← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

BTC is consolidating near a key support zone after a sharp overnight drop. Given: account $3750, short BTC at 66330, stop 69314.85. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many BTC do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in BTC) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.01570430674908284, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0157entry 66330invalidation 69314.85riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3750 = $46.875; stop distance = $2984.85, so size = 0.01570 BTC, risking exactly 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=0.0157 (exp 0.0157, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0157entry 66330invalidation 69314.85riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Stop distance is 2984.85; max risk 1.25% of $3750 = $46.875, so size = 46.875/2984.85 ≈ 0.0157 BTC, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.0157 (exp 0.0157, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0157riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Account equity is $3750. Max risk is 1.25% of equity = $46.875. Short entry 66330, stop 69314.85, so risk per BTC = $2984.85. Required size = 46.875 / 2984.85 ≈ 0.0157 BTC. Risk% is exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.0157 (exp 0.0157, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0157riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Risk per unit = 69314.85 - 66330 = 2984.85. Max risk = 3750 * 0.0125 = 46.875. Size = 46.875 / 2984.85 ≈ 0.0157 BTC. Risk is exactly 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=0.0157 (exp 0.0157, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.011307entry 66330invalidation 69314.85riskPct 0.9confidence 1
The 1% hard risk rule allows for $37.50 risk, but the 20% max notional rule caps the position size at $750, reducing the actual risk to 0.9%.
⊢ size=0.011307 (exp 0.0157, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.011307entry 66330invalidation 69314.85riskPct 0.9confidence 0.9
Although the prompt suggests a 1.25% risk, hard rules cap risk at 1% and max notional at 20% of equity ($750). The 20% notional limit restricts the size to 0.011307 BTC, resulting in an actual risk of 0.9%.
⊢ size=0.011307 (exp 0.0157, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0157entry 66330invalidation 69314.85riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Stop distance = 69314.85 - 66330 = $2984.85. Max risk = 1.25% × $3750 = $46.875. Size = 46.875 / 2984.85 = 0.0157 BTC, putting 1.25% of equity at risk. However, notional = 0.0157 × 66330 ≈ $1041 (27.8% of equity), which breaches the 20% notional cap; sizing down to 0.0113 BTC ($750 notional) keeps the trade compliant, reducing actual risk to ~0.90%.
⊢ size=0.0157 (exp 0.0157, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0113entry 66330invalidation 69314.85riskPct 0.9compliant truemaxNotional 750confidence 0.5
Risk-based size = $46.875 / $2984.85 = 0.01570 BTC, but 20% notional cap ($750 / $66330) = 0.01131 BTC is tighter, so size = 0.0113 BTC with actual risk = 0.0113 × $2984.85 / $3750 = 0.9%.
⊢ size=0.0113 (exp 0.0157, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0113071riskPct 0.9confidence 0.9
Sizing is capped by the 20% max notional rule: $750 notional at 66330 equals 0.0113071 BTC. With a 2984.85 stop distance, actual risk is $33.75, or 0.9% of the $3750 account.
⊢ size=0.0113071 (exp 0.0157, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.011307riskPct 0.9confidence 0.8
Size is capped by the stricter mandate notional limit: 20% of $3750 = $750, so $750 / $66330 = 0.011307 BTC. With a $2984.85 stop distance, actual risk is about $33.75, or 0.90% of the account.
⊢ size=0.011307 (exp 0.0157, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0157entry 66330invalidation 69314.85riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Stop distance is 2984.85 per BTC. Max risk is 1.25% of $3750 = $46.875. Size = 46.875 / 2984.85 ≈ 0.0157 BTC, realizing ~1.25% account risk. Note: notional ~$1041 exceeds the 20%-of-equity hard cap ($750), so this trade would be rejected in practice.
⊢ size=0.0157 (exp 0.0157, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0157entry 66330invalidation 69314.85riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Stop distance is 2984.85; max dollar risk at 1.25% of $3750 is $46.875, yielding 46.875/2984.85 ≈ 0.0157 BTC. Actual risk equals the 1.25% cap by construction.
⊢ size=0.0157 (exp 0.0157, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0157riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Risk 1.25% ($46.875) on 2984.85 $/BTC distance yields 0.0157 BTC short size.
⊢ size=0.0157 (exp 0.0157, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.015706riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk 1.25% ($46.875) on 2984.85 $ distance yields 0.015706 BTC short.
⊢ size=0.015706 (exp 0.0157, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.015739entry 66330invalidation 69314.85riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Calculating position size to risk exactly 1.25% of the $3750 account ($46.875) on this short from 66330 with a stop at 69314.85, which gives a size of ~0.0157 BTC.
⊢ size=0.015739 (exp 0.0157, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortentry 66330invalidation 69314.85riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
House rule sets max risk at 1.25% of $3750 = $46.875. Stop distance is $2984.85, so position size = 46.875 / 2984.85 ≈ 0.0157 BTC.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0157riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position size of 0.0157 BTC is derived by dividing the 1.25% max risk amount ($46.875) by the stop distance ($2,984.85), resulting in an actual account risk of exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.0157 (exp 0.0157, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
— no answer
no answer