← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

BTC chops sideways near 66k as funding flips negative and traders eye a breakout. Given: account $7350, short BTC at 65908, stop 68379.55. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many BTC do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in BTC) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.03717302907082596, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.03717entry 65908invalidation 68379.55riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $7350 = $91.875; stop distance = 2471.55, so size = 91.875/2471.55 ≈ 0.03717 BTC, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.03717 (exp 0.0372, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.03717entry 65908invalidation 68379.55riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Max risk 1.25% of $7350 = $91.875; stop distance is 2471.55, so size = 91.875/2471.55 ≈ 0.03717 BTC, risking the full 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.03717 (exp 0.0372, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.03718riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Maximum size is 0.03718 BTC to risk exactly 1.25% of the $7,350 account with a stop at $68,379.55 from entry at $65,908.
⊢ size=0.03718 (exp 0.0372, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0372riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per BTC is 68379.55 - 65908 = 2471.55. Max risk allowed is 7350 * 0.0125 = 91.875. Size = 91.875 / 2471.55 ≈ 0.0372 BTC. Risk is exactly 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=0.0372 (exp 0.0372, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0223038sizePct 0.2entry 65908invalidation 68379.55riskPct 0.75confidence 1
Position size is capped by the 20% maximum notional rule, resulting in an actual risk of 0.75% which complies with the 1% hard limit.
⊢ size=0.0223038 (exp 0.0372, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0223sizePct 0.2entry 65908invalidation 68379.55takeProfit 60964.9leverage 1riskPct 0.75rr 2confidence 0.9
Position size is capped by the 20% maximum notional hard rule ($1470), limiting the size to 0.0223 BTC and keeping the realized risk at 0.75%, which strictly complies with the 1% maximum risk rule.
⊢ size=0.0223 (exp 0.0372, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0372entry 65908invalidation 68379.55riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Position size for the existing short: stop distance = 68379.55 - 65908 = 2471.55 USD/BTC; max risk = 0.0125 * 7350 = 91.875 USD; size = 91.875 / 2471.55 ≈ 0.0372 BTC, which risks exactly 1.25% of equity per the stated house rule. Note: a 'buy' would be a flat/reduce action since the position is short; the calculated 0.0372 BTC is the size already on (or to be added to) the short.
⊢ size=0.0372 (exp 0.0372, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0372entry 65908invalidation 68379.55riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0.5
Risk per BTC = 68379.55 − 65908 = $2471.55. Max dollar risk = 1.25% × $7350 = $91.875. Size = 91.875 / 2471.55 ≈ 0.0372 BTC. Note: notional ≈ 0.0372 × $65908 = $2452 (~33% of equity), which exceeds the 20% notional cap; at this size the trade is not compliant with mandate notional limits.
⊢ size=0.0372 (exp 0.0372, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.02230382riskPct 0.75confidence 0.95
The 1.25% house-rule size would exceed the 20% notional cap, so size is capped at 20% of equity: $1470 / 65908. At this size, the stop distance of $2471.55 risks about 0.75% of equity.
⊢ size=0.02230382 (exp 0.0372, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0223038riskPct 0.75confidence 0.95
Size is capped by the 20% max-notional rule: $1470 / $65908 = 0.0223038 BTC. With a $2471.55 stop distance, actual risk is $55.125, or 0.75% of the $7350 account.
⊢ size=0.0223038 (exp 0.0372, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0223038entry 65908invalidation 68379.55riskPct 0.75compliant truemaxNotional 1470confidence 0.5
Position size is capped by the 20% max notional hard rule ($1470), restricting the short to 0.0223 BTC. This results in an actual risk of 0.75%, ensuring full compliance with both the 1% max risk and 20% max notional limits despite the prompt's 1.25% suggestion.
⊢ size=0.0223038 (exp 0.0372, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.03717entry 65908invalidation 68379.55riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0
Position sized to 1.25% risk: $91.875 / (68379.55 - 65908) = 0.03717 BTC. Non-compliant: 1.25% risk exceeds the 1% hard-rule cap, and notional (~$2,450, 33.3% of equity) exceeds the 20% single-position limit.
⊢ size=0.03717 (exp 0.0372, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.03717riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk budget 91.875 USD divided by 2471.55 USD/BTC yields position size; riskPct matches house rule exactly.
⊢ size=0.03717 (exp 0.0372, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.03717riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk distance 2471.55, 1.25% of 7350 allows 91.875 USD risk, yielding size 0.03717 BTC at exactly 1.25% account risk.
⊢ size=0.03717 (exp 0.0372, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.002821riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Sizing the existing short to risk exactly 1.25% of the $7350 account per the house rule.
⊢ size=0.002821 (exp 0.0372, err 92.4%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.376riskPct 1.25confidence 0.4
The question asks for a size calculation based on the given parameters, which yields a size of 0.376 BTC and a risk of 1.25%. However, the market context is sideways chop with weak trend and unclear signal, so the correct action is to stand flat and not initiate this trade.
⊢ size=0.376 (exp 0.0372, err 911.5%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.037entry 65908invalidation 68379.55riskPct 1.244confidence 0.9
Max risk is $91.875 (1.25% of $7350). Stop distance is $2471.55. Sizing down to 0.037 BTC keeps risk at $91.45, which is 1.244% of the account, satisfying the house rule.
⊢ size=0.037 (exp 0.0372, err 0.5%), riskPct=1.244
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0entry 65908invalidation 68379.55riskPct 0confidence 0.2
No-edge gate triggered: BTC chops sideways with unclear breakout direction, so standing flat is the correct disciplined action; if forced to size, 20% notional cap limits size to 0.02227 BTC and actual risk to 0.75%.
⊢ size=0 (exp 0.0372, err 100.0%), riskPct=0