← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

BTC chops sideways near 66k as funding flips negative into the weekend. Given: account $3275, short BTC at 66174, stop 71137.05. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many BTC do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in BTC) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.008248456090508855, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.00825entry 66174invalidation 71137.05riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Stop distance is 4963.05; risking 1.25% of $3275 ($40.94) gives ~0.00825 BTC, exactly 1.25% of account at risk.
⊢ size=0.00825 (exp 0.0082, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.00824899entry 66174invalidation 71137.05riskPct 1.25confidence 0.4
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = $4963.05; size = 40.94/4963.05 = 0.00825 BTC, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=0.00824899 (exp 0.0082, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0082485riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
⊢ size=0.0082485 (exp 0.0082, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.00824886riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Max risk 1.25% of $3275 = $40.9375. Risk per BTC = $4963.05. Position size = $40.9375 / $4963.05 ≈ 0.00824886 BTC, exactly respecting the 1.25% risk limit.
⊢ size=0.00824886 (exp 0.0082, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.006598entry 66174invalidation 71137.05riskPct 1confidence 1
BTC is chopping sideways with no clear edge, dictating a flat position. If traded, the 1% hard rule overrides the 1.25% house rule, limiting risk to $32.75 and size to 0.006598 BTC.
⊢ size=0.006598 (exp 0.0082, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0entry 66174invalidation 71137.05riskPct 0compliant falseconfidence 1
Market is chopping sideways with no edge, so I stand flat. If calculated, size is capped at 0.006598 BTC to strictly enforce the 1% max
⊢ size=0 (exp 0.0082, err 100.0%), riskPct=0
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.00825riskPct 1.25compliant trueconfidence 1
Stop distance = 71137.05 - 66174 = 4963.05 USD/BTC. Max risk = 1.25% × $3275 = $40.94. Size = 40.94 / 4963.05 ≈ 0.00825 BTC, putting exactly 1.25% of equity at risk. Notional ≈ $546 (16.7% of equity) — well inside the 20% concentration cap and 3x leverage ceiling, so the trade is compliant.
⊢ size=0.00825 (exp 0.0082, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.00825entry 66174invalidation 71137.05riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position sized to the 1.25% house risk cap: risk $ = 3275 * 0.0125 = $40.94; stop distance = 71137.05 - 66174 = 4963.05 per BTC; size = 40.94 / 4963.05 ≈ 0.00825 BTC. Notional ≈ $546 (16.7% of equity, well under the 20% cap), so 1.25% of account is actually at risk.
⊢ size=0.00825 (exp 0.0082, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.006598765riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Sized to the stricter 1% mandate risk cap: $3275 × 1% = $32.75 risk, with a stop distance of $4963.05, giving 0.006598765 BTC. Actual account risk is 1.0%.
⊢ size=0.006598765 (exp 0.0082, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.00659876entry 66174invalidation 71137.05riskPct 1compliant trueconfidence 0.2
Risk is capped at the stricter 1% mandate despite the 1.25% house rule: $32.75 risk divided by $4,963.05 stop distance gives 0.00659876 BTC. Market is described as choppy, so this is a sizing calculation only, not a fresh trade signal.
⊢ size=0.00659876 (exp 0.0082, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0066entry 66174invalidation 71137.05riskPct 1confidence 0.5
Stop distance is 4963.05 USD; 1% of 3275 equity is 32.75 USD, yielding 32.75/4963.05 = 0.0066 BTC. Hard rule caps risk at 1%, overriding the stated 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=0.0066 (exp 0.0082, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.00825entry 66174invalidation 71137.05riskPct 1.25confidence 0.45
Position sized to risk exactly 1.25% of $3,275 equity ($40.94) over a 4,963.05-point stop, yielding ~0.00825 BTC; sideways chop and negative funding limit conviction despite the short setup.
⊢ size=0.00825 (exp 0.0082, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.00825riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Position sized to 1.25% account risk given stop distance of 4963.05.
⊢ size=0.00825 (exp 0.0082, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.00825riskPct 1.25confidence 0
⊢ size=0.00825 (exp 0.0082, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortentry 66174invalidation 71137.05confidence 0
This is a calculation question about sizing an existing short position with a given stop and risk limit.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatriskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Calculating position size for existing short: risk = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = 71137.05 - 66174 = $4963.05; size = $40.94 / $4963.05 = 0.00825 BTC. Actual risk is capped at 1.25% as specified.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.0082entry 66174invalidation 71137.05riskPct 1.24confidence 0.5
Position sized to 0.0082 BTC to stay strictly within the 1.25% max risk rule, resulting in an actual account risk of 1.24%.
⊢ size=0.0082 (exp 0.0082, err 0.6%), riskPct=1.24
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.0082488riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Calculated size for the given short is 0.0082488 BTC risking 1.25% of equity, but standing flat due to choppy, no-edge market conditions per the mandate.
⊢ size=0.0082488 (exp 0.0082, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25