← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

ETH is coiling beneath a stubborn resistance shelf as funding flips slightly positive. Given: long ETH — entry 1818.8, stop 1755.14, target 1958.85. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.1999685830977107, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1818.8invalidation 1755.14takeProfit 1958.85rr 2.2confidence 0.6
Risk is 63.66 and reward is 140.05, giving R:R of 2.2 which meets the >=2 threshold, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1818.8invalidation 1755.14takeProfit 1958.85rr 2.2confidence 0.6
Risk is 63.66 and reward is 140.05, giving R:R ~2.2 which clears the 2.0 minimum, so the trade is takeable.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.9
The reward-to-risk ratio is 2.2, which meets the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2003confidence 1
Reward:risk is 140.05/63.66 = 2.20, exceeding the minimum of 2.
⊢ rr=2.2003 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1818.8invalidation 1755.14takeProfit 1958.85rr 2.2confidence 1
The calculated reward to risk ratio is 2.2, which satisfies the strict mandate requirement of being greater than or equal to 2.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1818.8invalidation 1755.14takeProfit 1958.85rr 2.2confidence 0.8
The reward-to-risk ratio is approximately 2.2, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, allowing the trade to be taken.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1818.8invalidation 1755.14takeProfit 1958.85rr 2.2confidence 0.7
Reward 140.05 / Risk 63.66 = 2.20, which meets the >=2 R:R threshold, so the trade is taken.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1818.8invalidation 1755.14takeProfit 1958.85rr 2.2confidence 0.62
Reward (140.05) / Risk (63.66) = 2.20, which clears the >=2.0 mandate, so the trade is technically permitted. However, funding is slightly positive (longs paying), price is coiling under resistance, and conviction is only moderate — size small or wait for a confirmed breakout.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.75
Reward is 140.05 versus risk of 63.66, giving an R:R of about 2.20, which meets the minimum threshold of 2.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.1999685834118754confidence 0.8
Reward:risk is approximately 2.20, which meets the minimum requirement of 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.1999685834118754 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.2entry 1818.8invalidation 1755.14takeProfit 1958.85leverage 1riskPct 0.7rr 2.2confidence 0.55
Reward-to-risk is 2.20 (140.05 / 63.66), meeting the >= 2 threshold. Position sized to the 20% notional cap, yielding ~0.7% equity risk; funding slightly positive and coiling beneath resistance offers a plausible breakout setup.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longsizePct 0.2entry 1818.8invalidation 1755.14takeProfit 1958.85leverage 1riskPct 0.7rr 2.2confidence 0.55
R:R of 2.2 meets the minimum 2.0 threshold; ETH coiling beneath resistance with mildly positive funding suggests a viable breakout setup, so the trade is accepted at reduced size to respect the 20% notional cap.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.9
RR=140.05/63.66=2.2 meets >=2 threshold
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.9
RR=140.05/63.66≈2.2 meets the >=2 threshold so the trade is accepted.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1818.8invalidation 1755.14takeProfit 1958.85rr 2.21confidence 0.7
Reward:risk ratio is 2.21, exceeding the 2.0 minimum. The setup with ETH coiling beneath resistance with slightly positive funding supports a long bias, so the trade is compliant and taken.
⊢ rr=2.21 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1818.8invalidation 1755.14takeProfit 1958.85rr 2.19confidence 0.5
The calculated reward-to-risk ratio is ~2.19, which satisfies the >=2 threshold. The trade setup is compliant.
⊢ rr=2.19 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.6
Risk is 63.66, reward is 140.05, giving R:R of ~2.2 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold, so the trade is actionable.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.2confidence 0.6
Reward-to-risk ratio is 2.20, which exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold, satisfying the hard rule for trade entry.
⊢ rr=2.2 (exp 2.20), took=true canTrade=true