← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

HYPE is bouncing off support after a sharp shakeout, and the order book looks thin. Given: account $3850, short HYPE at 67.62, stop 70.66. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many HYPE do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in HYPE) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 15.8305921052632, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.83entry 67.62invalidation 70.66riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = 70.66-67.62 = 3.04, so size = 48.13/3.04 ≈ 15.83 HYPE, risking the full 1.25%.
⊢ size=15.83 (exp 15.8306, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.83entry 67.62invalidation 70.66riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = 70.66-67.62 = 3.04, so size = 48.13/3.04 ≈ 15.83 HYPE, risking exactly 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=15.83 (exp 15.8306, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.83riskPct 1.25confidence 0.95
Risk per HYPE is 3.04 (70.66 - 67.62). Max risk 1.25% of $3850 is $48.125. Size = 48.125 / 3.04 ≈ 15.83 HYPE. Actual risk percent is exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=15.83 (exp 15.8306, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.83entry 67.62invalidation 70.66riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Short HYPE with risk limited to 1.25% of account. Risk per HYPE is stop - entry = 3.04, thus size = $48.125 / 3.04 ≈ 15.83 HYPE.
⊢ size=15.83 (exp 15.8306, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.387entry 67.62invalidation 70.66riskPct 0.899confidence 1
Although the prompt suggests a 1.25% risk rule, hard rules strictly cap risk at 1% and notional size at 20% of equity. The 20% notional limit ($770) is the stricter constraint here, limiting the position to 11.387 HYPE and actual risk to 0.899%.
⊢ size=11.387 (exp 15.8306, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.899
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 11.387entry 67.62invalidation 70.66riskPct 0.899confidence 1
Size is capped at 11.387 HYPE by the 20% max notional rule (0.899% risk), overriding the 1.25% house rule. However, shorting a bounce off support into a thin order book lacks edge, so the correct action is to stand flat.
⊢ size=11.387 (exp 15.8306, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.899
minimax-m3
bare
✗ fail
action flatriskPct 1.25compliant trueconfidence 0.4
Risk per unit = 70.66 - 67.62 = 3.04. Max risk $ = 3850 * 0.0125 = 48.125. Size = 48.125 / 3.04 ≈ 15.83 HYPE. Risk% = 1.25%. However, the setup (bounce off support after shakeout, thin book) is a counter-trend reversal with unclear follow-through and no defined reward target meeting R:R ≥ 2, so I stand flat rather than initiate a fresh long.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatriskPct 1.25confidence 0
Calculation only: risk per unit = 70.66 - 67.62 = 3.04. Max risk $ = 3850 * 0.0125 = 48.125. Size = 48.125 / 3.04 ≈ 15.83 HYPE. Risk% = 1.25%. No trade taken; sizing math only.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 12.664473684210526riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Using the stricter 1% mandate, max risk is $38.50 and stop distance is $3.04, so size is 12.6645 HYPE. Actual account risk is 1.0%.
⊢ size=12.664473684210526 (exp 15.8306, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.38716riskPct 0.8992confidence 0.6
Position size is capped by the 20% notional limit before the risk limit: $770 / 67.62 = 11.38716 HYPE. At a $3.04 stop distance, this risks about $34.62, or 0.8992% of the $3850 account.
⊢ size=11.38716 (exp 15.8306, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.8992
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.38entry 67.62invalidation 70.66takeProfit 61.54leverage 0.2riskPct 0.9compliant truemaxNotional 770rr 2confidence 0.6
Position size is capped by the 20% max notional hard rule ($770), which restricts size to 11.38 HYPE and reduces actual risk to 0.9%, correctly overriding both the 1% system limit and the user's non-compliant 1.25% request.
⊢ size=11.38 (exp 15.8306, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.9
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.83entry 67.62invalidation 70.66riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk of 1.25% on $3,850 equity is $48.125; divided by the $3.04 stop distance (70.66 - 67.62) gives 15.83 HYPE, placing exactly 1.25% of the account at risk.
⊢ size=15.83 (exp 15.8306, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.83riskPct 1.25confidence 0
⊢ size=15.83 (exp 15.8306, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.8355riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Calculated size to risk exactly 1.25% on the 3.04 stop distance.
⊢ size=15.8355 (exp 15.8306, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.85entry 67.62invalidation 70.66riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
HYPE bouncing off support with thin order book suggests a short opportunity; position sized to risk 1.25% of account ($48.125) based on stop distance.
⊢ size=15.85 (exp 15.8306, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 1.56riskPct 1.25confidence 0.3
The question is a pure calculation: risk = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125; stop distance = 70.66 - 67.62 = 3.04; size = 48.125 / 3.04 ≈ 1.58 HYPE (rounding yields 1.56). However, the market context (sharp shakeout, thin order book) suggests high volatility and potential for further downside, so confidence is low and standing flat is prudent.
⊢ size=1.56 (exp 15.8306, err 90.1%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.83entry 67.62invalidation 70.66riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risking 1.25% of a $3850 account ($48.125) with a $3.04 stop distance yields a position size of ~15.83 HYPE, resulting in an actual risk of 1.25%.
⊢ size=15.83 (exp 15.8306, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.83entry 67.62invalidation 70.66riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per unit is 3.04, max risk is 1.25% of $3850 ($48.125), yielding a size of 15.83 HYPE and an actual risk of 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=15.83 (exp 15.8306, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25