← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

ETH coils beneath a stubborn resistance shelf as funding flips slightly positive. Given: long ETH — entry 1839.7, stop 1775.31, target 1984.58. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.2500388259046384, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1839.7invalidation 1775.31takeProfit 1984.58rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Risk is 64.39 (1839.7-1775.31), reward is 144.88 (1984.58-1839.7), giving R:R of ~2.25 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1839.7invalidation 1775.31takeProfit 1984.58rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Risk 64.39, reward 144.88, R:R ≈ 2.25 which clears the 2:1 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.9
Reward:risk is 2.25:1, meeting the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.25confidence 0.3
Reward:risk is 2.25 but price coiling under resistance with slightly positive funding offers no clear edge; no-trade gate triggered.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=false canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1839.7invalidation 1775.31takeProfit 1984.58rr 2.25confidence 1
The calculated reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the strict mandate requirement of being greater than or equal to 2.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1839.7invalidation 1775.31takeProfit 1984.58rr 2.25confidence 0.9
The reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, allowing the trade to be taken.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1839.7invalidation 1775.31takeProfit 1984.58rr 2.25confidence 0.62
Reward (144.88) / Risk (64.39) = 2.25, which clears the >=2 mandate threshold, so the trade is permissible; mildly positive funding supports the long bias despite resistance overhead.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1839.7invalidation 1775.31takeProfit 1984.58rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Reward:risk = (1984.58-1839.7)/(1839.7-1775.31) = 144.88/64.39 ≈ 2.25, which meets the >=2 minimum. Long setup with positive funding and coiled price action supports directional bias.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.8
Reward is 144.88 versus risk of 64.39, giving an R:R of about 2.25. This meets the minimum 2:1 threshold, so the trade is acceptable on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.9
Reward:risk is approximately 2.25, which meets the minimum threshold of 2. The trade is acceptable on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1839.7invalidation 1775.31takeProfit 1984.58rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Reward:risk is 144.88/64.39 ≈ 2.25, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade is acceptable on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1839.7invalidation 1775.31takeProfit 1984.58rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Reward-to-risk ratio is 2.25 (144.88 / 64.39), which exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade qualifies on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 1
RR=144.88/64.39=2.25 meets minimum threshold of 2
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.25confidence 0.7
Reward:risk is 2.25, which meets the minimum 2:1 requirement. However, the trade setup describes ETH coiling beneath stubborn resistance with only slightly positive funding, suggesting weak upward momentum. The probability of success is lower than ideal for a long position against resistance, warranting caution despite the compliant R:R.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=false canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.25confidence 0.4
RR is 2.25 which meets the minimum threshold, but ETH is coiling beneath stubborn resistance with only slightly positive funding, indicating weak trend and unclear directional edge. The no-edge gate applies here — stand flat on a chop board.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=false canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1839.7invalidation 1775.31takeProfit 1984.58rr 2.25confidence 0.6
R:R of 2.25 exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold; trade is valid under mandate rules.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.25confidence 0.3
R:R is 2.25 which clears the 2x hurdle, but coiling under stubborn resistance with only slightly positive funding and no clear trend or smart-money signal triggers the no-edge gate—stand flat.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=false canTrade=true