← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

HYPE rips on a fresh staking integration as funding flips positive. Given: long HYPE — entry 67.62, stop 64.58, target 75.98. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.7499999999999942, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.62invalidation 64.58takeProfit 75.98rr 2.75confidence 0.7
Risk is 3.04 (67.62-64.58), reward is 8.36 (75.98-67.62), giving R:R of ~2.75 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.62invalidation 64.58takeProfit 75.98rr 2.75confidence 0.66
Risk is 3.04 (67.62-64.58), reward is 8.36 (75.98-67.62), giving R:R of 2.75 which clears the 2.0 minimum; staking catalyst plus positive funding support the long.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 1
R:R is 2.75, above the minimum 2, so trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.7
R:R is 2.75, which meets the minimum 2 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.62invalidation 64.58takeProfit 75.98rr 2.75confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.75, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making this a valid long setup.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.62invalidation 64.58takeProfit 75.98rr 2.75confidence 0.9
The reward to risk ratio is 2.75, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, allowing the long trade to be taken.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✗ fail
action longentry 67.62invalidation 64.58takeProfit 75.98rr 2.18confidence 0.72
Reward:risk = (75.98-67.62)/(67.62-64.58) = 8.36/3.04 ≈ 2.75, which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade is acceptable on R:R grounds. Catalyst (staking integration) and positive funding support a long bias, though size/leverage should still be sized to the 1% risk rule.
⊢ rr=2.18 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action longentry 67.62invalidation 64.58takeProfit 75.98rr 2.18confidence 0.7
Reward:risk = (75.98-67.62)/(67.62-64.58) = 8.36/3.04 ≈ 2.75, which exceeds the 2.0 minimum, so the trade is acceptable on R:R grounds. Catalyst (staking integration) and positive funding support directional bias, but sizing should remain modest given event-driven volatility.
⊢ rr=2.18 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.95
Reward is 8.36 and risk is 3.04, giving an R:R of 2.75. This meets the minimum requirement of 2, so the trade can be taken.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.9
Reward is 75.98 - 67.62 = 8.36 and risk is 67.62 - 64.58 = 3.04, giving R:R of 2.75. This meets the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.62invalidation 64.58takeProfit 75.98rr 2.75confidence 0.7
Reward:risk of 2.75 exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold; fresh staking integration catalyst and positive funding support the long bias.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.1entry 67.62invalidation 64.58takeProfit 75.98leverage 2riskPct 0.9rr 2.75confidence 0.65
Fresh staking integration is a genuine bullish catalyst and R:R of 2.75 clears the 2.0 minimum; positive funding is a mild headwind but the structural driver justifies a scaled long within risk limits.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.62invalidation 64.58takeProfit 75.98rr 2.74confidence 0.8
Reward-to-risk is (75.98 - 67.62) / (67.62 - 64.58) = 8.36 / 3.04 ≈ 2.74, which exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold; fresh staking integration catalyst and positive funding support the setup.
⊢ rr=2.74 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.62invalidation 64.58takeProfit 75.98rr 2.71confidence 0.65
Reward:risk is (75.98 - 67.62) / (67.62 - 64.58) = 8.36 / 3.04 ≈ 2.75, above the 2.0 threshold. Fresh catalyst (staking integration) with positive funding flip supports momentum edge.
⊢ rr=2.71 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.8
Reward:risk is 2.75 which exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade is valid.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.62invalidation 64.58takeProfit 75.98rr 2.75confidence 0.7
Reward-to-risk ratio is 2.75 which exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold, justifying a long entry on the momentum shift.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true