← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

ETH consolidates near 1794.4 as traders eye a breakout above resistance. Given: long ETH — entry 1794.4, stop 1731.6, target 1932.56. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.1999999999999913, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1794.4invalidation 1731.6takeProfit 1932.56rr 2.2confidence 0.6
Risk is 62.8 and reward is 138.16, giving R:R of 2.2 which meets the 2:1 minimum.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1794.4invalidation 1731.6takeProfit 1932.56rr 2.2confidence 0.6
Risk is 62.8 and reward is 138.16, giving R:R of 2.2 which meets the >=2 threshold, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.9
The trade's reward:risk is 2.2:1, exceeding the minimum of 2, so the setup is valid.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.7
The reward:risk ratio is 2.2, which exceeds the minimum of 2. Therefore the trade is permissible based on the R:R rule.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1794.4invalidation 1731.6takeProfit 1932.56rr 2.2confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.2, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1794.4invalidation 1731.6takeProfit 1932.56rr 2.2confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.2, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making the trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1794.4invalidation 1731.6takeProfit 1932.56rr 2.2confidence 0.7
Reward 138.16 / Risk 62.8 = 2.2, which meets the minimum 2:1 R:R threshold, so the trade is taken.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1794.4invalidation 1731.6takeProfit 1932.56rr 2.2confidence 0.7
Reward:risk = (1932.56-1794.4)/(1794.4-1731.6) = 138.16/62.8 = 2.2, which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold, so the trade is permissible.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.9
Reward is 138.16 and risk is 62.8, giving an R:R of 2.2, which meets the minimum 2.0 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.8
Reward is 138.16 and risk is 62.8, giving an R:R of 2.2. This meets the minimum 2:1 threshold, so the trade is acceptable on R:R.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.2entry 1794.4invalidation 1731.6takeProfit 1932.56leverage 1riskPct 0.7compliant truerr 2.2confidence 0.6
Reward-to-risk ratio is 2.2 (138.16 / 62.8), meeting the minimum 2.0 threshold. Position sized at 20% notional with 1x leverage keeps risk at 0.7% of equity, well within the 1% cap.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.6
Reward:risk is 138.16/62.8 ≈ 2.2, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade is acceptable on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.9
RR exactly 2.2 meets the >=2 threshold so the long is valid.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1794.4invalidation 1731.6takeProfit 1932.56rr 2.19confidence 0.75
Reward:risk is 2.19, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold. Entry near consolidation resistance suggests a breakout play with clear invalidation below support.
⊢ rr=2.19 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.17confidence 0
Although the reward:risk ratio is above the minimum threshold at 2.17, the scenario describes consolidation near resistance, implying a low-ADX, choppy environment with no clear edge. The no-edge gate requires standing flat.
⊢ rr=2.17 (exp 2.20), took=false canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.5
The reward:risk ratio is 2.2, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, so the trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.21confidence 0.6
Reward is 138.16 and risk is 62.8, yielding an R:R of 2.21 which exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold.
⊢ rr=2.21 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true