← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

SOL is consolidating after a sharp rally, and traders are eyeing a breakout. Given: account $3750, short SOL at 75.26, stop 78.65. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many SOL do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in SOL) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 13.827433628318582, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.83entry 75.26invalidation 78.65riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget is 1.25% of $3750 = $46.875; stop distance is $3.39, so size = 46.875/3.39 ≈ 13.83 SOL, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=13.83 (exp 13.8274, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.83entry 75.26invalidation 78.65riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3750 = $46.875; stop distance = 78.65-75.26 = $3.39, so size = 46.875/3.39 ≈ 13.83 SOL, risking the full 1.25%.
⊢ size=13.83 (exp 13.8274, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.8riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Risk per SOL is 78.65 - 75.26 = 3.39. Max risk is 1.25% of $3750 = $46.875. Size = 46.875 / 3.39 ≈ 13.82 SOL. Risk percent is exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=13.8 (exp 13.8274, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.82riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Max risk is 1.25% of $3750 = $46.875. Entry at 75.26, stop at 78.65 gives a per-SOL risk of 3.39. Size = 46.875 / 3.39 = 13.82 SOL. This uses exactly the max allowed risk per house rule.
⊢ size=13.82 (exp 13.8274, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 9.965453sizePct 0.2entry 75.26invalidation 78.65riskPct 0.900877confidence 1
Although the prompt suggests a 1.25% risk, hard rules cap risk at 1% and notional at 20% of equity. The 20% notional limit ($750) is the active constraint, limiting size to 9.965 SOL and realized risk to 0.90%.
⊢ size=9.965453 (exp 13.8274, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.900877
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 9.965sizePct 0.2entry 75.26invalidation 78.65leverage 1riskPct 0.9maxNotional 750confidence 1
Position size is constrained by the hard rule of 20% maximum notional per position ($750), which overrides the 1% risk limit and results in an actual risk of 0.90%.
⊢ size=9.965 (exp 13.8274, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.83entry 75.26invalidation 78.65riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% × $3750 = $46.875. Stop distance = 78.65 − 75.26 = $3.39. Size = 46.875 / 3.39 ≈ 13.83 SOL, putting exactly 1.25% of equity at risk. However, notional = 13.83 × 75.26 ≈ $1041, which is ~27.8% of equity and breaches the 20% max-notional rule; to stay compliant, size should be capped at ~9.97 SOL (≈0.90% actual risk).
⊢ size=13.83 (exp 13.8274, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 1.38entry 75.26invalidation 78.65riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per SOL = 78.65 - 75.26 = 3.39. Max risk $ = 3750 * 0.0125 = 46.875. Size = 46.875 / 3.39 ≈ 13.83 SOL. Wait — that's notional 13.83 * 75.26 ≈ $1040, which is ~27.7% of equity, exceeding the 20% notional cap. Recompute under 20% notional cap: max notional = 0.20 * 3750 = $750, so max size = 750 / 75.26 ≈ 9.97 SOL. Risk at that size = 9.97 * 3.39 ≈ $33.79, which is 0.90% of equity. Reporting size = 9.97 SOL and riskPct = 0.90% to satisfy both the 1.25% risk cap and the 20% notional cap.
⊢ size=1.38 (exp 13.8274, err 90.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.0619riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Stop distance is 3.39 USDT; applying the stricter 1% account risk cap gives $37.50 max risk, so size is 37.50 / 3.39 = 11.0619 SOL. This risks 1.0% of the account, below the stated 1.25% house limit.
⊢ size=11.0619 (exp 13.8274, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 9.9655riskPct 0.9009confidence 0.8
Although the stated house cap is 1.25%, the stricter mandate caps risk at 1% and notional at 20% of equity. The 20% notional cap binds: $750 / 75.26 = 9.9655 SOL, risking about 0.9009% of equity.
⊢ size=9.9655 (exp 13.8274, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9009
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.83entry 75.26invalidation 78.65riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position sized to 1.25% risk per house rule: ($3750 × 0.0125) / (78.65 − 75.26) = $46.875 / $3.39 ≈ 13.83 SOL. Actual risk is 1.25% of equity; note this exceeds the mandate's 1% hard cap.
⊢ size=13.83 (exp 13.8274, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.06entry 75.26invalidation 78.65riskPct 1compliant trueconfidence 0.5
Hard rules strictly cap risk at 1% of equity, overriding the suggested 1.25% house rule, yielding a maximum size of 11.06 SOL to remain compliant.
⊢ size=11.06 (exp 13.8274, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.81riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk 1.25% ($46.875) on 3.39 stop distance yields 13.81 SOL short.
⊢ size=13.81 (exp 13.8274, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.83entry 75.26invalidation 78.65riskPct 1.25confidence 0
⊢ size=13.83 (exp 13.8274, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.87entry 75.26invalidation 78.65riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Calculated size based on house rule of 1.25% risk on a short entry at 75.26 with a stop at 78.65.
⊢ size=13.87 (exp 13.8274, err 0.3%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 14.32riskPct 1.25confidence 0
The question is a pure risk and position-sizing calculation based on the provided parameters, not a trade signal. Calculated size is 14.32 SOL to risk 1.25% of equity on the given short trade.
⊢ size=14.32 (exp 13.8274, err 3.6%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.83entry 75.26invalidation 78.65riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risking 1.25% of $3750 is $46.875. Stop distance is $3.39 per SOL. Size is 46.875 / 3.39 = 13.83 SOL, risking exactly 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=13.83 (exp 13.8274, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.8271entry 75.26invalidation 78.65riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Calculated size based on 1.25% house rule risk.
⊢ size=13.8271 (exp 13.8274, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25