← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

SOL is grinding sideways near 72.67 as traders await the next breakout. Given: account $3275, short SOL at 72.67, stop 76.01. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many SOL do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in SOL) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 12.256736526946096, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 12.26entry 72.67invalidation 76.01riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = $3.34, so size ≈ 12.26 SOL, risking exactly 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=12.26 (exp 12.2567, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 12.26entry 72.67invalidation 76.01riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Max risk 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance $3.34 per SOL gives ~12.26 SOL, risking exactly 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=12.26 (exp 12.2567, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 12.256737entry 72.67invalidation 76.01riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risk per SOL = 76.01 - 72.67 = 3.34. Max dollar risk = 3275 * 0.0125 = 40.9375. Size = 40.9375 / 3.34 ≈ 12.2567 SOL. Risk percent = 1.25%.
⊢ size=12.256737 (exp 12.2567, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 12.2567riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Max risk per trade is 1.25% of $3275 = $40.9375; risk per SOL = $3.34; thus size = $40.9375 / $3.34 ≈ 12.26 SOL, risking exactly 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=12.2567 (exp 12.2567, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 9.0133entry 72.67invalidation 76.01riskPct 0.9192confidence 1
Constrained by the hard rule of 20% maximum notional per position, the size is limited to 9.0133 SOL, resulting in a realized risk of 0.9192%, which complies with the 1% maximum risk rule.
⊢ size=9.0133 (exp 12.2567, err 26.5%), riskPct=0.9192
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 9.013riskPct 0.919confidence 0
SOL is grinding sideways with no clear edge, dictating a flat position. Theoretically, the 20% max notional hard rule limits the position to 9.013 SOL, resulting in a 0.919% risk.
⊢ size=9.013 (exp 12.2567, err 26.5%), riskPct=0.919
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 12.26entry 72.67invalidation 76.01riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Risk budget is $3275 × 1.25% = $40.94; stop distance is 76.01 − 72.67 = 3.34, so size ≈ 40.94 / 3.34 ≈ 12.26 SOL, which uses the full 1.25% risk allowance.
⊢ size=12.26 (exp 12.2567, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 12.26entry 72.67invalidation 76.01riskPct 1.25confidence 0.95
Risk budget = 1.25% × $3275 = $40.94. Stop distance = 76.01 − 72.67 = $3.34 per SOL. Size = 40.94 / 3.34 ≈ 12.26 SOL, putting exactly 1.25% of equity at risk. (Note: notional ≈ $891 is ~27% of equity, so the 20% notional cap from the mandate would actually constrain size to ~9.0 SOL; reporting the risk-rule math as asked.)
⊢ size=12.26 (exp 12.2567, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 9.01335riskPct 0.91922confidence 0.99
Size is capped by the 20% notional limit: $655 / 72.67 = 9.01335 SOL. With a $3.34 stop distance, actual risk is $30.10, or 0.91922% of the $3275 account.
⊢ size=9.01335 (exp 12.2567, err 26.5%), riskPct=0.91922
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 9.013348011559103riskPct 0.9191929178865244compliant trueconfidence 0.9
Using the stricter mandate limits, SOL size is capped by the 20% notional limit before the 1% risk cap: $655 / 72.67 = 9.0133 SOL. Actual risk is 9.0133 × (76.01 - 72.67) = $30.10, or 0.919% of the $3275 account.
⊢ size=9.013348011559103 (exp 12.2567, err 26.5%), riskPct=0.9191929178865244
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 12.2567entry 72.67invalidation 76.01riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0
Sizing at 1.25% risk ($40.94 / $3.34 stop distance) yields 12.26 SOL, but this violates the 1% max-risk hard rule and the 20% notional cap (notional would be ~27.2% of equity).
⊢ size=12.2567 (exp 12.2567, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 9.0133entry 72.67invalidation 76.01takeProfit 65.99leverage 1riskPct 0.919compliant truemaxNotional 655rr 2confidence 0.5
Position size is capped by the 20% max notional hard rule ($655), limiting the short to 9.013 SOL. This results in an actual risk of 0.919%, strictly complying with the 1% max risk hard rule and overriding the suggested 1.25%.
⊢ size=9.0133 (exp 12.2567, err 26.5%), riskPct=0.919
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 12.2567riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Risk budget 1.25% of 3275 gives 40.9375 USD; distance 3.34 yields size 12.2567 SOL at exactly 1.25% risk.
⊢ size=12.2567 (exp 12.2567, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 12.26entry 72.67invalidation 76.01riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Size set to risk exactly 1.25% on the 3.34 stop distance.
⊢ size=12.26 (exp 12.2567, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 12.11entry 72.67invalidation 76.01riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Calculating the position size based on the given risk tolerance and stop distance.
⊢ size=12.11 (exp 12.2567, err 1.2%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 11.94entry 72.67invalidation 76.01riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Calculating position size to risk exactly 1.25% of $3275 account on the short trade from 72.67 to 76.01 stop.
⊢ size=11.94 (exp 12.2567, err 2.6%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 12.26entry 72.67invalidation 76.01riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risking 1.25% of $3275 is $40.94; with a stop distance of $3.34, position size is 12.26 SOL, resulting in an actual risk of 1.25%.
⊢ size=12.26 (exp 12.2567, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 12.25entry 72.67invalidation 76.01riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per SOL = 76.01 - 72.67 = $3.34; max risk $ = 3275 × 0.0125 = $40.94; size = 40.94 / 3.34 ≈ 12.25 SOL; actual risk = 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=12.25 (exp 12.2567, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25