← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

BTC is consolidating just below resistance as funding flips negative. Given: account $3850, short BTC at 66537, stop 69531.16. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many BTC do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in BTC) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.016072955353087323, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01608entry 66537invalidation 69531.16riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = 2994.16, so size = 48.13/2994.16 ≈ 0.01608 BTC, risking ~1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=0.01608 (exp 0.0161, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01607entry 66537invalidation 69531.16takeProfit 60548.68riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = $2994.16, so size = 48.13/2994.16 ≈ 0.01607 BTC, risking exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.01607 (exp 0.0161, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01607riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risk per BTC = 69531.16 - 66537 = 2994.16. Max risk = 1.25% of 3850 = 48.125. Size = 48.125 / 2994.16 ≈ 0.01607 BTC. Actual risk is exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.01607 (exp 0.0161, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01607riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Calculated max size for 1.25% risk.
⊢ size=0.01607 (exp 0.0161, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0115725riskPct 0.9confidence 1
The 1.25% house rule is overridden by the 1% hard rule. However, the 20% max notional rule ($770) is the true bottleneck, limiting the position size to 0.0115725 BTC and capping the actual risk at 0.9%.
⊢ size=0.0115725 (exp 0.0161, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.01157sizePct 0.2entry 66537invalidation 69531.16takeProfit 60548.84leverage 1riskPct 0.9maxNotional 770rr 2confidence 0.8
Although the house rule allows 1.25% risk, the hard mandate caps risk at 1% and notional at 20%. The 20% notional limit ($770) is the bottleneck, restricting size to 0.01157 BTC and actual risk to 0.9%.
⊢ size=0.01157 (exp 0.0161, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01607entry 66537invalidation 69531.16riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0.5
Risk-based sizing: 1.25% × $3850 = $48.125 risk; stop distance = $2994.16; size = 48.125/2994.16 ≈ 0.01607 BTC, giving exactly 1.25% account risk. However, notional (0.01607 × $66537 ≈ $1069) is ~27.8% of equity, violating the 20% single-position notional cap, so the trade is non-compliant despite meeting the risk rule.
⊢ size=0.01607 (exp 0.0161, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01607entry 66537invalidation 69531.16riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per BTC = 69531.16 - 66537 = 2994.16. Max risk $ = 1.25% × $3850 = $48.125. Size = 48.125 / 2994.16 ≈ 0.01607 BTC, which puts exactly 1.25% of equity at risk. Note: notional ≈ $1069 (~27.8% of equity) exceeds the 20% notional cap, so size should be capped at 0.01157 BTC (≈0.90% risk) to comply with the mandate.
⊢ size=0.01607 (exp 0.0161, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0115725riskPct 0.9confidence 0.87
Size is capped by the 20% max-notional rule: $770 notional at a $66537 entry equals 0.0115725 BTC. With a 4.5% stop distance, this risks 0.9% of equity, within the 1% mandate.
⊢ size=0.0115725 (exp 0.0161, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.01157251riskPct 0.9confidence 0.62
Position size is capped by the 20% max-notional rule before the risk limit: $770 notional at 66537 equals 0.01157251 BTC. With a 2994.16 stop distance, actual account risk is about 0.9%, staying within the 1% mandate cap despite the stated 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=0.01157251 (exp 0.0161, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.011573entry 66537invalidation 69531.16riskPct 0.9confidence 0.5
Hard rules strictly cap notional at 20% of equity ($770) and risk at 1%. The notional limit restricts size to 0.01157 BTC, resulting in an actual risk of 0.9%, overriding the 1.25% suggestion.
⊢ size=0.011573 (exp 0.0161, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.9
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01607entry 66537invalidation 69531.16riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0.35
Sized to 1.25% risk as specified: $48.125 / $2994.16 stop distance = 0.01607 BTC. Non-compliant: 1.25% exceeds the 1% hard-rule cap, and notional (~$1,069, 27.8% of equity) breaches the 20% max-notional rule; negative funding also cautions against fresh shorts.
⊢ size=0.01607 (exp 0.0161, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01607riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk budget 48.125 USD divided by 2994.16 USD/BTC stop distance yields size 0.01607 BTC at exactly 1.25% account risk.
⊢ size=0.01607 (exp 0.0161, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01607riskPct 1.25confidence 0
⊢ size=0.01607 (exp 0.0161, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortentry 66537invalidation 69531.16confidence 0.7
Funding flipping negative suggests a short squeeze risk is low, but the consolidation below resistance provides a potential short entry. However, the stop distance of $2994.16 relative to the $3850 account equity results in a risk that exceeds the 1.25% house rule, requiring careful sizing.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatentry 66537invalidation 69531.16confidence 0.45
Consolidating below resistance with negative funding suggests a potential breakdown, but ADX is likely low indicating weak trend; the hard rule of risk <= 1% per trade is being violated by the proposed 1.25% risk, so I stand flat.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
glm-5.1
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.01286entry 66537invalidation 69531.16riskPct 1confidence 0.8
Overrode the 1.25% house rule with the 1% hard risk rule. Size = (3850 * 0.01) / (69531.16 - 66537).
⊢ size=0.01286 (exp 0.0161, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01607riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position size calculated by dividing the 1.25% max risk amount ($48.125) by the stop distance ($2,994.16), resulting in 0.01607 BTC and an actual risk of 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.01607 (exp 0.0161, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25