← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

SOL is chopping sideways after a sharp morning spike, tempting traders to fade the move. Given: account $3450, short SOL at 73.89, stop 77.22. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many SOL do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in SOL) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 12.950450450450457, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 12.94entry 73.89invalidation 77.22riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget is 1.25% of $3450 = $43.13; stop distance is $3.33, so size = 43.13/3.33 ≈ 12.94 SOL, risking the full 1.25%.
⊢ size=12.94 (exp 12.9505, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 12.94entry 73.89invalidation 77.22riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3450 = $43.13; stop distance = $3.33, so size = 43.13/3.33 ≈ 12.94 SOL, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=12.94 (exp 12.9505, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 12.95riskPct 1.249confidence 1
Risk per SOL = stop - entry = $3.33. Max risk = 1.25% of $3450 = $43.125. Size = max risk / risk per SOL = 12.95 SOL. Actual risk = 12.95 * $3.33 = $43.09, which is 1.249% of account.
⊢ size=12.95 (exp 12.9505, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.249
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 12.9505riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Short SOL size to risk exactly 1.25% of $3450 account with stop at 77.22
⊢ size=12.9505 (exp 12.9505, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 9.338riskPct 0.901confidence 1
SOL is chopping sideways with no clear edge, dictating a flat stance. If traded, the hard rule limiting max notional to 20% of equity ($690) caps the size at 9.338 SOL, resulting in a 0.901% risk, which overrides the user's 1.25% risk rule.
⊢ size=9.338 (exp 12.9505, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.901
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 9.338riskPct 0.901confidence 0
SOL is chopping sideways with no clear edge, so the mandate dictates standing flat. If taken, the 20% max notional rule caps the position at $690 (9.338 SOL), which represents a 0.901% account risk, overriding the 1% risk limit.
⊢ size=9.338 (exp 12.9505, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.901
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 12.95entry 73.89invalidation 77.22riskPct 1.25confidence 0.95
Risk budget = 1.25% × $3450 = $43.125. Stop distance = 77.22 − 73.89 = $3.33 per SOL. Size = $43.125 / $3.33 ≈ 12.95 SOL, which puts exactly 1.25% of equity at risk. Note: notional ≈ $957 (~27.7% of equity) would breach the 20% notional cap, so a stricter cap would reduce size further.
⊢ size=12.95 (exp 12.9505, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 12.95entry 73.89invalidation 77.22riskPct 0.0125confidence 0
Position sized to the stated 1.25% house rule: risk = 0.0125 × $3450 = $43.125; stop distance = 77.22 − 73.89 = $3.33; size = 43.125 / 3.33 ≈ 12.95 SOL, putting exactly 1.25% of equity at risk.
⊢ size=12.95 (exp 12.9505, err 0.0%), riskPct=0.0125
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 9.33820544051969riskPct 0.9012553255645095confidence 0.99
Size is capped by the stricter mandate: max 1% risk and 20% notional. The 20% notional cap binds, giving 9.3382 SOL and about 0.9013% account risk.
⊢ size=9.33820544051969 (exp 12.9505, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9012553255645095
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0riskPct 0confidence 0.78
SOL is described as chopping after a spike, so the no-edge gate says do not fade without confirmation. If sizing mechanically under the stricter 1% mandate, max size would be about 10.36 SOL, but no position is taken here.
⊢ size=0 (exp 12.9505, err 100.0%), riskPct=0
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 12.95entry 73.89invalidation 77.22riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0.3
Position sized to 1.25% risk: $43.125 max loss / $3.33 stop distance = 12.95 SOL. Non-compliant: 1.25% exceeds the 1% hard-rule cap, and notional ($956.88) is 27.7% of equity, breaching the 20% single-position limit.
⊢ size=12.95 (exp 12.9505, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 12.95riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0
Pure calculation: $43.125 risk (1.25% of $3450) / $3.33 stop distance = 12.95 SOL. However, this violates hard rules: risk exceeds 1% cap and notional ($957) exceeds 20% of equity ($690). Combined with choppy sideways price action offering no edge, the correct trade is flat.
⊢ size=12.95 (exp 12.9505, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 10.36riskPct 1confidence 0.8
No clear edge in sideways chop; risk capped at hard 1% rule yields size 10.36 SOL.
⊢ size=10.36 (exp 12.9505, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 12.95riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Chop = no edge; stand flat. Size calc shown only to answer the arithmetic query.
⊢ size=12.95 (exp 12.9505, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 0.7
Choppy sideways price action offers no clear edge; fading a sharp move is speculative. Stand flat and wait for a clearer setup.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 128entry 73.89invalidation 77.22riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Calculated position size to match the house rule risk limit of 1.25% of the $3450 account given the short entry and stop distance.
⊢ size=128 (exp 12.9505, err 888.4%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 12.95sizePct 0.277entry 73.89invalidation 77.22takeProfit 67.23leverage 1riskPct 1.25compliant truemaxNotional 956.88rr 2confidence 0.6
Position size of 12.95 SOL keeps risk at exactly 1.25% of account equity ($43.13 risk) based on the 3.33 stop distance.
⊢ size=12.95 (exp 12.9505, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 9.34riskPct 0.9confidence 0.5
Position size is capped by the 20% notional hard rule (9.34 SOL, $690 notional), which results in an actual risk of 0.9% of equity, below the 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=9.34 (exp 12.9505, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9