
⊢ size=12.28 (exp 21.9006, err 43.9%), riskPct=0.7
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 12.28entry 69.61invalidation 72.05riskPct 0.7confidence 1
Position size is capped by the 20% maximum notional rule rather than the 1% risk limit, resulting in 12.28 HYPE and 0.70% risk.
⊢ size=12.28 (exp 21.9006, err 43.9%), riskPct=0.7
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 12.28riskPct 0.701confidence 1
Grinding sideways action indicates no edge, dictating a flat position. If executed, size must be capped at 12.28 HYPE to respect the 20% max notional hard rule, resulting in a realized risk of 0.701% instead of the requested 1.25%.
⊢ size=12.28 (exp 21.9006, err 43.9%), riskPct=0.701
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 21.9entry 69.61invalidation 72.05riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0.4
Per house rule: 1.25% of $4275 = $53.44 risk budget; stop distance = 72.05 - 69.61 = $2.44 => size ≈ 21.90 HYPE, riskPct = 1.25%. Notional ≈ $1524 (35.7% of equity) breaches the 20% notional cap and 1% risk ceiling from policy, so flagged non-compliant.
⊢ size=21.9 (exp 21.9006, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 12.28riskPct 0.7confidence 0.5
Risk-based sizing at 1.25% gives 21.90 HYPE, but the 20% notional cap binds first: 0.20 × $4275 / $69.61 ≈ 12.28 HYPE. Actual risk = 12.28 × $2.44 / $4275 ≈ 0.70%.
⊢ size=12.28 (exp 21.9006, err 43.9%), riskPct=0.7
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 12.2827riskPct 0.701confidence 0.95
Stop distance is 2.44; the mandate caps notional at 20% of equity, so max size is 855 / 69.61 = 12.2827 HYPE. Actual risk is 12.2827 * 2.44 = 29.97 dollars, or 0.701% of the account.
⊢ size=12.2827 (exp 21.9006, err 43.9%), riskPct=0.701
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 12.2827riskPct 0.701confidence 0.9
Using the stricter mandate, max notional is capped at 20% of equity: $855 / 69.61 = 12.2827 HYPE. With a $2.44 stop distance, actual risk is about $29.97, or 0.701% of the account.
⊢ size=12.2827 (exp 21.9006, err 43.9%), riskPct=0.701
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 12.28entry 69.61invalidation 72.05riskPct 0.7confidence 0.45
The 20% notional cap ($855) is the binding constraint, limiting size to 12.28 HYPE and actual risk to 0.70%—well below the 1% hard cap. Sideways grind with thinning book and positive funding offers weak edge, so reduced exposure is appropriate.
⊢ size=12.28 (exp 21.9006, err 43.9%), riskPct=0.7
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 12.28riskPct 0.7confidence 0
Standing flat due to sideways chop and no clear edge. If traded, size is capped at 12.28 HYPE (0.7% risk) by the 20% notional hard rule, which overrides the requested 1.25% risk.
⊢ size=12.28 (exp 21.9006, err 43.9%), riskPct=0.7
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 21.9riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Risk 1.25% ($53.44) on 2.44$ stop distance yields 21.9 HYPE short.
⊢ size=21.9 (exp 21.9006, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 21.9riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Risk budget 1.25% of 4275 allows $53.44 loss; 2.44 stop distance supports 21.9 HYPE short.
⊢ size=21.9 (exp 21.9006, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortentry 69.61invalidation 72.05riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Calculating risk and size based on provided parameters and 1.25% risk rule.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 21.82entry 69.61invalidation 72.05riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Calculation of position size based on account equity, entry, and stop to limit risk to 1.25% as per house rule.
⊢ size=21.82 (exp 21.9006, err 0.4%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 21.91riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Position size is 1.25% of equity ($53.44) divided by the $2.44 stop distance, resulting in 21.91 HYPE; actual risk remains 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=21.91 (exp 21.9006, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 21.91riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Calculated 21.91 HYPE by dividing max risk of $53.44 (1.25% of $4275) by the $2.44 stop distance, resulting in 1.25% account risk.
⊢ size=21.91 (exp 21.9006, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25