← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

BTC consolidates near its recent highs as funding rates flip negative. Given: account $3850, short BTC at 66362, stop 68850.58. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many BTC do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in BTC) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.01933833752581792, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01934entry 66362invalidation 68850.58riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = $2488.58; size = 48.13/2488.58 ≈ 0.01934 BTC, risking the full 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.01934 (exp 0.0193, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01934entry 66362invalidation 68850.58riskPct 1.25confidence 0.55
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = 2488.58; size = 48.13/2488.58 ≈ 0.01934 BTC, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.01934 (exp 0.0193, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01934riskPct 1.25confidence 0.99
Risk per BTC = 68850.58 - 66362 = 2488.58. 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125. Size = 48.125 / 2488.58 ≈ 0.01934 BTC. Actual risk is exactly 1.25% of account if full allowance used.
⊢ size=0.01934 (exp 0.0193, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.019338entry 66362invalidation 68850.58riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Sizing the short to risk exactly 1.25% of $3850 account with a stop distance of $2488.58 gives 0.019338 BTC.
⊢ size=0.019338 (exp 0.0193, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.011603entry 66362invalidation 68850.58riskPct 0.75confidence 1
Although the 1% risk limit allows for a larger size, the hard rule capping a single position's notional at 20% of equity ($770) restricts the size to 0.011603 BTC, resulting in an actual risk of 0.75%.
⊢ size=0.011603 (exp 0.0193, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0116sizePct 0.2entry 66362invalidation 68850.58takeProfit 61384.84leverage 1riskPct 0.75rr 2confidence 0.9
Position size is capped by the hard rule limiting a single position's notional to 20% of equity ($770), overriding the 1.25% risk allowance and resulting in a 0.75% realized risk.
⊢ size=0.0116 (exp 0.0193, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01934riskPct 1.25confidence 1
Stop distance = 68850.58 - 66362 = 2488.58 USD per BTC. Max risk = 1.25% × $3850 = $48.125. Size = 48.125 / 2488.58 ≈ 0.01934 BTC, which risks exactly 1.25% of equity. Note: notional ≈ $1283 (~33% of equity) exceeds the 20% notional cap, so the binding constraint at this stop would actually be a smaller size (~0.0116 BTC, ~0.75% risk).
⊢ size=0.01934 (exp 0.0193, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01934entry 66362invalidation 68850.58riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per BTC = 68850.58 − 66362 = 2488.58. Max risk = 1.25% × $3850 = $48.125. Size = 48.125 / 2488.58 ≈ 0.01934 BTC, which puts exactly 1.25% of equity at risk by construction.
⊢ size=0.01934 (exp 0.0193, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.01547067riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Using the stricter 1% mandate, max risk is $38.50; stop distance is $2,488.58, so position size is 0.01547067 BTC. This risks exactly 1.0% of the $3,850 account.
⊢ size=0.01547067 (exp 0.0193, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.011603riskPct 0.75confidence 0.9
Size is capped by the stricter mandate limits: max 20% notional of $3850 is $770, giving 0.011603 BTC at 66362. With a 2488.58 stop distance, actual risk is about $28.88, or 0.75% of equity.
⊢ size=0.011603 (exp 0.0193, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.01547entry 66362invalidation 68850.58riskPct 1confidence 0.6
Hard rule caps risk at 1% of equity ($38.50), overriding the 1.25% house rule. Shorting 0.01547 BTC risks exactly 1% given the 2488.58 stop distance.
⊢ size=0.01547 (exp 0.0193, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.015471entry 66362invalidation 68850.58riskPct 1compliant trueconfidence 0.5
Hard rules strictly cap risk at 1% ($38.50), overriding the 1.25% house rule. Size is $38.50 / 2488.58 stop distance.
⊢ size=0.015471 (exp 0.0193, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01934riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Size to 1.25% account risk on given stop distance.
⊢ size=0.01934 (exp 0.0193, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01934riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Size BTC short to risk exactly 1.25% ($48.125) with stop 2488.58 away.
⊢ size=0.01934 (exp 0.0193, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortentry 66362invalidation 68850.58confidence 0.7
Funding rates have flipped negative, suggesting the market is net short and may squeeze higher, but the consolidation near highs with a defined stop allows for a risk-controlled short entry.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0riskPct 1.25confidence 0
House rule risk cap is 1.25%; actual risk is 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=0 (exp 0.0193, err 100.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.01934riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Size is calculated as max risk ($48.125) divided by stop distance ($2488.58), yielding 0.01934 BTC; actual risk equals the house rule limit of 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.01934 (exp 0.0193, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0116entry 66362invalidation 68850.58riskPct 0.75confidence 0.5
Sized to the 20% max notional rule ($770), which is the binding constraint over the 1.25% risk rule, resulting in 0.0116 BTC and 0.75% actual risk.
⊢ size=0.0116 (exp 0.0193, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75