← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

SOL chops sideways as Solana network activity ticks up ahead of a key DeFi unlock. Given: account $3850, short SOL at 75.6, stop 79. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many SOL do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in SOL) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 14.15441176470586, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.15entry 75.6invalidation 79riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = $3.40, so size = 48.13/3.40 ≈ 14.15 SOL, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=14.15 (exp 14.1544, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.15entry 75.6invalidation 79riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = 3.4; size = 48.13/3.4 ≈ 14.15 SOL, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=14.15 (exp 14.1544, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.15riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Short SOL at 75.6, stop at 79 gives loss per SOL 3.4. Max risk 1.25% of $3850 is $48.125, so size = 48.125/3.4 ≈ 14.15 SOL. RiskPct exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=14.15 (exp 14.1544, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.1544riskPct 1.25compliant trueconfidence 0.5
Max risk $48.125 (1.25% of $3850) with stop distance $3.4 gives size 14.1544 SOL. Actual risk is exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=14.1544 (exp 14.1544, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 10.185riskPct 0.899confidence 1
Sideways chop dictates standing flat. Theoretically, the 20% notional limit restricts the maximum size to 10.185 SOL, resulting in a 0.899% risk, which overrides the 1.25% house rule to comply with the strict 1% hard limit.
⊢ size=10.185 (exp 14.1544, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.899
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.185sizePct 0.2entry 75.6invalidation 79leverage 1riskPct 0.899confidence 1
Although the house rule allows 1.25% risk, the hard rule caps risk at 1%. However, the position size is ultimately restricted by the hard rule that a single position's notional must not exceed 20% of equity ($770), resulting in 10.185 SOL and an actual risk of 0.899%.
⊢ size=10.185 (exp 14.1544, err 28.0%), riskPct=0.899
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.15entry 75.6invalidation 79leverage 1riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Max risk $ = 0.0125 × $3850 = $48.125. Stop distance = 79 − 75.6 = $3.40 per SOL. Size = 48.125 / 3.40 ≈ 14.15 SOL. Risk as % of equity = 1.25% by construction (note: notional ≈ $1,070 is ~27.8% of equity, so this sizing would breach a 20% notional cap if applied).
⊢ size=14.15 (exp 14.1544, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.27entry 75.6invalidation 79riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per SOL = 79 - 75.6 = 3.4. Max risk $ = 3850 * 0.0125 = 48.125. Size = 48.125 / 3.4 ≈ 14.16 SOL. At risk = 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=14.27 (exp 14.1544, err 0.8%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.3235294118riskPct 1confidence 0.98
Using the stricter 1% mandate risk cap, max dollar risk is 3850 * 0.01 = 38.5. Stop distance is 79 - 75.6 = 3.4, so position size is 38.5 / 3.4 = 11.3235 SOL.
⊢ size=11.3235294118 (exp 14.1544, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.3235294118riskPct 1confidence 0.9
Using the stricter 1% mandate over the 1.25% house rule: max risk is $38.50 and stop distance is $3.40, so size is 38.50 / 3.40 = 11.3235 SOL.
⊢ size=11.3235294118 (exp 14.1544, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.15riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget at 1.25% of $3,850 is $48.125; divided by the $3.4 stop distance (79 - 75.6) yields 14.15 SOL. Actual risk is 1.25% of equity, though this exceeds the 1% hard-rule cap and the position's notional (~$1,070) breaches the 20% notional limit.
⊢ size=14.15 (exp 14.1544, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.18entry 75.6invalidation 79riskPct 0.899compliant truemaxNotional 770confidence 0.5
Hard rules cap notional at 20% of equity ($770), limiting size to 10.18 SOL. This results in an actual risk of 0.899%, strictly adhering to the 1% max risk and 20% max notional limits over the suggested 1.25%.
⊢ size=10.18 (exp 14.1544, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.899
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.154411764705882riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk $48.125 at 1.25% allows 14.154 SOL short given $3.4 stop distance.
⊢ size=14.154411764705882 (exp 14.1544, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.1544117647riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Risk exactly 1.25% ($48.125) with 3.4$ distance implies 14.154 SOL short.
⊢ size=14.1544117647 (exp 14.1544, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.99riskPct 1.25confidence 0.85
Calculated position size to meet the 1.25% risk limit with a stop at 79 on a short from 75.6, resulting in ~14 SOL.
⊢ size=13.99 (exp 14.1544, err 1.2%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 15.86entry 75.6invalidation 79riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Calculated position size to exactly match the 1.25% risk rule: ($3850 * 0.0125) / ($79 - $75.6) = 15.86 SOL short.
⊢ size=15.86 (exp 14.1544, err 12.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.1544riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Max risk is 1.25% of $3850 ($48.125). Stop distance is $3.40. Size is $48.125 / $3.40 = 14.1544 SOL, risking exactly 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=14.1544 (exp 14.1544, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 14.15entry 75.6invalidation 79riskPct 1.25confidence 0.1
Size is 14.15 SOL calculated from 1.25% max risk ($48.125) divided by the stop distance ($3.4); actual risk is 1.25% of equity, though the choppy context means edge is weak.
⊢ size=14.15 (exp 14.1544, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25