← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

ETH coils beneath a key resistance shelf as funding flips positive on heavy spot inflows. Given: long ETH — entry 1788.8, stop 1708.3, target 1973.95. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.300000000000001, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1788.8invalidation 1708.3takeProfit 1973.95rr 2.3confidence 0.6
Risk is 80.5 (1788.8-1708.3), reward is 185.15 (1973.95-1788.8), giving rr 2.3 which clears the 2.0 minimum; bullish coil with positive funding and spot inflows supports the long.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1788.8invalidation 1708.3takeProfit 1973.95rr 2.3confidence 0.62
Risk 80.5, reward 185.15, R:R ~2.3 clears the 2.0 threshold; coil beneath resistance with positive funding and spot inflows supports a long bias.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 1
R:R = (1973.95-1788.8)/(1788.8-1708.3) = 2.30 > 2, satisfying the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.7
Trade has reward:risk 2.3, meeting the minimum 2:1 requirement; bullish structure with support below.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1788.8invalidation 1708.3takeProfit 1973.95rr 2.3confidence 1
The reward to risk ratio is 2.3, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2, making the trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1788.8invalidation 1708.3takeProfit 1973.95rr 2.3confidence 0.9
The reward to risk ratio is 2.3, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, allowing the trade to be taken.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1788.8invalidation 1708.3takeProfit 1973.95rr 2.3confidence 0.62
Reward 185.15 / Risk 80.5 = 2.30, which clears the 2.0 minimum R:R threshold, so the trade is eligible. Spot inflows support the long bias, though positive funding warrants caution on size.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1788.8invalidation 1708.3takeProfit 1973.95rr 2.3confidence 0.65
Reward:risk = (1973.95-1788.8)/(1788.8-1708.3) = 185.15/80.5 ≈ 2.30, which meets the >=2 minimum. Bullish bias from heavy spot inflows and coiled structure supports a long, though positive funding adds crowding risk, keeping confidence moderate.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.99
Reward is 185.15 and risk is 80.5, giving an R:R of 2.3. This meets the minimum requirement of 2, so the trade can be taken.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.7
Reward:risk is 2.3, which meets the minimum threshold of 2. The setup can be taken on the R:R criterion.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1788.8invalidation 1708.3takeProfit 1973.95rr 2.3confidence 0.65
Reward:risk is 185.15/80.5 = 2.3, which meets the minimum 2.0 threshold. ETH coiling under resistance with spot inflows supports a long bias.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.5
Reward:risk is 185.15/80.5 = 2.30, which meets the >= 2 threshold; spot inflows and coiling beneath resistance support a long bias.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1788.8invalidation 1708.3takeProfit 1973.95rr 2.29confidence 0.65
Reward:risk ratio is 2.29, which meets the minimum 2:1 requirement. Funding flip positive with heavy spot inflows suggests bullish momentum, making the long trade acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.29 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1788.8invalidation 1708.3takeProfit 1973.95rr 2.33confidence 0.75
Reward:risk ratio of 2.33 exceeds the minimum threshold of 2, confirming trade eligibility. The setup aligns with positive funding and heavy spot inflows, suggesting underlying buying pressure.
⊢ rr=2.33 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1788.8invalidation 1708.3takeProfit 1973.95rr 2.3confidence 0.7
Reward-to-risk ratio is 2.3, exceeding the minimum threshold of 2, making the trade compliant and actionable.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.3confidence 0.6
R:R is 185.15/80.5 = 2.3, exceeding the 2.0 minimum threshold, so the trade qualifies for a long entry.
⊢ rr=2.3 (exp 2.30), took=true canTrade=true