← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

ETH consolidates above a key support shelf as funding flips neutral. Given: long ETH — entry 1827.1, stop 1763.15, target 1993.37. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.600000000000007, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1827.1invalidation 1763.15takeProfit 1993.37rr 2.6confidence 0.7
Risk is 63.95 and reward is 166.27, giving R:R of ~2.6 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1827.1invalidation 1763.15takeProfit 1993.37rr 2.6confidence 0.6
Risk is 63.95 and reward is 166.27, giving R:R ~2.6 which clears the 2.0 minimum, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.5994confidence 0.5
The reward-to-risk ratio is 2.6, exceeding the minimum 2 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.5994 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.6confidence 0.5
Reward:risk is 2.6, exceeding the required minimum of 2.0, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1827.1invalidation 1763.15takeProfit 1993.37rr 2.6confidence 1
The calculated reward to risk ratio is 2.6, which satisfies the strict mandate requirement of being greater than or equal to 2.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1827.1invalidation 1763.15takeProfit 1993.37rr 2.6confidence 0.9
The reward to risk ratio is 2.6, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making the trade viable.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1827.1invalidation 1763.15takeProfit 1993.37rr 2.6confidence 0.72
Reward = 1993.37 - 1827.1 = 166.27; Risk = 1827.1 - 1763.15 = 63.95; R:R = 166.27/63.95 ≈ 2.60, which meets the >=2 minimum, so the trade is taken.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1827.1invalidation 1763.15takeProfit 1993.37rr 2.6confidence 0.7
Reward:risk = (1993.37-1827.1)/(1827.1-1763.15) = 166.27/63.95 ≈ 2.60, which exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold, so the trade qualifies on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.6confidence 0.9
Reward:risk is 2.6, which meets the minimum requirement of 2. The trade is eligible on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.6confidence 0.7
Reward is 166.27 versus risk of 63.95, giving an R:R of 2.6, which meets the minimum threshold of 2.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.2entry 1827.1invalidation 1763.15takeProfit 1993.37leverage 1riskPct 0.7rr 2.6confidence 0.65
R:R of 2.6 exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold; ETH holding above key support with neutral funding favors a long, but notional is capped at 20% of equity which limits risk to 0.7%.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.2entry 1827.1invalidation 1763.15takeProfit 1993.37leverage 1riskPct 0.7rr 2.6confidence 0.55
R:R of 2.6 exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold; ETH holding above support with neutral funding offers a valid long setup, sized conservatively at the 20% notional cap yielding 0.7% equity risk.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.6confidence 0.9
RR exactly 2.6 which meets the >=2 threshold so trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.6confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1827.1invalidation 1763.15takeProfit 1993.37rr 2.6confidence 0.7
Reward:risk is 2.6 (target 166.27, stop 63.95), exceeding the required minimum of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.58confidence 0.6
Reward-to-risk ratio of 2.58 meets the >=2 threshold. Funding is neutral and consolidation is present, so conviction is moderate.
⊢ rr=2.58 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.61confidence 0.5
Reward-to-risk ratio is 2.61, which exceeds the minimum threshold of 2, so the trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.61 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1827.1invalidation 1763.15takeProfit 1993.37rr 2.6confidence 0.6
R:R is 2.6 (reward 166.27 vs risk 63.95), exceeding the 2.0 minimum; support shelf holding with neutral funding allows a long.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true