← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

ETH chops near 1759 as traders eye a possible breakout from the descending wedge. Given: account $3275, short ETH at 1759.1, stop 1801.32. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many ETH do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in ETH) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.9696234012316431, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.9699entry 1759.1invalidation 1801.32riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance = $42.22, so size = 40.94/42.22 = 0.97 ETH, risking 1.25% of equity.
⊢ size=0.9699 (exp 0.9696, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.9699entry 1759.1invalidation 1801.32riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94; stop distance is $42.22, so size = 40.94/42.22 ≈ 0.97 ETH, risking exactly 1.25% of the account.
⊢ size=0.9699 (exp 0.9696, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.9697entry 1759.1invalidation 1801.32riskPct 1.25compliant trueconfidence 0.8
Short ETH from 1759.1 with stop at 1801.32, risking $42.22 per ETH. Maximum risk is 1.25% of $3275 = $40.9375, so size = 40.9375/42.22 = 0.9697 ETH, risking exactly 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.9697 (exp 0.9696, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.9697riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Max size of 0.9697 ETH risks exactly 1.25% of the $3275 account with a $42.22 stop distance (1801.32 - 1759.1).
⊢ size=0.9697 (exp 0.9696, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.3723entry 1759.1invalidation 1801.32riskPct 0.48confidence 1
Position size is constrained by the 20% max notional rule ($655), resulting in 0.3723 ETH and a realized risk of 0.48%.
⊢ size=0.3723 (exp 0.9696, err 61.6%), riskPct=0.48
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.3723sizePct 0.2entry 1759.1invalidation 1801.32riskPct 0.48confidence 0.9
While the stop distance and 1% hard risk rule would allow a larger size, the 20% maximum notional rule caps the position at $655, resulting in a size of 0.3723 ETH and an actual risk of 0.48%.
⊢ size=0.3723 (exp 0.9696, err 61.6%), riskPct=0.48
minimax-m3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.9696entry 1759.1invalidation 1801.32riskPct 1.25confidence 0.95
Risk per ETH = 1801.32 - 1759.1 = 42.22. Max risk = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94. Size = 40.94 / 42.22 ≈ 0.97 ETH. RiskPct is 1.25% by construction. Note: resulting notional (~0.97 * 1759 ≈ $1706) exceeds the 20% notional cap, which would need to be reconciled separately.
⊢ size=0.9696 (exp 0.9696, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.0969entry 1759.1invalidation 1801.32riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk per ETH = 1801.32 - 1759.1 = 42.22. Max risk = 1.25% of $3275 = $40.9375. Size = 40.9375 / 42.22 ≈ 0.969 ETH? Wait, recalc: 40.9375/42.22 = 0.9697 ETH. That seems too large. Let me recheck: 0.9697 ETH * 42.22 = $40.94 risk. Yes correct. So size ≈ 0.97 ETH, risk = 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=0.0969 (exp 0.9696, err 90.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.7757riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Using the stricter 1% mandate cap, max risk is $32.75 and stop distance is $42.22, so size is 32.75 / 42.22 = 0.7757 ETH. The requested 1.25% house-rule sizing would exceed the mandate risk limit.
⊢ size=0.7757 (exp 0.9696, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.77569riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Position size is capped by the stricter 1% mandate: $3275 × 1% / ($1801.32 - $1759.10) = 0.77569 ETH. This risks approximately 1.0% of account equity.
⊢ size=0.77569 (exp 0.9696, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.3723entry 1759.1invalidation 1801.32riskPct 0.48confidence 0.5
Hard rules cap notional at 20% of equity ($655), limiting size to 0.3723 ETH and actual risk to 0.48%, overriding the prompt's 1.25% house rule.
⊢ size=0.3723 (exp 0.9696, err 61.6%), riskPct=0.48
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.3723entry 1759.1invalidation 1801.32riskPct 0.48compliant truemaxNotional 655confidence 0.5
Position size is constrained by the hard rule that a single position's notional must not exceed 20% of equity ($655), limiting the short size to 0.3723 ETH and resulting in an actual risk of 0.48%, safely below the 1% maximum risk limit.
⊢ size=0.3723 (exp 0.9696, err 61.6%), riskPct=0.48
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.97riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Size to risk exactly 1.25% ($40.94) given 42.22 stop distance yields ~0.97 ETH.
⊢ size=0.97 (exp 0.9696, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.97entry 1759.1invalidation 1801.32riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Size set to cap risk at house-rule 1.25% given 42.22 $ stop distance on $3275 account.
⊢ size=0.97 (exp 0.9696, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.966entry 1759.1invalidation 1801.32riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
House rule risk of 1.25% of $3275 = $40.94. Stop distance = 1801.32 - 1759.1 = 42.22. Size = $40.94 / 42.22 = 0.97 ETH.
⊢ size=0.966 (exp 0.9696, err 0.4%), riskPct=1.25
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.963entry 1759.1invalidation 1801.32riskPct 1.25confidence 0.55
House rule caps risk at 1.25% of account; size computed from account equity and stop distance.
⊢ size=0.963 (exp 0.9696, err 0.7%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.97sizePct 0.52entry 1759.1invalidation 1801.32takeProfit 1674.66leverage 1riskPct 1.25compliant falsemaxNotional 655rr 2confidence 0.8
Position sized to the 1.25% house risk rule over the 42.22 stop distance yields 0.9700 ETH, risking exactly 1.25% of account equity.
⊢ size=0.97 (exp 0.9696, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.9696entry 1759.1invalidation 1801.32riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Position size calculated by dividing the 1.25% max risk amount ($40.94) by the stop distance ($42.22), resulting in 0.9696 ETH and an actual risk of 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.9696 (exp 0.9696, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25