← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

HYPE catches a bid as on-chain volume spikes ahead of a protocol upgrade. Given: long HYPE — entry 67.89, stop 64.83, target 76.31. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.7516339869281032, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.89invalidation 64.83takeProfit 76.31rr 2.75confidence 0.7
Risk is 3.06 (67.89-64.83), reward is 8.42 (76.31-67.89), giving R:R of ~2.75 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.89invalidation 64.83takeProfit 76.31rr 2.75confidence 0.62
Risk is 3.06 (67.89-64.83), reward is 8.42 (76.31-67.89), giving R:R of 2.75 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum; on-chain volume spike ahead of upgrade supports the long.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.9
Reward:risk is 2.75, which meets the minimum 2 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.89invalidation 64.83takeProfit 76.31rr 2.75confidence 0.5
Risk is 67.89 - 64.83 = 3.06. Reward is 76.31 - 67.89 = 8.42. R:R = 8.42 / 3.06 ≈ 2.75, which exceeds the minimum 2.0 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.89invalidation 64.83takeProfit 76.31rr 2.75confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.75, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making the trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.89invalidation 64.83takeProfit 76.31rr 2.75confidence 0.9
The reward to risk ratio is 2.75, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making the trade valid.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.89invalidation 64.83takeProfit 76.31compliant truerr 2.75confidence 0.72
Reward 8.42 vs risk 3.06 gives R:R of ~2.75, clearing the 2.0 minimum. Trade is acceptable on a reward:risk basis; size to 1% account risk at <=3x leverage.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.89invalidation 64.83takeProfit 76.31rr 2.75confidence 0.65
Reward (8.42) / Risk (3.06) = 2.75, which exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold, so the trade is permissible on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.751633986928104confidence 0.95
Reward is 8.42 versus risk of 3.06, giving an R:R of about 2.75, which exceeds the minimum threshold of 2.
⊢ rr=2.751633986928104 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.8
Reward is 8.42 versus risk of 3.06, giving RR 2.75, which meets the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.89invalidation 64.83takeProfit 76.31rr 2.75confidence 0.7
Reward:risk is 8.42/3.06 ≈ 2.75, which exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade qualifies on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.5
Reward:risk is 8.42/3.06 ≈ 2.75, which exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade qualifies on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 67.89invalidation 64.83takeProfit 76.31rr 2.76confidence 0.75
Reward:risk is (76.31-67.89)/(67.89-64.83) = 8.42/3.06 ≈ 2.76, which exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold, and the setup is supported by on-chain volume spikes and protocol upgrade catalyst.
⊢ rr=2.76 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatentry 67.89invalidation 64.83takeProfit 76.31rr 2.41confidence 0.5
R:R of 2.41 meets the minimum threshold, but confidence is low due to event-driven volatility from the protocol upgrade and lack of clear trend data, so I stand flat per the no-edge gate.
⊢ rr=2.41 (exp 2.75), took=false canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.75confidence 0.6
Reward:risk is 2.75 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold, so the trade is actionable.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 67.89invalidation 64.83takeProfit 76.31rr 2.75confidence 0.6
R:R is approximately 2.75:1 (reward 8.42 vs risk 3.06), exceeding the 2:1 minimum threshold, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.75 (exp 2.75), took=true canTrade=true