← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

HYPE is grinding sideways near 66.52 as funding flips negative and shorts pile in. Given: account $3850, short HYPE at 66.52, stop 69.51. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many HYPE do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in HYPE) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 16.09531772575246, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 16.1entry 66.52invalidation 69.51riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = $2.99, so size = 48.13/2.99 ≈ 16.1 HYPE, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=16.1 (exp 16.0953, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 16.1entry 66.52invalidation 69.51riskPct 1.25confidence 0.55
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = 2.99, so size = 48.13/2.99 ≈ 16.1 HYPE, putting exactly 1.25% at risk.
⊢ size=16.1 (exp 16.0953, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 16.09entry 66.52invalidation 69.51riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Risk per unit is 2.99 (69.51 - 66.52). Max risk is 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125. Size = 48.125 / 2.99 ≈ 16.09 HYPE. RiskPct is exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=16.09 (exp 16.0953, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 16.1riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per HYPE is 2.99, account risk 1.25% = $48.125, so size = 48.125/2.99 ≈ 16.10 HYPE short, risking exactly 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=16.1 (exp 16.0953, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.575entry 66.52invalidation 69.51riskPct 0.899confidence 1
The 20% max notional hard rule caps the position at $770, limiting size to 11.575 HYPE. This results in a 0.899% risk, keeping us safely under the strict 1% risk limit despite the 1.25% suggestion.
⊢ size=11.575 (exp 16.0953, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.899
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.575entry 66.52invalidation 69.51riskPct 0.899confidence 1
Hard rules cap risk at 1% and notional at 20% of equity. The 20% notional limit ($770) is more restrictive than the 1% risk limit, capping size at 11.575 HYPE and realizing ~0.9% risk.
⊢ size=11.575 (exp 16.0953, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.899
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 16.1entry 66.52invalidation 69.51riskPct 1.25compliant falsemaxNotional 770confidence 0.5
Based on 1.25% risk rule: size = 48.125/2.99 = 16.10 HYPE, risk = 1.25%. However, notional = 16.10 × 66.52 = $1070.66, which exceeds the 20% notional cap ($770). To comply with mandate, size should be capped at 11.58 HYPE (risk 0.90%).
⊢ size=16.1 (exp 16.0953, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 16.09entry 66.52invalidation 69.51leverage 0.28riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0.5
Risk-based sizing: size = (1.25% × $3850) / $2.99 stop distance = 16.09 HYPE, risking exactly 1.25% of equity. However, notional of $1070 is 27.8% of equity, violating the 20% notional cap from the mandate.
⊢ size=16.09 (exp 16.0953, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 12.8762541806riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Stop distance is 2.99, and the mandate caps risk at 1% of the $3850 account, or $38.50. Position size is $38.50 / $2.99 = 12.8762541806 HYPE, putting 1.0% of equity at risk.
⊢ size=12.8762541806 (exp 16.0953, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 11.575466sizePct 0.2entry 66.52invalidation 69.51leverage 1riskPct 0.899004compliant truemaxNotional 770confidence 0.35
Using the stricter 1% mandate gives $38.50 max risk, but the 20% notional cap is tighter: $770 / 66.52 = 11.575466 HYPE. Actual risk is 11.575466 * 2.99 = $34.61, or 0.899% of the account.
⊢ size=11.575466 (exp 16.0953, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.899004
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action flatsize 16.0953riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0
Calculation: 1.25% of $3,850 = $48.125 risk / $2.99 stop distance = 16.0953 HYPE. Would not execute: 1.25% risk exceeds the 1% hard cap, and notional ($1,070.66) is 27.8% of equity, breaching the 20% single-position limit.
⊢ size=16.0953 (exp 16.0953, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 11.58entry 66.52invalidation 69.51riskPct 0.9confidence 0.2
Calculation: 1% hard-rule risk cap ($38.50) yields 12.88 HYPE, but the 20% notional limit ($770) is more binding, capping size at 11.58 HYPE with 0.90% actual risk. Standing flat because sideways grind, crowded shorts, and no defined take-profit give no edge.
⊢ size=11.58 (exp 16.0953, err 28.1%), riskPct=0.9
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 16.095riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Risk budget 48.125 USD on 2.99 $ distance yields size 16.095 HYPE at exactly 1.25% account risk.
⊢ size=16.095 (exp 16.0953, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 16.095riskPct 1.25confidence 0
⊢ size=16.095 (exp 16.0953, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortentry 66.52invalidation 69.51riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Funding flips negative with shorts piling in, suggesting potential short squeeze risk, but the 1.25% risk limit is the house rule. The stop at 69.51 defines a $2.99 risk per unit; to risk 1.25% of $3850 ($48.125), size = 48.125 / 2.99 ≈ 16.1 HYPE. However, the prompt asks only for size and riskPct, so I return those.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 16.1entry 66.52invalidation 69.51riskPct 1.25confidence 0.65
Sizing to hit the 1.25% risk cap given the 2.99-point stop distance. Funding flips negative with shorts piling in, suggesting a potential squeeze, so conviction is moderate.
⊢ size=16.1 (exp 16.0953, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 16.1entry 66.52invalidation 69.51riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk $48.125 (1.25% of $3850) divided by stop distance $2.99 yields 16.10 HYPE; actual risk equals 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=16.1 (exp 16.0953, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 16.1entry 66.52invalidation 69.51riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk $48.125 (1.25% of $3,850) divided by stop distance $2.99 equals ~16.1 HYPE; actual risk at that size is 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=16.1 (exp 16.0953, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25