← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

HYPE catches a fresh wave of L2 enthusiasm as funding flips positive. Given: long HYPE — entry 67.96, stop 65.58, target 73.31. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.2478991596638735, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.96invalidation 65.58takeProfit 73.31rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Risk is 2.38 (67.96-65.58), reward is 5.35 (73.31-67.96), giving R:R of 2.25 which meets the >=2 threshold; positive funding and L2 momentum support the long.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.96invalidation 65.58takeProfit 73.31rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Risk = 2.38, reward = 5.35, R:R = 2.25 which meets the >=2 threshold, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.248confidence 0.95
Risk is 2.38 (67.96 - 65.58), reward is 5.35 (73.31 - 67.96), ratio 2.25 > 2, so the trade passes the reward:risk filter.
⊢ rr=2.248 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2479confidence 0.5
Risk is 2.38, reward is 5.35, giving RR of 2.25 which meets the minimum 2 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.2479 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.96invalidation 65.58takeProfit 73.31rr 2.2479confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making the trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.2479 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.96invalidation 65.58takeProfit 73.31rr 2.2478991596638656confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which meets the minimum requirement of 2.0, allowing the trade to be taken.
⊢ rr=2.2478991596638656 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.96invalidation 65.58takeProfit 73.31rr 2.25confidence 0.72
Reward (5.35) / risk (2.38) = 2.25, which meets the >=2 threshold, so the trade is permitted.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
Reward = 73.31 - 67.96 = 5.35; Risk = 67.96 - 65.58 = 2.38; R:R = 5.35/2.38 ≈ 2.25, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold. Trade qualifies as a long.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.99
Reward is 5.35 and risk is 2.38, giving an R:R of about 2.25. This meets the minimum reward:risk requirement of 2, so the trade can be taken.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.72
Reward is 5.35 versus risk of 2.38, giving an R:R of about 2.25, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.6
Reward:risk is 5.35/2.38 ≈ 2.25, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
Reward:risk is 5.35/2.38 ≈ 2.25, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade is acceptable on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatrr 1.83confidence 0.95
Reward:risk is 1.83 (target 73.31 vs entry 67.96 = 5.35 reward; stop 65.58 vs entry 67.96 = 2.38 risk). This is below the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade is skipped.
⊢ rr=1.83 (exp 2.25), took=false canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.24confidence 0.7
Reward:risk of 2.24 meets the 2:1 minimum threshold, and positive funding aligns with the L2 enthusiasm narrative, providing a tradable edge.
⊢ rr=2.24 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.96invalidation 65.58takeProfit 73.31rr 2.25confidence 0.7
Reward-to-risk ratio is approximately 2.25, which exceeds the minimum threshold of 2, making the trade valid to take.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
Risk = 67.96 - 65.58 = 2.38; Reward = 73.31 - 67.96 = 5.35; R:R = 5.35/2.38 ≈ 2.25, which exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true