← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

ETH wobbles near 1827 as funding flips and shorts pile into the order book. Given: account $3450, short ETH at 1827.1, stop 1964.13. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many ETH do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in ETH) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.3147121068379182, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3148entry 1827.1invalidation 1964.13riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3450 = $43.125; stop distance = 137.03, so size = 43.125/137.03 ≈ 0.3148 ETH, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.3148 (exp 0.3147, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3148entry 1827.1invalidation 1964.13riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3450 = $43.13; stop distance = 137.03, so size = 43.13/137.03 ≈ 0.3148 ETH, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.3148 (exp 0.3147, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3147riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risk allowed: 1.25% of $3450 = $43.125. Risk per ETH (stop - entry) = $137.03. Size = $43.125 / $137.03 ≈ 0.3147 ETH. Actual risk = (0.3147 * 137.03) / 3450 = 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.3147 (exp 0.3147, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3147entry 1827.1invalidation 1964.13riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Calculated position size such that stop-loss distance (137.03) risks exactly 1.25% of $3450 equity.
⊢ size=0.3147 (exp 0.3147, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.2518riskPct 1confidence 1
The hard rule caps risk at 1% of equity, overriding the 1.25% house rule. With a $34.50 risk budget and a $137.03 stop distance, the maximum size is 0.2518 ETH.
⊢ size=0.2518 (exp 0.3147, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.2518sizePct 0.1333entry 1827.1invalidation 1964.13takeProfit 1553.04leverage 0.1333riskPct 1rr 2confidence 1
Hard rules dictate a maximum risk of 1% per trade, overriding the suggested 1.25%. Size is calculated strictly on the 1% risk limit and stop distance.
⊢ size=0.2518 (exp 0.3147, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3147sizePct 0.1667entry 1827.1invalidation 1964.13riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0.5
At 1.25% house rule: risk = 0.0125 × $3450 = $43.125; stop distance = 1964.13 − 1827.1 = 137.03; size = 43.125 / 137.03 ≈ 0.3147 ETH (notional ≈ $575.06, ~16.7% of equity). The 1.25% risk exceeds the 1% hard rule — a compliant sizing would be 0.2518 ETH at 1.0% risk.
⊢ size=0.3147 (exp 0.3147, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3147entry 1827.1invalidation 1964.13riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk budget = 1.25% × $3450 = $43.125. Stop distance = 1964.13 − 1827.1 = 137.03. Position size = 43.125 / 137.03 ≈ 0.3147 ETH, which places exactly 1.25% of account equity at risk.
⊢ size=0.3147 (exp 0.3147, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.25177riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Using the mandate cap of 1% risk, max dollar risk is $34.50; with a stop distance of $137.03, position size is 0.25177 ETH. The requested 1.25% house risk is not used because it exceeds the hard 1% limit.
⊢ size=0.25177 (exp 0.3147, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.25177riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Using the stricter mandate cap of 1% account risk: $3450 × 1% = $34.50. Stop distance is $137.03, so size is 34.50 / 137.03 = 0.25177 ETH, risking 1.0% of equity.
⊢ size=0.25177 (exp 0.3147, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.2518entry 1827.1invalidation 1964.13leverage 1riskPct 1confidence 0.5
Hard rule caps risk at 1% of equity ($34.50); stop distance of $137.03 per ETH yields a short size of 0.2518 ETH, keeping actual risk at 1.0%.
⊢ size=0.2518 (exp 0.3147, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.2518riskPct 1confidence 0.5
System hard rules strictly cap risk at 1% of equity, overriding the 1.25% suggestion. Risking $34.50 over a 137.03 stop distance results in a size of ~0.2518 ETH.
⊢ size=0.2518 (exp 0.3147, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3147riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Size set to risk exactly 1.25% of $3450 given 137.03 $ stop distance.
⊢ size=0.3147 (exp 0.3147, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.2518entry 1827.1invalidation 1964.13riskPct 1confidence 0.3
1% equity risk limit applied to short; no edge assessment performed as query is calculation-only
⊢ size=0.2518 (exp 0.3147, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.314entry 1827.1invalidation 1964.13riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Calculating position size to risk exactly 1.25% of the $3450 account on a short entry at 1827.1 with a stop at 1964.13.
⊢ size=0.314 (exp 0.3147, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.316entry 1827.1invalidation 1964.13riskPct 1.25confidence 0.75
Calculated position size based on 1.25% risk rule with account equity of $3450 and stop distance of $137.03.
⊢ size=0.316 (exp 0.3147, err 0.4%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3147riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Size of 0.3147 ETH is derived from 1.25% max risk ($43.125) divided by the stop distance ($137.03), resulting in an actual risk of 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=0.3147 (exp 0.3147, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.3147entry 1827.1invalidation 1964.13riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Max risk is $43.125 (1.25% of $3450). Stop distance is $137.03, yielding a size of 0.3147 ETH, which puts exactly 1.25% of the account at risk.
⊢ size=0.3147 (exp 0.3147, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25