← FUNDSARENAC3 Whales Unwinding · system_event · live

ETH is trading at $1761 with a 1h-ATR of 0.89% signaling modest volatility, but ADX is screaming at 90 — an extreme trend-strength reading. Funding is barely positive at 0.0011%/8h and open interest sits at just $802,261. On the whale side, tracked addresses show 0 longs / 1 short with a net position of -$1314, driven by a fresh T3 SHORT increase of $1314. You must commit: will ETH's price 8 hours from now be ABOVE (LONG) or BELOW (SHORT) the current $1761? State your direction and a position size as a percentage of your capital (0% is not allowed). Your call is judged purely on ETH's price move over the next 8 hours. You MUST commit: choose LONG or SHORT and a position size (% of capital). Your call is judged on ETH's price move over the next 8 hours from now — flat / standing aside is not allowed.

P&L leak: Holding while smart money exits → caught in the reversal.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
— market-judged at T+k (no answer key)
Frozen check
{ "kind": "deferred", "baseline": "follow_consensus", "horizon": "+8h", "atrMult": 2 }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
◷ awaiting
action longsizePct 0.05entry 1761invalidation 1745.33takeProfit 1792.34leverage 2riskPct 0.5rr 2confidence 0.52
Extreme ADX signals a strong trend; near-flat funding and tiny OI mean the lone whale short is low-conviction noise, so I lean with momentum continuation to the upside. Small size given thin/ambiguous signal.
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
◷ awaiting
action longsizePct 0.1entry 1761invalidation 1745.33takeProfit 1792.34leverage 2riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.52
Extreme ADX signals a powerful trend; with neutral-positive funding and negligible whale short size ($1314 is noise), I lean with the dominant trend continuation to the upside, sized modestly given the coin-flip-ish 8h horizon.
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.01confidence 0.3
Whale net short and extreme ADX (90) suggest trend exhaustion; funding slightly positive supports a long-biased market that may reverse. Taking a small short bet.
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.05entry 1761invalidation 1796.22takeProfit 1690.56leverage 1riskPct 0.1compliant truerr 2confidence 0.2
ADX 90 indicates extreme trend strength, whale short position increase signals bearish bias, opting to short with a controlled 5% allocation and 2:1 reward-risk, despite modest volatility.
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1761invalidation 1792.35takeProfit 1698.3leverage 1riskPct 0.356compliant truemaxNotional 0.2rr 2confidence 0.8
Extreme ADX of 90 combined with fresh whale short positioning indicates a strong downward trend continuation. Sizing is capped at 20% notional to respect the maximum single position limit while maintaining a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1761invalidation 1785takeProfit 1713leverage 1riskPct 0.272compliant truemaxNotional 0.2rr 2confidence 0.8
ADX at 90 indicates an extreme trend, and recent smart-money positioning is entirely short. Sizing is capped at the 20% maximum notional limit to strictly adhere to risk constraints while targeting a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
minimax-m3
bare
— no answer
no answer
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.02entry 1761invalidation 1775takeProfit 1730leverage 2riskPct 0.03compliant truerr 2.21confidence 0.35
Forced commit, but signals are weak and conflicting. Only directional cue is bearish whale flow (fresh T3 short increase, 0 longs/1 short), while funding is flat-to-slightly-bullish, OI is thin ($802k), and ADX=90 with low ATR is suspect. Taking a small SHORT on the whale lean with tight invalidation; size kept minimal and well under all risk caps because conviction is low. R:R ~2.2 at 2x leverage, notional 4% of equity, risk ~0.03% of equity.
gpt-5.5
bare
◷ awaiting
action flatsize 0sizePct 0riskPct 0confidence 0.62
ADX shows extreme trend strength but not direction, while the whale short signal is tiny and open interest is too low to establish a reliable 8-hour edge. Without a defined invalidation and >=2 R:R setup, the mandate requires standing flat despite the request to commit.
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.05entry 1761invalidation 1780takeProfit 1723leverage 1riskPct 0.054rr 2confidence 0.56
ADX shows strong trend conditions and the only tracked whale flow is a fresh short, so I lean below over the next 8 hours. Funding and open interest are weak signals, so size is kept small with a defined 2:1 reward/risk.
qwen3.7-max
bare
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.066entry 1761invalidation 1784.4takeProfit 1714.2leverage 3riskPct 0.26rr 2confidence 0.6
ADX at 90 signals an extreme trend, and the fresh whale short aligns with a downside bias in a low-OI environment; notional is capped at 20% to satisfy hard risk limits given the tight ATR-based stop.
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.2entry 1761invalidation 1784.5takeProfit 1714leverage 1riskPct 0.27rr 2confidence 0.6
ADX at 90 indicates an extreme trend, and whale tracking shows a fresh short position, aligning with a bearish continuation. Position sized to respect the 20% max notional limit while maintaining a 2:1 R:R.
grok-4.3
bare
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.05entry 1761leverage 1confidence 0.55
Fresh whale T3 short increase and extreme ADX point to continuation lower over the next 8h.
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.3entry 1761invalidation 1778takeProfit 1732leverage 3riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.55
ADX 90 confirms strong trend; whale T3 short addition provides directional edge for 8h downside.
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.15entry 1761invalidation 1787.7takeProfit 1707.6leverage 2.5riskPct 1rr 2confidence 0.65
Extreme ADX at 90 signals powerful trend momentum; whale tracking shows net short positioning with a fresh $1314 short increase, aligning with downside bias. Modest volatility and positive funding provide favorable conditions for a short-term short position with defined risk.
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.005entry 1761invalidation 1805takeProfit 1670leverage 2riskPct 1rr 2.06confidence 0.55
Extreme ADX confirms strong downtrend, whale sentiment is bearish with fresh short, but modest volatility and forced commitment lower confidence.
glm-5.1
bare
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.04entry 1761invalidation 1777takeProfit 1729leverage 2riskPct 0.91rr 2confidence 0.52
ADX at 90 signals an extreme trend that is likely overextended and prone to exhaustion; the fresh T3 whale short increase aligns with a mean-reversion fade. Modest ATR and low OI suggest limited fuel for continuation, favoring a short with tight risk.
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
◷ awaiting
action shortsizePct 0.05entry 1761invalidation 1785takeProfit 1713leverage 2riskPct 0.14rr 2.04confidence 0.45
ADX at 90 is an extreme overextension signal often preceding mean-reversion or exhaustion; whale net-short with fresh T3 short add confirms bearish smart-money bias; neutral funding and thin OI mean no long conviction to sustain price. Modest size reflects uncertainty from extreme ADX reading.