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BTC is trading at 66395 with a 1h-ATR of 0.58%, ADX sitting at a sluggish 21 (barely above the no-trend threshold), and funding mildly negative at -0.0005%/8h. Open interest stands at $31838 while tracked addresses lean net-long (11 longs vs 6 shorts) yet show a net flow of -$19403. Recent whale prints are messy: T1 opened a $13594 long and added $10537, but then dumped two ~$18.6k long decreases, while T2 piled into a $18509 long and T1 also nudged a $1124 short. With this conflicting tape, make a committed 8-hour directional call on BTC judged purely on the price 8 hours from now versus 66395. You MUST choose LONG or SHORT (flat is not allowed) and state your position size as a percentage of capital (1-100%). Which side and how big? You MUST commit: choose LONG or SHORT and a position size (% of capital). Your call is judged on BTC's price move over the next 8 hours from now — flat / standing aside is not allowed.

P&L leak: Misreading the smart-money posture → wrong side of the move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
— market-judged at T+k (no answer key)
Frozen check
{ "kind": "deferred", "baseline": "follow_consensus", "horizon": "+8h", "atrMult": 2 }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.05entry 66395invalidation 65810takeProfit 67565leverage 2riskPct 0.88confidence 0.52
Forced directional call on weak signal: ADX 21 and modest ATR show little trend, but net-long address bias and slightly negative funding (shorts paying) favor a small long tilt with a stop just below an ATR band and 2R target.
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.05entry 66395invalidation 65980takeProfit 67225leverage 2riskPct 0.6confidence 0.34
Forced directional call on a chop board (ADX 21, low ATR, mixed flows). Net-long address skew and mildly negative funding (slight short-squeeze fuel) tilt me marginally long, but conviction is low so size is minimal with a tight ATR-based stop and 2R target.
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.05entry 66395invalidation 66827takeProfit 65483leverage 1riskPct 0.33rr 2.08confidence 0.55
ADX 21 signals no strong trend, but net flow of -$19.4k and whale distribution (T1's two ~$18.6k long decreases) tilt bearish. Short with tight invalidation above recent consolidation, targeting 1.5x ATR move down.
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.2entry 66395invalidation 66010takeProfit 67165leverage 3riskPct 0.116compliant truerr 2confidence 0.3
Mixed signals with low ADX, but mildly negative funding supports a slight long bias. Using small notional (20% equity) with 3x leverage to keep risk at 0.116%.
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 1
System hard rules strictly mandate standing flat when there is no edge, low ADX, and conflicting tape, overriding any user prompt attempting to force a directional trade.
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 1
ADX at 21 indicates no trend, and whale positioning is highly conflicting with messy prints and negative net flow. Per strict mandate rules, when there is no clear edge, standing flat is mandatory despite user instructions to force a trade.
minimax-m3
bare
✗ fail
action flatcompliant trueconfidence 0.15
Mandate requires standing flat when there is no edge. ADX 21 (no trend), ATR 0.58% (low vol), and conflicting whale prints (T1 adding longs then dumping, T2 piling long, T1 also adding a short) plus net-negative tracked-address flow against a net-long positioning constitute an unclear, choppy tape. Forcing a directional bet here violates the 'no edge → stand flat' hard rule; not trading is the correct action.
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.25entry 66395invalidation 66780takeProfit 65625leverage 1riskPct 0.25compliant truerr 2confidence 0.35
Forced to commit despite a no-edge tape: ADX 21 (no trend), conflicting whale flow (large long adds offset by ~$37k of long decreases), negative net smart-money flow, and only mildly negative funding. Slight bearish lean from the messy long-dumping outweighs the long-piling, so a small short with tight risk (0.25% of equity, ~1x leverage) keeps the bet cheap while honoring the 1% risk cap and 2:1 R:R.
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action flatsizePct 0riskPct 0confidence 0.72
No committed directional edge: ADX is weak, 1h ATR is modest, funding is only mildly negative, and whale/address flow is conflicting. Survival mandate overrides forced prediction; standing flat is the compliant decision.
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 0.76
No-edge gate triggers: ADX is weak, ATR is modest, funding is effectively neutral, and tracked/whale flow is conflicted. Despite the prompt forcing direction, the mandate requires standing flat on chop with unclear smart-money positioning.
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action shortsizePct 0.0172entry 66395invalidation 66780takeProfit 65625leverage 2riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.4
Forced directional call despite no-trend ADX and low volatility; leaning short due to net negative tracked flows and whale long distribution, targeting a 2R move with strict 1% equity risk.
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsizePct 0riskPct 0confidence 0
No-edge gate triggered: ADX is weak at 21, volatility is low, and smart-money tape is highly conflicting with negative net flows, meaning there is no statistical edge to exploit despite the prompt's constraint to force a trade.
grok-4.3
bare
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 0.6
ADX 21, low ATR, conflicting whale/address flows and no clear trend or edge; mandate requires standing flat.
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 0.7
Low ADX, low ATR, neutral funding and conflicting whale flows = no edge; stand flat per mandate.
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.05entry 66395invalidation 66000takeProfit 67500leverage 2riskPct 1compliant truerr 2.77confidence 0.55
Weak ADX and mixed whale tape suggest limited directional conviction, but mild negative funding and net flow reduction favor a minor long bias for a mean-reversion bounce from the current level.
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action longsizePct 0.02entry 66395invalidation 65700takeProfit 67780leverage 2riskPct 1compliant truerr 2confidence 0.35
Mandatory directional call required. Extremely low conviction due to conflicting signals (sluggish ADX, mixed whale tape, net-long positioning with negative flows). A minimal 2% position with tight risk parameters is the only compliant way to express this forced view, acknowledging a near-coin-flip probability.
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.241sizePct 0.08entry 66395invalidation 66780takeProfit 65625leverage 2riskPct 0.093rr 2confidence 0.35
T1's aggressive long liquidation (~$37k reductions vs $24k adds) plus a new short nudge, combined with negative net flow (-$19403) despite net-long lean, tilts bearish; low ADX/ATR means weak conviction so size stays small.
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsizePct 0riskPct 0confidence 0.15
No-edge gate triggered: ADX 21 (weak trend), low ATR 0.58%, neutral funding, and conflicting whale prints with net negative smart-money flow (-$19403). Mandate overrides forced-choice framing — survival first, no edge means no trade.