← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

BTC chops sideways near 66627 as traders await the next macro catalyst. Given: account $3275, short BTC at 66627, stop 69625.22. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many BTC do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in BTC) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.013653934667902951, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01365entry 66627invalidation 69625.22riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Stop distance is 2998.22; risking 1.25% of $3275 ($40.94) gives ~0.01365 BTC short, exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.01365 (exp 0.0137, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01365entry 66627invalidation 69625.22riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = $2998.22, so size = 40.94/2998.22 ≈ 0.01365 BTC, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.01365 (exp 0.0137, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.013654riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Maximum allowable risk is 1.25% of $3275 = $40.9375. With stop distance $2998.22, position size = $40.9375 / $2998.22 ≈ 0.013654 BTC, risking exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.013654 (exp 0.0137, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.013658entry 66627invalidation 69625.22riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per unit: 69625.22 - 66627 = 2998.22. Max risk 1.25% of $3275 = $40.9375 => size = 40.9375 / 2998.22 ≈ 0.013658 BTC, actual risk = 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.013658 (exp 0.0137, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.00983entry 66627invalidation 69625.22riskPct 0.9confidence 1
Market is chopping sideways with no clear edge, dictating a flat position. If traded, the 20% notional limit caps size to 0.00983 BTC, yielding 0.9% risk.
⊢ size=0.00983 (exp 0.0137, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.00983entry 66627invalidation 69625.22riskPct 0.9confidence 1
BTC is chopping sideways with no clear edge, so the correct action is to stand flat. If traded, size must be capped at 0.00983 BTC to keep notional under the 20% limit ($655), resulting in a 0.9% risk.
⊢ size=0.00983 (exp 0.0137, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01365entry 66627invalidation 69625.22riskPct 0.0125confidence 0.95
Stop distance is 2998.22 (69625.22 - 66627). Max risk = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94. Size = 40.94 / 2998.22 ≈ 0.01365 BTC, which risks exactly 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=0.01365 (exp 0.0137, err 0.0%), riskPct=0.0125
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01365entry 66627invalidation 69625.22riskPct 1.25confidence 0.4
Stop distance = 69625.22 - 66627 = 2998.22. Max risk = 1.25% × $3275 = $40.94. Size = 40.94 / 2998.22 ≈ 0.01365 BTC, so the actual risk is 1.25% of equity by construction.
⊢ size=0.01365 (exp 0.0137, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.00983085riskPct 0.9compliant trueconfidence 0.99
The 1.25% house-risk size would exceed the 20% max-notional mandate, so size is capped at 20% of equity: $655 notional / $66627. With a 4.5% stop distance, actual account risk is 0.9%.
⊢ size=0.00983085 (exp 0.0137, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.00983085riskPct 0.9confidence 0.99
Sizing is capped by the 20% max notional rule: 20% of $3275 is $655, which equals 0.00983085 BTC at 66627. With a 2998.22 stop distance, this risks about $29.48, or 0.90% of equity.
⊢ size=0.00983085 (exp 0.0137, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.009831entry 66627invalidation 69625.22takeProfit 60630.56leverage 1riskPct 0.9compliant truemaxNotional 655rr 2confidence 0.5
Hard rules cap risk at 1% and notional at 20% of equity ($655). The notional limit restricts size to 0.009831 BTC, resulting in an actual risk of 0.9%, overriding the suggested 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.009831 (exp 0.0137, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.009831entry 66627invalidation 69625.22riskPct 0.9compliant truemaxNotional 655confidence 0.1
Standing flat due to choppy sideways action (no edge). For the calculation: size is constrained by the 20% max notional hard rule ($655), limiting the position to 0.009831 BTC and actual risk to 0.9%, overriding the suggested 1.25% to remain compliant.
⊢ size=0.009831 (exp 0.0137, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01365entry 66627invalidation 69625.22riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Position sized to 1.25% account risk using given stop distance.
⊢ size=0.01365 (exp 0.0137, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01365riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk $40.94 max (1.25% of $3275) on $2998.22/BTC stop distance yields 0.01365 BTC short.
⊢ size=0.01365 (exp 0.0137, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.0005968riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Position is already short; calculating required size to cap risk at 1.25% ($40.94) over a 2998.22 point stop distance yields ~0.000597 BTC, which is consistent with the risk limit.
⊢ size=0.0005968 (exp 0.0137, err 95.6%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 0.2
No clear trend or edge identified in choppy sideways market; standing flat is the disciplined action.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
glm-5.1
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.00983riskPct 0.9confidence 1
Position size is capped by the 20% max notional hard rule ($655), which is more restrictive than the 1.25% risk rule. This limits the size to 0.00983 BTC, resulting in an actual account risk of 0.9%.
⊢ size=0.00983 (exp 0.0137, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01365entry 66627invalidation 69625.22riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk $40.94 (1.25% of $3275) over stop distance of $2998.22 yields position size of ~0.01365 BTC; actual account risk is 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.01365 (exp 0.0137, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25