← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

BTC hovers near a key resistance level as funding rates flip positive. Given: account $3750, short BTC at 66852, stop 69191.82. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many BTC do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in BTC) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.020033592327614886, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.02003entry 66852invalidation 69191.82riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Stop distance is 2339.82; risking 1.25% of $3750 ($46.875) gives ~0.02003 BTC, putting exactly 1.25% of the account at risk.
⊢ size=0.02003 (exp 0.0200, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.02003entry 66852invalidation 69191.82riskPct 1.25confidence 0.55
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3750 = $46.875; stop distance = 2339.82, so size = 46.875/2339.82 ≈ 0.02003 BTC, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.02003 (exp 0.0200, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.02riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risk per BTC is $2339.82; maximum risk of 1.25% of $3750 is $46.875; size = 46.875/2339.82 ≈ 0.02 BTC.
⊢ size=0.02 (exp 0.0200, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.02003entry 66852invalidation 69191.82riskPct 1.25compliant trueconfidence 1
Risk per BTC is 2339.82. Max risk 1.25% of $3750 is $46.875. Position size = 46.875 / 2339.82 = 0.02003 BTC, risking exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.02003 (exp 0.0200, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0112188riskPct 0.7confidence 1
Position size is capped by the hard rule limiting a single position's notional to 20% of equity ($750). This restricts the size to 0.0112188 BTC, resulting in a 0.7% risk, which strictly complies with the 1% maximum risk rule despite the 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=0.0112188 (exp 0.0200, err 44.0%), riskPct=0.7
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0112188sizePct 0.2entry 66852invalidation 69191.82leverage 1riskPct 0.7maxNotional 750confidence 0.9
Although the house rule allows 1.25% risk, the hard mandate caps risk at 1% and max notional at 20% of equity ($750). The 20% notional limit is the stricter constraint here, restricting the size to 0.0112188 BTC and resulting in an actual risk of 0.7%.
⊢ size=0.0112188 (exp 0.0200, err 44.0%), riskPct=0.7
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.02003entry 66852invalidation 69191.82riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per BTC = 69191.82 - 66852 = 2339.82. Max risk = 1.25% * 3750 = 46.875. Size = 46.875 / 2339.82 ≈ 0.02003 BTC, which risks exactly 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=0.02003 (exp 0.0200, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.02entry 66852invalidation 69191.82riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Stop distance = 69191.82 − 66852 = $2339.82 per BTC. Max risk = 1.25% × $3750 = $46.875. Size = 46.875 / 2339.82 ≈ 0.0200 BTC, which risks exactly 1.25% of equity. Note: notional ≈ $1337 exceeds the 20%-of-equity notional cap ($750), so a strict mandate would force a smaller size (~0.0112 BTC, ~0.7% risk).
⊢ size=0.02 (exp 0.0200, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.01121881riskPct 0.7confidence 0.95
Position size is capped by the 20% notional limit: $750 / 66852 = 0.01121881 BTC. At the stop distance of 2339.82, this risks $26.25, or 0.70% of the $3750 account.
⊢ size=0.01121881 (exp 0.0200, err 44.0%), riskPct=0.7
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.01121881riskPct 0.7confidence 0.6
Size is capped by the 20% equity notional limit: $750 / 66852 = 0.01121881 BTC. With a $2339.82 stop distance, this risks $26.25, or 0.7% of the $3750 account.
⊢ size=0.01121881 (exp 0.0200, err 44.0%), riskPct=0.7
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.02entry 66852invalidation 69191.82riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk amount is $3750 × 1.25% = $46.875. Stop distance is 69191.82 − 66852 = 2339.82. Size = 46.875 / 2339.82 ≈ 0.02 BTC. Actual risk is 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=0.02 (exp 0.0200, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.011219entry 66852invalidation 69191.82takeProfit 62172.36leverage 0.2riskPct 0.7rr 2confidence 0.6
Size is constrained by the hard rule capping notional at 20% of equity ($750), which limits the position to 0.011219 BTC and results in an actual risk of 0.7%, correctly overriding both the 1.25% prompt suggestion and the 1% max risk limit.
⊢ size=0.011219 (exp 0.0200, err 44.0%), riskPct=0.7
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.02riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk budget 1.25% of 3750 yields 46.875 USD; delta 2339.82 implies size 0.02 BTC.
⊢ size=0.02 (exp 0.0200, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.02003riskPct 1.25confidence 0
⊢ size=0.02003 (exp 0.0200, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01989riskPct 1.25confidence 0.55
Position sized to exactly 1.25% risk per house rule, with stop at 69191.82.
⊢ size=0.01989 (exp 0.0200, err 0.7%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.02entry 66852invalidation 69191.82riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
BTC at resistance with positive funding, supporting a short. Position sized to risk exactly 1.25% of equity as per the house rule.
⊢ size=0.02 (exp 0.0200, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.02entry 66852invalidation 69191.82riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Calculated position size based on 1.25% max risk over the stop distance.
⊢ size=0.02 (exp 0.0200, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 0.5
⊢ missing size or riskPct