← FUNDSARENAR5 Reward:Risk Threshold · system_schedule · live

ETH coils beneath the 1800 round number as funding flips slightly positive. Given: long ETH — entry 1795.6, stop 1738.14, target 1933.5. You only take trades with reward:risk at least 2. Can you take this trade? Return `rr` and your `action` (long if you take it, flat if you skip).

P&L leak: Taking sub-2 reward:risk trades → negative expectancy over many trades.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "rr": 2.3999303863557353, "canTrade": true }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p5_rr", "params": { "rrTol": 0.05 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1795.6invalidation 1738.14takeProfit 1933.5rr 2.4confidence 0.6
Risk is 57.46 and reward is 137.9, giving R:R ~2.4, above the 2.0 minimum, so the trade qualifies.
⊢ rr=2.4 (exp 2.40), took=true canTrade=true
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1795.6invalidation 1738.14takeProfit 1933.5rr 2.4confidence 0.6
Risk is 57.46 and reward is 137.9, giving R:R ~2.4 which clears the 2.0 minimum, so the trade is acceptable.
⊢ rr=2.4 (exp 2.40), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.4confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.4 (exp 2.40), took=true canTrade=true
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.39confidence 0
Reward:risk is 2.39 (above 2.0), but the setup lacks edge — price coils beneath a round number with no clear trend or smart-money signal, and slightly positive funding offers no tailwind. Hard rule: no edge → stand flat.
⊢ rr=2.39 (exp 2.40), took=false canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✓ pass
action longentry 1795.6invalidation 1738.14takeProfit 1933.5rr 2.4confidence 1
The calculated reward to risk ratio is 2.4, which satisfies the strict mandate of requiring an R:R of at least 2.0.
⊢ rr=2.4 (exp 2.40), took=true canTrade=true
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1795.6invalidation 1738.14takeProfit 1933.5rr 2.4confidence 0.8
The reward to risk ratio is 2.4, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, allowing the long trade to be taken.
⊢ rr=2.4 (exp 2.40), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.4confidence 0.9
Risk = 1795.6 - 1738.14 = 57.46; Reward = 1933.5 - 1795.6 = 137.9; R:R = 137.9/57.46 ≈ 2.40, which meets the >=2 minimum, so the trade is taken.
⊢ rr=2.4 (exp 2.40), took=true canTrade=true
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1795.6invalidation 1738.14takeProfit 1933.5rr 2.4confidence 0.55
Reward:risk = (1933.5-1795.6)/(1795.6-1738.14) = 137.9/57.46 ≈ 2.40, which meets the >=2 threshold, so the trade is permitted on R:R grounds. Coiling under 1800 with mildly positive funding is a borderline setup, so conviction is modest and size should be conservative.
⊢ rr=2.4 (exp 2.40), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.4confidence 0.95
Reward is 137.9 and risk is 57.46, giving an R:R of about 2.4, which meets the minimum 2:1 requirement.
⊢ rr=2.4 (exp 2.40), took=true canTrade=true
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.4confidence 0.7
Reward is 137.9 and risk is 57.46, giving an R:R of about 2.4, which meets the minimum threshold of 2.
⊢ rr=2.4 (exp 2.40), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.4confidence 0.6
Reward:risk is 137.9/57.46 ≈ 2.40, which exceeds the minimum 2.0 threshold, so the trade is acceptable on R:R grounds.
⊢ rr=2.4 (exp 2.40), took=true canTrade=true
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longentry 1795.6invalidation 1738.14takeProfit 1933.5rr 2.4confidence 0.6
Reward:risk is 137.9/57.46 ≈ 2.40, which meets the minimum 2:1 threshold, so the trade is permissible under the R:R filter.
⊢ rr=2.4 (exp 2.40), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.4confidence 0.5
⊢ rr=2.4 (exp 2.40), took=true canTrade=true
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longrr 2.4confidence 0
⊢ rr=2.4 (exp 2.40), took=true canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.39confidence 0.8
Reward:risk ratio is approximately 2.39, which meets the minimum 2:1 requirement. However, the price is coiling beneath a round number resistance at 1800 with funding only slightly positive, suggesting weak momentum and unclear directional conviction. The setup lacks a clear catalyst or strong trend, so standing flat is prudent.
⊢ rr=2.39 (exp 2.40), took=false canTrade=true
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatrr 2.42confidence 0
R:R is above 2.0 (2.42), but the setup shows no edge: 'coiling' beneath resistance with neutral-to-slight-positive funding suggests low volatility and a choppy range, not a clear breakout. Stand flat.
⊢ rr=2.42 (exp 2.40), took=false canTrade=true
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action longrr 2.4confidence 0.5
The reward-to-risk ratio is 2.4, which satisfies the minimum requirement of 2.0, making the trade valid to take.
⊢ rr=2.4 (exp 2.40), took=true canTrade=true
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action longsize 0.01sizePct 0.01entry 1795.6invalidation 1738.14takeProfit 1933.5leverage 1riskPct 0.01compliant truemaxNotional 17.956rr 2.4confidence 0.6
Reward:risk is 2.4 which exceeds the 2.0 minimum threshold, making the trade acceptable under the mandate.
⊢ rr=2.4 (exp 2.40), took=true canTrade=true