← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

ETH consolidates near 1827.6 as traders eye a breakout above weekly resistance. Given: long ETH — entry 1827.6, stop 1763.63, target 1971.53. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.2499609191808743, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1827.6invalidation 1763.63takeProfit 1971.53rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Risk is 63.97, reward is 143.93, giving R:R of 2.25 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1827.6invalidation 1763.63takeProfit 1971.53rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Risk 63.97, reward 143.93, R:R 2.25 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.23confidence 1
Reward: (1971.53-1827.6)/(1827.6-1763.63) = 143.93/63.97 ≈ 2.25:1. This meets the 2:1 minimum but a breakout trade near resistance with a tight 3.5% stop lacks confirmation; standing flat preserves capital until a confirmed breakout occurs.
⊢ rr=2.23 (exp 2.25), took=false canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
Reward:risk ratio is 2.25, exceeding the minimum 2.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1827.6invalidation 1763.63takeProfit 1971.53rr 2.25confidence 1
The calculated reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the strict mandate requirement of being greater than or equal to 2.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1827.6invalidation 1763.63takeProfit 1971.53rr 2.25confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.25, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making the trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1827.6invalidation 1763.63takeProfit 1971.53compliant truerr 2.25confidence 0.72
Reward:risk = (1971.53-1827.6)/(1827.6-1763.63) = 143.93/63.97 ≈ 2.25, which meets the >=2 threshold, so the trade is taken.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action longentry 1827.6invalidation 1763.63takeProfit 1971.53rr 2confidence 0.5
Reward:risk = (1971.53-1827.6)/(1827.6-1763.63) = 143.93/63.97 ≈ 2.25, which meets the >=2 threshold, so the trade is allowed on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.9
Reward is 143.93 and risk is 63.97, giving an R:R of about 2.25. This meets the minimum 2:1 requirement, so the trade is acceptable on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.7
Reward is 143.93 and risk is 63.97, giving an R:R of about 2.25, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.0667entry 1827.6invalidation 1763.63takeProfit 1971.53leverage 3riskPct 0.7rr 2.25confidence 0.6
R:R of 2.25 meets the minimum 2.0 threshold; position sized to 20% notional cap at 3x leverage keeps realized risk at 0.7% of equity, within the 1% limit.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1827.6invalidation 1763.63takeProfit 1971.53rr 2.25confidence 0.6
Reward (143.93) divided by risk (63.97) yields an R:R of 2.25, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1827.6invalidation 1763.63takeProfit 1971.53rr 2.25confidence 0.65
Reward:risk ratio of 2.25 exceeds the minimum 2:1 requirement, meeting the trade criteria.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.25confidence 0.3
R:R of 2.25 meets the minimum threshold, but the setup lacks sufficient context (trend strength, volatility, funding) to justify a position. No clear edge signals; standing flat.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=false canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.25confidence 0.5
Reward is 143.93 vs risk of 63.97, giving R:R of 2.25 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade is actionable.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1827.6invalidation 1763.63takeProfit 1971.53rr 2.25confidence 0.55
R:R is 143.93/63.97 ≈ 2.25, clearing the ≥2 threshold; trade is valid on that filter, though consolidation warrants modest conviction.
⊢ rr=2.25 (exp 2.25), took=true canTrade=true