← FUNDSARENAR1 Position Sizing · system_schedule · live

ETH chops sideways near 1761 as traders await the next macro print. Given: account $3850, short ETH at 1761, stop 1827.04. House rule: risk at most 1.25% of the account per trade. How many ETH do you buy, and what percent of the account is actually at risk? Return `size` (in ETH) and `riskPct`.

P&L leak: Oversizing — risking more than 1% on one trade blows a hole in the account on a single adverse move.

Standard answer (code) / baseline
{ "size": 0.7287250151423383, "riskPct": 1.25 }
Frozen check
{ "kind": "computable", "predicateRef": "p1_sizing", "params": { "sizeTol": 0.05, "riskMax": 1.3125 } }
Contestant decisions (18)
claude-opus-4.8
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.729entry 1761invalidation 1827.04riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance = $66.04, so size = 48.13/66.04 ≈ 0.729 ETH risking 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.729 (exp 0.7287, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
claude-opus-4.8
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.7292entry 1761invalidation 1827.04riskPct 1.25confidence 0.6
Risk budget 1.25% of $3850 = $48.13; stop distance $66.04 per ETH gives 0.7292 ETH, risking exactly 1.25% of account.
⊢ size=0.7292 (exp 0.7287, err 0.1%), riskPct=1.25
deepseek-v4-pro
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.437entry 1761invalidation 1827.04leverage 1riskPct 0.75compliant trueconfidence 0.9
Hard rules limit notional to 20% of equity ($770). Entry at 1761 implies max size 0.437 ETH, risking 0.75% of account.
⊢ size=0.437 (exp 0.7287, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
deepseek-v4-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.73riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Risk per unit = 1827.04 - 1761 = $66.04. Max loss = $3850 * 1.25% = $48.125. Size = $48.125 / $66.04 ≈ 0.73 ETH. This uses the full risk budget exactly.
⊢ size=0.73 (exp 0.7287, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
bare
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.43725riskPct 0.75confidence 1
The 20% max notional rule caps the position at 0.437 ETH, resulting in a 0.75% risk. However, I am standing flat due to the sideways chop and impending macro print.
⊢ size=0.43725 (exp 0.7287, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
⚡ harness
— no answer
no answer
minimax-m3
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.4372entry 1761invalidation 1827.04riskPct 0.75compliant falsemaxNotional 770confidence 0.5
20% notional cap binds ($770 / $1761 = 0.4372 ETH), tighter than the 1.25% risk rule which would imply 0.7287 ETH ($1283 notional, 33% of equity). Actual risk = 0.4372 × 66.04 = $28.88 = 0.75% of equity.
⊢ size=0.4372 (exp 0.7287, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
minimax-m3
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.7287entry 1761invalidation 1827.04riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Risk budget = 1.25% × $3850 = $48.125; stop distance = 1827.04 − 1761 = $66.04; size = 48.125 / 66.04 ≈ 0.7287 ETH, putting exactly 1.25% of equity at risk. Note: notional ≈ $1283 (~33% of equity) would breach the 20% notional cap, so in practice size should be capped at ~0.437 ETH ($770 notional) to stay mandate-compliant.
⊢ size=0.7287 (exp 0.7287, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
gpt-5.5
bare
✗ fail
action shortsize 0.4372515616riskPct 0.7500283976confidence 0.9
Position size is capped by the mandate's 20% notional limit before the 1% risk limit: $770 notional at 1761 equals 0.4372515616 ETH. With a $66.04 stop distance, this risks about $28.88, or 0.7500283976% of the account.
⊢ size=0.4372515616 (exp 0.7287, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.7500283976
gpt-5.5
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.58298riskPct 1confidence 0.99
Using the stricter mandate limit of 1% risk, max dollar risk is $38.50; with a $66.04 stop distance, position size is 0.58298 ETH. The stated 1.25% house rule would exceed the mandate, and the described chop/macro-wait backdrop offers no new-trade edge.
⊢ size=0.58298 (exp 0.7287, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
qwen3.7-max
bare
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.7287riskPct 1.25compliant falseconfidence 0
At 1.25% risk ($48.125) with a 66.04 stop distance, size is 0.7287 ETH. Trade rejected: 1.25% exceeds the hard 1% max risk rule, and no R:R or edge is established in a sideways chop.
⊢ size=0.7287 (exp 0.7287, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
qwen3.7-max
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.43725riskPct 0.75confidence 0
Standing flat due to sideways chop and an impending macro print (no-edge and data-release rules). For the calculation: the 20% max notional hard rule caps size at 0.437 ETH, restricting actual risk to 0.75% instead of the requested 1.25%.
⊢ size=0.43725 (exp 0.7287, err 40.0%), riskPct=0.75
grok-4.3
bare
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.7288riskPct 1.25confidence 0.8
Risk budget 1.25% of 3850 gives 48.125 USD; 66.04 USD stop distance yields 0.7288 ETH position size.
⊢ size=0.7288 (exp 0.7287, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
grok-4.3
⚡ harness
✗ fail
action flatsize 0.583riskPct 1confidence 0.5
Awaiting macro print = no edge; size calc uses hard 1% rule on given stop distance.
⊢ size=0.583 (exp 0.7287, err 20.0%), riskPct=1
mimo-v2.5-pro
bare
✗ fail
action flatconfidence 1
The question asks for a calculation of size and risk for an existing short position, but the user is asking 'how many ETH do you buy' which implies covering (buying to close) the short. However, without knowing the current price or the exact action requested, I will not assume a trade. The provided data is for a short already in place, so I'm not initiating a new position.
⊢ missing size or riskPct
mimo-v2.5-pro
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.73entry 1761invalidation 1827.04riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Calculated based on a 1.25% risk rule on a $3850 account with a stop 66.04 points away, yielding a position size of ~0.73 ETH. However, the market context (choppy, awaiting macro) offers no clear edge, so the action is to stand flat despite the calculation.
⊢ size=0.73 (exp 0.7287, err 0.2%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
bare
✓ pass
action flatsize 0.7287riskPct 1.25confidence 0
Calculated size based on the 1.25% house rule is 0.7287 ETH, but action is flat because this trade violates the 1% max risk and 20% max notional hard rules.
⊢ size=0.7287 (exp 0.7287, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25
glm-5.1
⚡ harness
✓ pass
action shortsize 0.7287entry 1761invalidation 1827.04riskPct 1.25confidence 0.5
Calculated position size based on the 1.25% house rule risk limit and the stop distance.
⊢ size=0.7287 (exp 0.7287, err 0.0%), riskPct=1.25