← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

HYPE rips on a fresh listing announcement as funding flips deeply negative. Given: account $3825, short HYPE at 67.73, stop 72.81. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many HYPE do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in HYPE) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 9.411909448818902, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 9.41entry 67.73invalidation 72.81riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3825 = $47.81; stop distance = 5.08, so size = 47.81/5.08 ≈ 9.41 HYPE, risking the full 1.25%.
⊢ size=9.41 (exp 9.4119, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 9.41entry 67.73invalidation 72.81riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3825 = $47.81; stop distance = 5.08, so size = 47.81/5.08 ≈ 9.41 HYPE, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=9.41 (exp 9.4119, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 9.4123riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Max size under 1.25% account risk rule: $47.81 risk / $5.08 per HYPE = 9.4123 HYPE, risking exactly 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=9.4123 (exp 9.4119, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 9.41riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Account risk 1.25% = $47.81, per unit risk $5.08, gives size 9.41 HYPE.
⊢ size=9.41 (exp 9.4119, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 7.5295entry 67.73invalidation 72.81riskPct 1confidence 0.9
The 1% hard rule overrides the 1.25% house rule, capping risk at $38.25 (7.5295 HYPE). However, shorting a ripping asset on a fresh listing with deeply negative funding is a massive squeeze risk, so the correct action is to stand flat.
⊢ size=7.5295 (exp 9.4119, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 7.52sizePct 0.133entry 67.73invalidation 72.81takeProfit 57.57leverage 1riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.9
The hard rule of 1% maximum risk overrides the 1.25% house rule. Risking 1% of $3825 ($38.25) with a $5.08 stop distance allows a maximum size of 7.52 HYPE.
⊢ size=7.52 (exp 9.4119, err 20.1%), riskPct=1
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 9.41entry 67.73invalidation 72.81riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per unit = 72.81 - 67.73 = 5.08. Max risk = 0.0125 * 3825 = 47.81 USD. Size = 47.81 / 5.08 ≈ 9.41 HYPE, risking ~1.25% of account. Notional ≈ 637 USD (~16.7% of equity), within limits.
⊢ size=9.41 (exp 9.4119, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 9.41sizePct 0.1666entry 67.73invalidation 72.81leverage 1riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0.2
Per the 1.25% house rule, max risk = $47.81; size = 47.81 / (72.81-67.73) = 47.81/5.08 ≈ 9.41 HYPE, giving notional ≈ $637 (≈16.7% of equity, ~0.17x leverage). However, this violates my 1% per-trade hard rule (compliant=false), and the context — HYPE ripping on a fresh listing while funding flips deeply negative — is a textbook short-squeeze signature, so I would not actually deploy this size and would instead be flat or evaluating a long on confirmation.
⊢ size=9.41 (exp 9.4119, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 7.529527559055118riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Stop distance is 5.08 per HYPE; under the 1% hard risk cap, max dollar risk is 38.25, giving 7.5295 HYPE. The requested 1.25% house risk would exceed the mandate, so size is capped at 1% account risk.
⊢ size=7.529527559055118 (exp 9.4119, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 7.53riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Developer mandate caps risk at 1% despite the stated 1.25% house rule. With a $5.08 stop distance, $38.25 max risk allows 7.53 HYPE.
⊢ size=7.53 (exp 9.4119, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 7.53entry 67.73invalidation 72.81riskPct 1confidence 0.25
Hard rule caps risk at 1% ($38.25) overriding the stated 1.25%, giving 38.25/5.08 = 7.53 HYPE. Shorting a rip with deeply negative funding is a textbook short-squeeze setup—very low edge.
⊢ size=7.53 (exp 9.4119, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 7.53entry 67.73invalidation 72.81takeProfit 57.57leverage 1riskPct 1compliant truerr 2confidence 0.4
Hard rules cap risk at 1% (overriding the 1.25% house rule), yielding 7.53 HYPE. Shorting a rip with deeply negative funding carries squeeze risk, so conviction is low and size stays minimal.
⊢ size=7.53 (exp 9.4119, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 9.4114riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Risk distance 5.08, 1.25% of 3825 allows 47.8125 USD risk, yielding size 47.8125/5.08.
⊢ size=9.4114 (exp 9.4119, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 9.41riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
sized to house-rule max risk of 1.25% given 5.08 stop distance
⊢ size=9.41 (exp 9.4119, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0riskPct 0confidence 0.9
No trade. The setup is shorting a fresh listing with deeply negative funding, which is counter-trend and high-risk. The max risk per the house rule is 1.25% of $3825 = $47.81. The stop is 5.08 points away, so size would be 47.81/5.08 ≈ 9.41 HYPE, risking $47.81 (1.25%). However, the trade itself lacks edge and violates survival principles.
⊢ size=0 (exp 9.4119, err 100.0%), riskPct=0
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatentry 67.73invalidation 72.81riskPct 1.25confidence 0
The question is a pure calculation. Max risk = $3825 * 1.25% = $47.8125. Stop distance = 72.81 - 67.73 = $5.08. Size = $47.8125 / $5.08 ≈ 9.4119 HYPE. However, a short against a 'rip' with deeply negative funding (forcing shorts to pay) is a very low-conviction, counter-trend trade with poor structural tailwinds; standing flat is the disciplined move despite the calculation.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 9.41entry 67.73invalidation 72.81riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Max dollar risk = 1.25% × $3825 = $47.81; stop distance = $5.08; size = $47.81 / $5.08 ≈ 9.41 HYPE; actual risk = (9.41 × 5.08) / 3825 = 1.25%.
⊢ size=9.41 (exp 9.4119, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 9.41entry 67.73invalidation 72.81riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Shorting HYPE with deeply negative funding after a rip; size calculated as (1.25% × $3825) / ($72.81 − $67.73) = $47.81 / $5.08 ≈ 9.41 HYPE, risking 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=9.41 (exp 9.4119, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25