← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

SOL bounces off support as Solana ETF speculation heats up. Given: long SOL — entry 74.82, stop 72.05, target 82.02. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.599277978339355, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 74.82invalidation 72.05takeProfit 82.02rr 2.6confidence 0.62
Risk is 2.77 (74.82-72.05), reward is 7.20 (82.02-74.82), giving R:R of ~2.6 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 74.82invalidation 72.05takeProfit 82.02rr 2.6confidence 0.62
Risk is 2.77 (74.82-72.05), reward is 7.20 (82.02-74.82), giving R:R of 2.6 which clears the 2.0 minimum, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.6confidence 1
Entry 74.82 - Stop 72.05 = 2.77 risk; Target 82.02 - Entry 74.82 = 7.20 reward => R:R = 7.20 / 2.77 ≈ 2.60, which exceeds the required 2:1.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.599confidence 0.5
Reward:risk is 2.60 (82.02 target vs 72.05 stop), exceeding the required 2.0. Trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.599 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 74.82invalidation 72.05takeProfit 82.02rr 2.6confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.6, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making the trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 74.82invalidation 72.05takeProfit 82.02rr 2.6confidence 0.9
The reward to risk ratio is 2.6, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, allowing the trade to be taken.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✗ fail
action flatentry 74.82invalidation 72.05takeProfit 82.02rr 1.99confidence 0.9
Reward:risk is (82.02-74.82)/(74.82-72.05) = 7.20/2.77 ≈ 2.60... recalc: 7.20/2.77 = 2.599. Actually 2.60 ≥ 2, so trade is valid. Taking long.
⊢ rr=1.99 (exp 2.60), took=false canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 74.82invalidation 72.05takeProfit 82.02rr 2.6confidence 0.7
Reward 7.20 vs risk 2.77 gives R:R ~2.6, which meets the >=2 threshold, so the trade is eligible.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.6confidence 0.99
Reward is 7.20 and risk is 2.77, giving an R:R of about 2.6. This meets the minimum 2:1 requirement, so the trade can be taken.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.6confidence 0.74
Reward is 7.20 and risk is 2.77, giving an R:R of about 2.6, which meets the minimum requirement of 2.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.6confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.6confidence 0.6
Reward:risk of ~2.60 exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold; SOL bouncing off support with ETF speculation as a catalyst provides a valid setup.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.6confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.6confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.58confidence 1
The reward-to-risk ratio is (82.02-74.82)/(74.82-72.05) = 7.20/2.77 ≈ 2.58, which meets the >=2 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.58 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.58confidence 0.6
The reward:risk is 2.58, meeting the minimum requirement, but the setup lacks clear trend confirmation and the catalyst (ETF speculation) is often noise. Stand flat until a stronger signal emerges.
⊢ rr=2.58 (exp 2.60), took=false canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.6confidence 0.8
The reward-to-risk ratio is approximately 2.6 (7.20 reward / 2.77 risk), which exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold, making the trade valid.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.6confidence 0.5
The reward:risk ratio is approximately 2.6:1 (7.20 / 2.77), which exceeds the minimum required 2:1 threshold, making the trade valid to take.
⊢ rr=2.6 (exp 2.60), took=true canTrade=true