← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

SOL chops sideways as traders eye a key support retest after a sharp morning fade. Given: account $3850, short SOL at 74.64, stop 78.19. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many SOL do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in SOL) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 13.556338028169025, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.55entry 74.64invalidation 78.19riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance $3.55 gives ~13.55 SOL, risking the full 1.25%.
⊢ size=13.55 (exp 13.5563, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.55entry 74.64invalidation 78.19takeProfit 67.54riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = $3.55, so size = 48.13/3.55 ≈ 13.55 SOL, risking exactly 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=13.55 (exp 13.5563, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.556338028169014entry 74.64invalidation 78.19leverage 1riskPct 1.25compliant trueconfidence 0.5
Max risk 1.25% of $3850 = $48.125. Stop distance = 78.19 - 74.64 = $3.55 per SOL. Size = $48.125 / $3.55 = 13.5563 SOL, risking exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=13.556338028169014 (exp 13.5563, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.556338entry 74.64invalidation 78.19riskPct 1.25compliant trueconfidence 0.5
With a stop distance of $3.55, risking 1.25% ($48.125) limits size to 13.56 SOL short, resulting in exactly 1.25% account risk.
⊢ size=13.556338 (exp 13.5563, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.316sizePct 0.2entry 74.64invalidation 78.19riskPct 0.951confidence 1
The 20% maximum notional rule ($770) is the binding constraint here, overriding both the suggested 1.25% and hard 1% risk limits. This caps the position at 10.316 SOL, resulting in a realized risk of 0.951%.
⊢ size=10.316 (exp 13.5563, err 23.9%), riskPct=0.951
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.31sizePct 0.2entry 74.64invalidation 78.19leverage 1riskPct 0.95maxNotional 770confidence 0.9
Position size is constrained by the 20% max notional rule ($770) rather than the 1% risk limit, resulting in a 10.31 SOL position and 0.95% risk.
⊢ size=10.31 (exp 13.5563, err 23.9%), riskPct=0.95
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.56riskPct 1.25confidence 0.9
Risk budget = 1.25% × $3850 = $48.125. Stop distance = 78.19 − 74.64 = $3.55. Size = 48.125 / 3.55 ≈ 13.56 SOL, putting exactly 1.25% of equity at risk. Note: notional ≈ $1,012 (~26% of equity) exceeds the 20% notional cap, so a stricter sizing cap of ~10.3 SOL would apply under the mandate.
⊢ size=13.56 (exp 13.5563, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.56entry 74.64invalidation 78.19riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per SOL = 78.19 - 74.64 = 3.55. Max dollar risk = 1.25% × $3850 = $48.125. Size = 48.125 / 3.55 ≈ 13.56 SOL, risking exactly 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=13.56 (exp 13.5563, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.31618435riskPct 0.95123258confidence 0.95
Although the stated house limit is 1.25%, the mandate caps trade risk at 1% and notional at 20% of equity. The 20% notional cap binds first: $770 / 74.64 = 10.31618435 SOL, risking about 0.9512% of equity with a $3.55 stop distance.
⊢ size=10.31618435 (exp 13.5563, err 23.9%), riskPct=0.95123258
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.8450704225riskPct 1confidence 0.5
Per-trade risk is 3.55 USDT per SOL; the stricter 1% mandate caps risk at 38.50 USDT, so size is 38.50 / 3.55 = 10.8451 SOL.
⊢ size=10.8450704225 (exp 13.5563, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.556entry 74.64invalidation 78.19riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk-based sizing: 1.25% of $3,850 equity is $48.125 max loss; divided by the $3.55 stop distance (78.19 - 74.64) yields 13.556 SOL, keeping actual risk at 1.25%.
⊢ size=13.556 (exp 13.5563, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.316entry 74.64invalidation 78.19riskPct 0.95confidence 0.5
Size is capped by the 20% max notional hard rule ($770), yielding 10.316 SOL and a realized risk of 0.95%, correctly overriding the suggested 1.25% risk to satisfy both the 1% max risk and 20% max notional limits.
⊢ size=10.316 (exp 13.5563, err 23.9%), riskPct=0.95
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.556riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Position size capped at house-rule 1.25% risk; 48.125 USD risk budget divided by 3.55 stop distance yields 13.556 SOL.
⊢ size=13.556 (exp 13.5563, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.556riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk budget 3850*0.0125=48.125; per-SOL risk 3.55 yields size 48.125/3.55.
⊢ size=13.556 (exp 13.5563, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.62entry 74.64invalidation 78.19riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risking 1.25% of $3850 ($48.125) on a $3.55 stop distance yields a position of ~13.62 SOL.
⊢ size=13.62 (exp 13.5563, err 0.5%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 13.76riskPct 1.25confidence 0.7
Position size calculated from house rule: stop distance is 3.55, max risk is $48.125, so size = 13.76 SOL. Actual risk is 1.25% as specified.
⊢ size=13.76 (exp 13.5563, err 1.5%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 13.5563entry 74.64invalidation 78.19riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position size is calculated by dividing the maximum risk amount ($3850 * 1.25% = $48.125) by the stop distance ($78.19 - $74.64 = $3.55), resulting in 13.5563 SOL and an exact risk of 1.25%.
⊢ size=13.5563 (exp 13.5563, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 10.32entry 74.64invalidation 78.19riskPct 0.95confidence 0.5
Position sized to notional cap (20% of equity) as risk-based size exceeds mandate limit; actual risk 0.95% of equity.
⊢ size=10.32 (exp 13.5563, err 23.9%), riskPct=0.95