← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

ETH is consolidating after a sharp rejection at resistance, and you want a disciplined entry. Given: account $3275, short ETH at 1818.8, stop 1900.65. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many ETH do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in ETH) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.500152718387293, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.5entry 1818.8invalidation 1900.65riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = 81.85, so size = 0.5 ETH, risking 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=0.5 (exp 0.5002, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.5001entry 1818.8invalidation 1900.65riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = 81.85, so size = 40.94/81.85 ≈ 0.50 ETH, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.5001 (exp 0.5002, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.5001527riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risk per ETH is $81.85. Max risk 1.25% of $3275 = $40.9375. Size = $40.9375 / $81.85 ≈ 0.5001527 ETH, giving an actual risk of exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.5001527 (exp 0.5002, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.5riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per unit is 81.85, max risk 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94, thus size 0.5 ETH, exactly 1.25% risk.
⊢ size=0.5 (exp 0.5002, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.3601sizePct 0.2entry 1818.8invalidation 1900.65takeProfit 1655.1leverage 1riskPct 0.9rr 2confidence 0.9
Constrained by the 20% max notional hard rule, the position size is capped at 0.3601 ETH, resulting in a 0.9% risk which strictly adheres to the 1% maximum risk limit.
⊢ size=0.3601 (exp 0.5002, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.36sizePct 0.2entry 1818.8invalidation 1900.65takeProfit 1655.1leverage 1riskPct 0.9rr 2confidence 0.9
Position size is constrained by the 20% max notional hard rule ($655) rather than the 1% risk limit, overriding the 1.25% house rule to yield 0.36 ETH and 0.9% risk.
⊢ size=0.36 (exp 0.5002, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.5001riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Stop distance = 1900.65 − 1818.8 = 81.85. Max risk = 1.25% × $3275 = $40.94. Size = 40.94 / 81.85 = 0.5001 ETH. Realized risk = 0.5001 × 81.85 / 3275 = 1.25% of equity. Note: this 1.25% house rule exceeds the mandate's 1% hard cap, so it would not be permitted under the standing rules.
⊢ size=0.5001 (exp 0.5002, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.5riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Short risk per unit = 1900.65 − 1818.8 = 81.85 USD. Max risk budget = 1.25% × 3275 = 40.94 USD. Size = 40.94 / 81.85 ≈ 0.5002, rounded down to 0.5 ETH. Actual risk = 0.5 × 81.85 = 40.93 USD ≈ 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=0.5 (exp 0.5002, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.36013riskPct 0.90004confidence 0.86
Using the stricter mandate, the 20% max notional cap is binding before the 1% risk cap. At 0.36013 ETH, stop distance 81.85 risks about 0.90004% of the $3275 account.
⊢ size=0.36013 (exp 0.5002, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.90004
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.4001221747riskPct 1confidence 0.5
Position size is capped by the stricter 1% risk mandate: $3275 × 1% = $32.75 risk, divided by the $81.85 stop distance. This gives 0.400122 ETH and exactly 1.0% of equity at risk.
⊢ size=0.4001221747 (exp 0.5002, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.5entry 1818.8invalidation 1900.65riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0
At 1.25% risk the math yields 0.5 ETH (risk $40.93, stop distance 81.85), but this violates the 1% max-risk hard rule and the 20% notional cap (0.5×1818.8=$909.40=27.8% of equity). Standing flat until size is reduced to comply.
⊢ size=0.5 (exp 0.5002, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.5entry 1818.8invalidation 1900.65riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Short ETH on rejection at resistance with a disciplined stop; position sized to risk 1.25% of equity ($40.94) over an 81.85-point stop distance, yielding 0.5 ETH.
⊢ size=0.5 (exp 0.5002, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.5riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk 1.25% ($40.94) on 81.85 $ distance yields 0.5 ETH short.
⊢ size=0.5 (exp 0.5002, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.5entry 1818.8invalidation 1900.65riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk 1.25% ($40.94) on 81.85$ stop distance yields 0.5 ETH short.
⊢ size=0.5 (exp 0.5002, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.5entry 1818.8invalidation 1900.65riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk management calculation: stop distance is $81.85. To risk 1.25% of $3275 ($40.94), size = 40.94 / 81.85 = 0.5 ETH. This puts 1.25% of equity at risk, which complies with the house rule.
⊢ size=0.5 (exp 0.5002, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.5entry 1818.8invalidation 1900.65riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Risk per ETH = 1900.65 - 1818.8 = 81.85. Max risk = 3275 * 0.0125 = 40.9375. Size = 40.9375 / 81.85 ≈ 0.500 ETH.
⊢ size=0.5 (exp 0.5002, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.5entry 1818.8invalidation 1900.65riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risking 1.25% of a $3275 account ($40.94) over an 81.85 stop distance yields a 0.5 ETH short position, with an actual risk of 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.5 (exp 0.5002, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.5entry 1818.8invalidation 1900.65riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position size derived from max risk: (3275 × 0.0125) / (1900.65 − 1818.8) ≈ 0.50 ETH; actual risk ≈ 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=0.5 (exp 0.5002, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25