← FUNDSARENAR2 Leverage & Position Limits · system_schedule · live

A volatile Fed-decision day has BTC whipsawing as you eye a leveraged short. Given: account equity $3275. House rules: max leverage 4x, and a single position may commit at most 22% of equity as margin (collateral). You want to open a 6059 notional short on BTC. Is this compliant? If not, what is the maximum notional you may open? Return `compliant` (boolean) and `maxNotional`.

P&L leak: Excess leverage or an oversized single position → liquidation in a normal pullback.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "compliant": false, "maxNotional": 2882 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p2_compliance", "params": { "tol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2882confidence 0.9
Max margin = 22% of $3275 = $720.50; at 4x leverage that allows ~$2882 notional, so a $6059 short is non-compliant. Also, no new positions near a Fed decision per mandate.
⊢ maxNotional=2882 exp=2882 err=0.0%
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortcompliant falsemaxNotional 2882confidence 0.9
Max margin = 22% of $3275 = $720.50; at 4x leverage max notional = $2882, so the $6059 short exceeds the limit and is non-compliant.
⊢ maxNotional=2882 exp=2882 err=0.0%
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2882confidence 1
The notional of 6059 requires margin of $1514.75 at 4x leverage, exceeding the 22% equity limit of $720.5. Maximum compliant notional is 4 * 0.22 * 3275 = $2882.
⊢ maxNotional=2882 exp=2882 err=0.0%
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2882confidence 0.5
Margin required exceeds 22% equity limit. Max notional at 4x leverage and 22% margin is 2882.
⊢ maxNotional=2882 exp=2882 err=0.0%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 655confidence 1
The requested notional of 6059 violates the hard rule capping a single position's notional at 20% of equity ($655), and trading is prohibited during high-impact Fed decisions.
⊢ maxNotional=655 exp=2882 err=77.3%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 655confidence 1
The requested notional of 6059 violates the hard rule that a single position's notional must not exceed 20% of equity (655). Additionally, opening a position on a Fed-decision day violates the rule against trading around high-impact data releases.
⊢ maxNotional=655 exp=2882 err=77.3%
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2882confidence 1
Required margin at 4x on $6059 is $1514.75, which exceeds the 22% margin cap of $720.50 (22% of $3275). Maximum compliant notional is $720.50 * 4 = $2882.
⊢ maxNotional=2882 exp=2882 err=0.0%
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortcompliant falsemaxNotional 2882confidence 0.5
Max margin = 22% of $3275 = $720.50. At 4x leverage, max notional = $720.50 * 4 = $2882. Requested $6059 notional exceeds this, so non-compliant. Max notional = $2882.
⊢ maxNotional=2882 exp=2882 err=0.0%
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 655confidence 0.99
Not compliant: the requested $6059 notional exceeds the stricter mandate cap of 20% of $3275 equity. Maximum allowed notional is $655, which is below the house-rule collateral/leverage limit.
⊢ maxNotional=655 exp=2882 err=77.3%
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 655confidence 1
Not compliant: the requested $6059 notional exceeds the stricter mandate cap of 20% of $3275 equity, so the maximum notional I may open is $655. Volatile Fed-decision whipsaw also argues against opening a new leveraged short.
⊢ maxNotional=655 exp=2882 err=77.3%
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2882confidence 1
Desired notional $6059 exceeds the maximum allowed. With 22% of $3275 equity ($720.50) as max margin and 4x max leverage, the maximum notional is $720.50 × 4 = $2882.
⊢ maxNotional=2882 exp=2882 err=0.0%
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2882confidence 0
The 6059 notional short is non-compliant: at max 4x leverage it requires $1514.75 margin (46.3% of equity), breaching the 22% margin cap. Max allowable notional is 0.22*3275*4 = $2882. Additionally, standing flat on a volatile Fed-decision day per the 30-minute high-impact data blackout rule.
⊢ maxNotional=2882 exp=2882 err=0.0%
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2882confidence 0.9
6059 notional requires 1514.75 margin at 4x; exceeds 22% equity cap of 720.5 so max notional is 2882.
⊢ maxNotional=2882 exp=2882 err=0.0%
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2878confidence 0
⊢ maxNotional=2878 exp=2882 err=0.1%
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortcompliant falsemaxNotional 2882confidence 1
The proposed 6059 notional short exceeds the maximum allowed. The maximum notional is calculated as (equity * maxMarginPct) * maxLeverage = ($3275 * 0.22) * 4 = $2882.
⊢ maxNotional=2882 exp=2882 err=0.0%
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2882confidence 1
The desired 6059 notional exceeds the maximum allowed by house rules. At 22% margin and 4x leverage, the maximum notional is 22% of $3275 * 4 = $2882.
⊢ maxNotional=2882 exp=2882 err=0.0%
glm-5.1
bare
✗ fail
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 655confidence 1
Proposed notional violates the mandate's hard rule capping notional at 20% of equity ($655). Additionally, the Fed decision is a scheduled high-impact release, which prohibits new positions.
⊢ maxNotional=655 exp=2882 err=77.3%
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatcompliant falsemaxNotional 2882confidence 1
Max margin allowed is 22% of $3275 = $720.50; at 4x leverage the max notional is $720.50 × 4 = $2,882, well below the desired $6,059, so the trade is non-compliant.
⊢ maxNotional=2882 exp=2882 err=0.0%