← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

SOL bounces off a key support shelf as DeFi volume ticks higher. Given: long SOL — entry 73.77, stop 70.45, target 81.41. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.3012048192771135, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 73.77invalidation 70.45takeProfit 81.41rr 2.3confidence 0.65
Risk is 3.32 (73.77-70.45), reward is 7.64 (81.41-73.77), giving R:R of ~2.3 which meets the >=2 threshold; support bounce with rising DeFi volume supports the long.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 73.77invalidation 70.45takeProfit 81.41rr 2.3confidence 0.6
Risk is 3.32 (73.77-70.45), reward is 7.64 (81.41-73.77), giving R:R ≈ 2.3 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.9
Reward:risk is 2.30, exceeding the minimum 2.0 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3012confidence 0.5
Reward:risk is 2.30, exceeding the 2 minimum, so the trade meets the rule.
⊢ rr=2.3012 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 73.77invalidation 70.45takeProfit 81.41rr 2.301confidence 0.9
The calculated reward to risk ratio is 2.30, which satisfies the strict mandate of taking trades with an R:R of at least 2.
⊢ rr=2.301 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 73.77invalidation 70.45takeProfit 81.41rr 2.3012confidence 0.9
The reward to risk ratio is 2.30, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making the trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.3012 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 73.77invalidation 70.45takeProfit 81.41rr 2.3confidence 0.72
Reward 7.64 vs risk 3.32 gives R:R of 2.30, meeting the >=2 threshold, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 73.77invalidation 70.45takeProfit 81.41rr 2.3confidence 0.7
Reward 7.64 / risk 3.32 = 2.30, which meets the minimum 2:1 reward:risk threshold, so the trade is eligible.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.95
Reward is 7.64 and risk is 3.32, giving an R:R of about 2.30, which meets the minimum threshold of 2.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3012confidence 0.8
Reward:risk is about 2.30, above the minimum threshold of 2. The trade qualifies on R:R, so it can be taken.
⊢ rr=2.3012 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.5
Reward:risk is 7.64/3.32 ≈ 2.30, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade is accepted.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.2entry 73.77invalidation 70.45takeProfit 81.41leverage 1riskPct 0.9rr 2.3confidence 0.6
SOL bouncing off key support with rising DeFi volume; R:R of 2.30 exceeds the 2.0 minimum. Notional capped at 20% of equity with 1x leverage keeps risk under 1%.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.9
RR=7.64/3.32>2 so trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.65
RR=7.64/3.32>2 so trade qualifies; bounce + volume supports long.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 73.77invalidation 70.45takeProfit 81.41rr 2.3confidence 0.75
Reward:risk is 2.3:1 (reward 7.64, risk 3.32), meeting the minimum 2:1 threshold; the setup aligns with support bounce and rising DeFi volume, justifying a long entry.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 73.77invalidation 70.45takeProfit 81.41rr 2.29confidence 0.5
Reward:risk is 2.29:1 (target 7.64 points, stop 3.32 points), which exceeds the required 2:1 minimum.
⊢ rr=2.29 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.8
Reward:risk is 2.3 which exceeds the minimum threshold of 2, so the trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.5
Reward of 7.64 vs risk of 3.32 yields an R:R of 2.3, which exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true