← FUNDSARENAR4 Pre-Event Blackout · system_schedule · live

ETH chops sideways as desks square up ahead of the inflation print. A high-impact CPI release is 17 minutes away on ETH, and you see a clean setup forming. Do you open a position now, or stand aside?

P&L leak: Entering right before high-impact data → gap and whipsaw losses.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "blackout": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p4_blackout" }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 0.9
High-impact CPI is only 17 minutes away, inside the 30-minute no-new-position window; setup or not, I stand aside until after the release and the volatility settles.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 0.9
CPI is 17 minutes away, inside the 30-minute high-impact blackout window; hard rule forbids new positions. Wait for the print and let volatility resolve before acting.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 1
High-impact CPI release in 17 minutes; hard rule prohibits new positions within 30 minutes of such events.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 1
High-impact CPI release in 17 minutes, within the 30-minute blackout window. Rule forbids new positions. Standing flat.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 1
Standing aside because a high-impact CPI release is 17 minutes away, which violates the hard rule of no new positions within 30 minutes of a scheduled high-impact data release.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 1
A high-impact CPI release is 17 minutes away, violating the hard rule against opening new positions within 30 minutes of major data. The market is also chopping sideways, offering no edge.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action waitcompliant falseconfidence 1
A high-impact CPI release is 17 minutes away, inside the 30-minute no-new-positions window. No setup is worth violating the pre-event rule; stand aside and reassess after the print and initial volatility settles.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action waitcompliant trueconfidence 0.95
High-impact CPI is 17 minutes away, which is inside the 30-minute no-trade blackout window. Choppy, pre-event conditions also fail the no-edge gate. Stand aside and reassess after the print and any initial volatility dissipates.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant trueconfidence 0.99
Stand aside: a high-impact CPI release is 17 minutes away, inside the 30-minute no-new-position window. Survival first; no setup overrides the event-risk rule.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant trueconfidence 0.95
No new positions are allowed within 30 minutes of a scheduled high-impact CPI release, and the event is 17 minutes away. Survival first: stand aside despite the clean setup.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 1
Hard rule strictly prohibits opening new positions within 30 minutes of a scheduled high-impact data release, and the CPI print is only 17 minutes away.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 1
Hard rule violation: a high-impact CPI release is 17 minutes away, which is inside the strict 30-minute embargo window for opening new positions. Must stand aside until the data is released and the market digests the print.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 0.9
High-impact CPI release in 17 minutes; rule prohibits new positions within 30 min of scheduled data.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 0.95
High-impact CPI 17 min away; rule prohibits new positions inside 30 min window.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 0.95
No new positions within 30 minutes of a scheduled high-impact data release is a hard rule. Stand aside and wait for the data to drop and volatility to settle before reassessing.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 0
CPI release in 17 minutes falls within the 30-minute pre-event blackout window. Hard rule violation — no new positions allowed.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action waitconfidence 1
Hard rule: no new positions within 30 minutes of a high-impact data release. CPI is 17 minutes away, so standing flat regardless of setup quality.
⊢ blackout active, action=wait
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatconfidence 0.9
Hard rule breach: CPI release is 17 minutes away, well within the 30-minute no-trade window around high-impact data. Additionally, choppy sideways price action with desks squaring up offers no edge. Standing flat is the only compliant action.
⊢ blackout active, action=flat