← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

BTC chops sideways near 65776 as traders await the next macro catalyst. Given: account $3850, short BTC at 65776, stop 68735.92. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many BTC do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in BTC) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.016258885375280422, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01627entry 65776invalidation 68735.92riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = $2959.92, so size = 48.13/2959.92 ≈ 0.01627 BTC, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.01627 (exp 0.0163, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01627entry 65776invalidation 68735.92riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Stop distance is 2959.92; max risk at 1.25% of $3850 is $48.125, giving size = 48.125/2959.92 ≈ 0.01627 BTC, risking the full 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.01627 (exp 0.0163, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01625828riskPct 1.25confidence 1
With account $3850, max risk 1.25% is $48.125. The stop distance is $2959.92 per BTC, so position size = 48.125 / 2959.92 ≈ 0.01625828 BTC, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.01625828 (exp 0.0163, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01625riskPct 1.2493confidence 0.9
Risk per BTC = 2959.92; max risk 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125; size = 0.01625 BTC to keep risk ≤ 1.25%; actual risk = 1.2493%.
⊢ size=0.01625 (exp 0.0163, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.2493
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.011706riskPct 0.9confidence 1
Market is chopping sideways with no clear edge, dictating a flat position. If executed, size is capped by the 20% max notional rule to 0.0117 BTC, risking 0.9% of equity.
⊢ size=0.011706 (exp 0.0163, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.0117riskPct 0.9confidence 1
Market is chopping sideways with no edge, dictating a flat stance. If traded, the 20% max notional rule strictly caps the size at 0.0117 BTC, resulting in a 0.9% risk, which overrides both the 1% hard risk limit and the 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=0.0117 (exp 0.0163, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01626entry 65776invalidation 68735.92riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per BTC = 68735.92 - 65776 = 2959.92. Max risk at 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125. Size = 48.125 / 2959.92 ≈ 0.01626 BTC, risking exactly 1.25% of equity. Note: resulting notional ≈ $1072 is ~27.8% of equity, which exceeds my 20% notional cap, so an additional constraint check is warranted before sizing up to this level.
⊢ size=0.01626 (exp 0.0163, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01626entry 65776invalidation 68735.92riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position sized to house-rule max risk: 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125; stop distance = 68735.92 - 65776 = $2959.92 per BTC, so size = 48.125 / 2959.92 ≈ 0.01626 BTC. Actual account risk = 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.01626 (exp 0.0163, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0117063975riskPct 0.9confidence 0.93
Position size is capped by the 20% notional limit: $770 / 65776 = 0.0117063975 BTC. With a 2959.92 stop distance, that risks $34.65, equal to 0.9% of the $3850 account.
⊢ size=0.0117063975 (exp 0.0163, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.013007108riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Using the stricter 1% mandate, maximum dollar risk is 38.5 and stop distance is 2959.92, so size is 38.5 / 2959.92 = 0.013007108 BTC. The stated chop/no-catalyst backdrop provides no edge, so no new trade is taken.
⊢ size=0.013007108 (exp 0.0163, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.011706entry 65776invalidation 68735.92riskPct 0.9confidence 0.8
Position size is capped by the hard rule that notional must not exceed 20% of equity ($770), resulting in 0.0117 BTC. This limits the actual risk to 0.9%, strictly adhering to the 1% max risk rule despite the suggested 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.011706 (exp 0.0163, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.011706riskPct 0.9confidence 0.5
Position size is constrained by the hard rule that notional must not exceed 20% of equity ($770 max notional), resulting in a size of ~0.0117 BTC. This yields an actual risk of 0.9%, which safely satisfies the 1% max risk hard rule and overrides the prompt's 1.25% suggestion.
⊢ size=0.011706 (exp 0.0163, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01626riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk 1.25% ($48.125) on 2959.92 $ stop distance yields 0.01626 BTC short size.
⊢ size=0.01626 (exp 0.0163, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 0.9
Sideways chop, no trend or catalyst edge; stand flat per rules.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 1
The question asks for a calculation on an existing short position, not to open a new trade. Therefore, the action is 'flat' as no new trade is being taken.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatentry 65776invalidation 68735.92riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Calculating risk based on given parameters: stop distance is 2959.92 points, which at 1.25% max risk of $3850 ($48.125) allows a position size of ~0.01627 BTC. Not taking a new trade as this is a calculation query for an existing short position.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01626riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position size is calculated by dividing the max risk amount ($3850 * 1.25% = $48.125) by the stop distance (68735.92 - 65776 = 2959.92), yielding 0.01626 BTC and an actual risk of 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.01626 (exp 0.0163, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01626entry 65776invalidation 68735.92riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Calculated size based on 1.25% max risk ($48.125) divided by stop distance ($2959.92).
⊢ size=0.01626 (exp 0.0163, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25