← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

HYPE pops on a perp listing rumor while order books thin out. Given: account $3725, short HYPE at 67.71, stop 70.76. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many HYPE do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in HYPE) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 15.266393442622894, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.27entry 67.71invalidation 70.76riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3725 = $46.56; stop distance = 3.05, so size = 46.56/3.05 ≈ 15.27 HYPE, risking the full 1.25%.
⊢ size=15.27 (exp 15.2664, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.27entry 67.71invalidation 70.76riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3725 = $46.56; stop distance = 70.76-67.71 = 3.05, so size = 46.56/3.05 ≈ 15.27 HYPE, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=15.27 (exp 15.2664, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.26639344262295riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per unit is $3.05, max risk $46.56, so size = 46.5625 / 3.05 = 15.27 HYPE, risking exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=15.26639344262295 (exp 15.2664, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.26riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Risk per HYPE = 70.76 - 67.71 = 3.05. Max risk = 3725 * 0.0125 = 46.5625. Size = 46.5625 / 3.05 ≈ 15.26 HYPE. Risk is exactly 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=15.26 (exp 15.2664, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.0028entry 67.71invalidation 70.76riskPct 0.9009confidence 1
Position size is capped by the hard rule limiting a single position's notional to 20% of equity ($745), which overrides the 1% risk limit and results in a 0.90% realized risk.
⊢ size=11.0028 (exp 15.2664, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9009
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.0028sizePct 0.2entry 67.71invalidation 70.76takeProfit 61.61leverage 1riskPct 0.9009rr 2confidence 1
The hard rules override the 1.25% house rule, capping risk at 1% and max notional at 20% ($745). The 20% notional limit is the bottleneck here, restricting the position size to 11.0028 HYPE and the actual risk to ~0.90%.
⊢ size=11.0028 (exp 15.2664, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9009
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.27entry 67.71invalidation 70.76leverage 0.28riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0.4
Size = (3725 × 0.0125) / (70.76 − 67.71) = 46.5625 / 3.05 ≈ 15.27 HYPE, risking exactly 1.25% of equity. Notional ≈ $1034 is ~27.7% of equity, breaching the 20% single-position notional cap, and the squeeze setup (popping price on listing rumor with thinning books) makes this short fragile — consider tightening the stop or reducing size.
⊢ size=15.27 (exp 15.2664, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.27entry 67.71invalidation 70.76riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Sizing based on 1.25% risk rule: size = (3725 × 0.0125) / (70.76 - 67.71) = 46.5625 / 3.05 ≈ 15.27 HYPE. riskPct = 1.25% by construction.
⊢ size=15.27 (exp 15.2664, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 12.2131147541riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Using the stricter mandate cap of 1% account risk: $3725 × 1% = $37.25. Stop distance is 70.76 - 67.71 = $3.05, so max size is 37.25 / 3.05 = 12.2131 HYPE.
⊢ size=12.2131147541 (exp 15.2664, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.0028riskPct 0.9009confidence 1
Using the stricter mandate, the 20% max notional cap is binding: $3725 * 0.20 = $745, so size is $745 / 67.71 = 11.0028 HYPE. With a $3.05 stop distance, this risks about $33.56, or 0.9009% of equity.
⊢ size=11.0028 (exp 15.2664, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9009
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 12.21entry 67.71invalidation 70.76riskPct 1confidence 0.5
Hard rule caps risk at 1% of equity ($37.25), overriding the stated 1.25% house rule. Size = $37.25 / (70.76 - 67.71) = 12.21 HYPE, realizing ~1.0% risk.
⊢ size=12.21 (exp 15.2664, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 11entry 67.71invalidation 70.76riskPct 0.9confidence 0.4
The 20% notional cap ($745) binds before the 1% hard-rule risk limit, capping size at 11 HYPE with 0.9% actual risk; thin order books on a rumor-driven pop reduce conviction and increase slippage risk.
⊢ size=11 (exp 15.2664, err 27.9%), riskPct=0.9
grok-4.3
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 12.21entry 67.71invalidation 70.76riskPct 1confidence 0.5
1% equity risk on 3.05 stop distance yields size 12.21 HYPE.
⊢ size=12.21 (exp 15.2664, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.27riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Risk budget 1.25% of 3725 equals 46.5625; distance 3.05 yields size 15.27 HYPE to keep realized risk exactly at 1.25%.
⊢ size=15.27 (exp 15.2664, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 154.7riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Shorting HYPE at 67.71 with stop at 70.76, risking 1.25% of $3725 ($46.56) gives a position size of ~154.7 HYPE. Risk per HYPE is $3.05 (70.76 - 67.71), so total risk = 154.7 * 3.05 = $471.835, which is 12.66% of account—this violates the 1% rule but complies with the 1.25% house rule. Confidence is moderate due to thin order books and volatility.
⊢ size=154.7 (exp 15.2664, err 913.3%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.44entry 67.71invalidation 70.76riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Calculated position size to risk exactly 1.25% of account equity ($46.56) based on the given stop distance (3.05 points).
⊢ size=15.44 (exp 15.2664, err 1.1%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 15.27entry 67.71invalidation 70.76riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position size calculated by dividing the 1.25% max risk amount ($46.56) by the stop distance ($3.05), resulting in 15.27 HYPE and an actual risk of 1.25% of account equity.
⊢ size=15.27 (exp 15.2664, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 12.21sizePct 0.221entry 67.71invalidation 70.76takeProfit 61.61leverage 3riskPct 1compliant truemaxNotional 745rr 2confidence 0.6
Hard rules cap risk at 1% of equity ($37.25), overriding the 1.25% house rule; size is 37.25 / 3.05 stop distance = 12.21 HYPE, risking exactly 1.0% of account.
⊢ size=12.21 (exp 15.2664, err 20.0%), riskPct=1